Impact of day of the week effect on All Share Price Index (ASPI) and a comparison of forecastability of GARCH and NARX models

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
S.S.M. Silva ◽  
C.D. Tilakaratne ◽  
R. Munasinghe
Keyword(s):  
Price Index ◽  
Share Price ◽  
Narx Models ◽  
Day Of The Week

scholarly journals Do Macroeconomic Variables Influence Domestic Stock Market Price Behaviour in Emerging Markets? A Johansen Cointegration Approach to the Botswana Stock Market

2014 ◽  
Vol 6 (5) ◽  
pp. 363-372 ◽  
Author(s):  
Onneetse L. Sikalao-Lekobane
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Market Price ◽  
Share Price ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Bond Yield ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Equilibrium Relationship ◽  
Us Government

The ability of the stock market to reflect real economic activities through fundamental macroeconomic variables in emerging markets remains paramount considering the role of stock markets in the financial system. This paper explores the long-term equilibrium relationship between the Botswana stock market price and selected domestic and global macroeconomic variables using quarterly data for the period 1998 to 2012. The selected macroeconomic variables included Gross Domestic Product (GDP), long and short-term interest rates, money supply, foreign reserves, inflation, diamond price index, exchange rate, US share price index and 10 Year US government bond yield. The paper employs VECM framework following Johansen’s cointegration technique. The analysis revealed that macroeconomic variables and the stock market price are cointegrated, hence, a long-run equilibrium relationship existed between them. The results showed that in the long run, real GDP, short-term interest rates, inflation and diamond index are positively related with stock market price. However, long-term real interest rate, money supply, foreign reserves, exchange rate, US share price index and US government bond yield are negatively related with stock market price in the long run.

scholarly journals ANALISIS PENGARUH CAPITAL FLOW TERHADAP NILAI TUKAR DAN INDEKS HARGA SAHAM GABUNGAN (IHSG) TAHUN 2011 — 2014

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Herry Budisusetyo
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Significant Influence ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Capital Flow ◽  
Share Price ◽  
Analysis Technique ◽  
Stock Price Index

<p class="Style1"><em>This study aims to see the effect of net capital flow on rupiah exchange rate and </em><em>Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG) in Indonesia. The type of data is time series </em><em>period January 2011 until December 2014. Analysis technique used is single linear </em><em>regression. The result of thif research is positive and significant influence of net capital </em><em>flcw to rupiah exchange rate and composite share price index in Indonesia.</em></p>

scholarly journals Pengaruh Suku Bunga, Nilai Tukar Rupiah, Inflasi Dan Harga Minyak Dunia Terhadap Ihsg Di Bei

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Reagan Wijaya Sumitra
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Sampling Technique ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Share Price ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Negative Effect

This research is to analyze the influence of macroeconomic towards composite share price index in Indonesia. This research is an explanatory research with quantitative paradigm. This research is using secondary data and the sample determined by full sampling technique based on time series date that has been accessed on official website of Bank Indonesia and finance yahoo year 2013 to 2017 which is consist of 60 samples. This research used multiple linier regression analysis. Based on classic assumption test, the datas in this research has been comply the assumption. Based on the multiple linier regression test, exchange rates and crude oil price has positive effect, whereas the inflation and interest rates has negative effect on composite share price index. Based on R2 test, 73,3 %  of composite share price index influenced by interest rates, exchange rates, inflation and crude oil price. Based on F test, macro economic factors simultantly influence composite share price index. Based on t test, interest rates and exchange rates has a significant effect on composite share price index, whereas the inflation and crude oil price did not have significant effect on composite share price index.

scholarly journals INFLUENCE INFLATION OF COMPOSITE STOCK SHARE PRICE INDEX LISTED IN BEI JAKARTA

2017 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nurhana Dhea Parlina
Keyword(s):  
Key Words ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Economic Factor ◽  
Share Price ◽  
Rate Data ◽  
Index Data ◽  
Inflation Rates ◽  
The One ◽  
Stock Share

Inflation is factor that influence the (IHSG) Composite Stock Share Price Index. Above also explains, if Inflation rates rise then the Composite Stock Share Price Index will go up, but we see that the theory will not be the same forever with the practice or application. For that we intend to see if it was true what was mentioned by the theory. To find out we took Composite Stock Share Price Index data that listed on BEI Jakarta from the period 1 January 2013 - until 31 December 2015. Then we took the Inflation rate data from the period 1 January 2013 - until 31 December 2015.Inflation is the one of economic factor can influence Composite Stock Share Price Index. If the inflation more high than before it can impact of Composite Stock Share Price Index. Otherwise, In this study we will examine Composite Stock Share Price Index from the results obtained output of coefficient over than 0.05 as much as 0.159 so the final inflation isn’t influence of Composite Stock Share Price. Key Words: Inflation and Composite Stock Share Price Index.

scholarly journals Evaluation of the Impact of Macroeconomic Variables on Stock Market Performance in Nigeria

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 34 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cordelia Onyinyechi Omodero ◽  
Sunday Mlanga
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Market Performance ◽  
Share Price ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Stock Market Performance ◽  
The Impact

Stock market is an essential part of a nation’s economy and requires adequate evaluation of all factors that militate against its performance. This study investigates the role of macroeconomic variables in determining the stock market performance in Nigeria using annual time series data covering a period from 2009 to 2018. These data have been sourced from the World Bank Development Indicators, International Monetary Fund and CBN Statistical Bulletin. The results from the regression analysis indicate that exchange rate and interest rate do not have significant impact on share price index while inflation rate exerts a significant negative influence on share price index. On the contrary and in line with the concept of GDP and stock market performance, GDP significantly and positively impacts on share price index. The study among others suggests that the growth of the economy should be maintained to keep stock market flourishing while macroeconomic variables such as inflation, interest rate and exchange rate should be appropriately regulated by the relevant authorities to curtail all negative influences on stock market performance.

scholarly journals Forecasting Analysis of Share Price Index in Construction Companies Registered in Indonesia Stock Exchange 2015-2019

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 42-63
Author(s):  
Karnila Ali
Keyword(s):  
Stock Price ◽  
Average Method ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Share Price ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Construction Companies ◽  
Stock Price Index

Stock is one of the investment instruments that many investors choose, both short and long term. Meanwhile, the stock price index is an essential indicator for investors deciding whether to buy, sell, or hold the stock. This study aims to determine what methods are suitable for predicting the Stock Price Index of Construction Companies Listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange in 2015-2019. By selecting a model that matches the existing time series data, to evaluate the results of the forecasting, the researcher uses a measure of accuracy with Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD), and Mean Squared Deviation (MSD). This type of research is a quantitative study with a research population of 16 companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. Only four samples were used that fit the specified criteria, and only five years of research were conducted, namely in 2015 to 2019. data can be seen from historical data or actual data and tested using Minitab software version 19. The results showed that Double Exponential Smoothing (Holt's) and Double Moving Average Method could be used to forecast the Construction Company Stock Price Index. Obtaining the smallest error value of the four construction companies, namely WSKT company with MAPE = 7.3, MAD = 148.8, and MSD = 40506.0 for the Holt'sand MAPE method = 5.3, MAD = 110.1, and MSD = 22006.9 for the Double Moving Average method.

Movements in a Share Price Index

1969 ◽  
pp. 40-46
Author(s):  
O. B. Chedzoy ◽  
Sandra E. Ford
Keyword(s):  
Price Index ◽  
Share Price ◽  
A Share
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