Risk management in Supply Chain Based on Conditional Value at Risk Control: Modeling, Strategies and Case Study in China

2006 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wang Zongrun ◽  
Zhou Yanju
Keyword(s):  
At Risk ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Supply Chain ◽  
Value At Risk ◽  
Risk Control ◽  
Conditional Value At Risk ◽  
Control Modeling

Worst Expected Best method for assessment of probabilistic network expected value at risk: application in supply chain risk management

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Abroon Qazi ◽  
Mecit Can Emre Simsekler
Keyword(s):  
At Risk ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Supply Chain ◽  
Confidence Level ◽  
Value At Risk ◽  
Supply Chain Risk Management ◽  
Supply Chain Risk ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Probabilistic Network ◽  
Risk Appetite

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to develop and operationalize a process for prioritizing supply chain risks that is capable of capturing the value at risk (VaR), the maximum loss expected at a given confidence level for a specified timeframe associated with risks within a network setting.Design/methodology/approachThe proposed “Worst Expected Best” method is theoretically grounded in the framework of Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs), which is considered an effective technique for modeling interdependency across uncertain variables. An algorithm is developed to operationalize the proposed method, which is demonstrated using a simulation model.FindingsPoint estimate-based methods used for aggregating the network expected loss for a given supply chain risk network are unable to project the realistic risk exposure associated with a supply chain. The proposed method helps in establishing the expected network-wide loss for a given confidence level. The vulnerability and resilience-based risk prioritization schemes for the model considered in this paper have a very weak correlation.Originality/valueThis paper introduces a new “Worst Expected Best” method to the literature on supply chain risk management that helps in assessing the probabilistic network expected VaR for a given supply chain risk network. Further, new risk metrics are proposed to prioritize risks relative to a specific VaR that reflects the decision-maker's risk appetite.

Wholesale Price for Supply Chain Coordination via Conditional Value-at-Risk Minimization

2010 ◽  
Vol 20-23 ◽  
pp. 88-93 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chuan Xu Wang
Keyword(s):  
At Risk ◽  
Supply Chain ◽  
Value At Risk ◽  
Supply Chain Coordination ◽  
Wholesale Price ◽  
Conditional Value At Risk ◽  
Optimal Order ◽  
Individual Member ◽  
Risk Minimization ◽  
Proposed Model

The theory of the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) in financial risk management is considered in this paper to develop a model of supply chain coordination with a wholesale pricing policy. The proposed model solves the drawbacks of objective function in current supply chain coordination model. A numerical example is given to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model. The following helpful conclusions are drawn from the paper: with the increase of the degree of risk averting for supply chain individual member, the optimal order quantity of supply chain is decreasing, while the optimal profit is decreasing; If supplier’s risk averting degree increases, supplier has to increase wholesale price to achieve supply chain coordination; If retailer’s risk averting degree increases, supplier has to decrease wholesale price to achieve supply chain coordination.

scholarly journals Risk assessment for ancillary services

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 1561
Author(s):  
Omer Hadzic ◽  
Smajo Bisanovic
Keyword(s):  
At Risk ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Power System ◽  
Value At Risk ◽  
Financial Risk ◽  
Risk Measures ◽  
Ancillary Services ◽  
Conditional Value At Risk ◽  
Risk Optimization ◽  
System Risk

The power trading and ancillary services provision comprise technical and financial risks and therefore require a structured risk management. Focus in this paper is on financial risk management that is important for the system operator faces when providing and using ancillary services for balancing of power system. Risk on ancillary services portfolio is modeled through value at risk and conditional value at risk measures. The application of these risk measures in power system is given in detail to show how to using the risk concept in practice. Conditional value at risk optimization is analysed in the context of portfolio selection and how to apply this optimization for hedging a portfolio consisting of different types of ancillary services.

scholarly journals Концепт параметра вриједности при ризику и контрола ризика у Црној Гори // The concept of value at risk (VaR) and risk regulatory in Montenegro

2014 ◽  
Vol 12 (21) ◽  
pp. 105
Author(s):  
Јулија Церовић
Keyword(s):  
At Risk ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Value At Risk ◽  
Financial Risk ◽  
Financial Time Series ◽  
Risk Measures ◽  
Risk Control ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Risk Characteristics ◽  
Managing Risk

Резиме: Концепт вриједности при ризику (Value at risk - VaR) је мјера која се све више користи за оцјену степена изложености ризику учесника на финансијским тржиштима. Циљ овог концепта који је почео да преовладава у свијету управљања ризиком од 1994. године, јесте оцјена максималног губитка финансијске позиције у одређеном временском периоду за дату вјероватноћу. Постоји велики број мјера које квантификују ризик, и циљ рада је да се ове мјере изложе, са посебним акцентом на VaR. Такође, код мјерења финансијског ризика треба имати у виду особине финансијских временских серија, па су стога посебно истакнуте у раду. Други дио рада објашњава како су ове мјере ризика обухваћене правном регулативом у контроли ризика. Задатак рада је да се анализира контрола ризика у Црној Гори, као и важност стандарда који су на снази, у доприносу побољшања контроле ризика. Идеја рада је мотивисана жељом да се у Црној Гори озбиљније приступи квантификовању ризика, као и самом управљању ризиком. У наредном периоду, у оквиру мјера Централне банке Црне Горе за јачање финансијског система, континуирано ће се пратити и анализирати стање у банкарском систему, уз предузимање благовремених корективних мјера у управљању ризицима у банкама, као и даља имплементација међународно прихваћених стандарда и принципа пословања у овој области.Summary: The concept of value at risk (Value at Risk - VaR) is a measure that is increasingly used for assessing the level of exposure of financial markets’ participants. The aim of this concept, which has begun to prevail in the world of risk management since 1994, is estimation of the maximum loss of financial position at a given time for a given probability. Many methods have been developed to quantify risk. There are a number of measures to quantify the risk, and the aim of this paper is to expose these measures, with special emphasis on VaR. Also, when measuring financial risk, characteristics of financial time series should be taken into account, and therefore are particularly prominent in the work. The second part of the paper explains how these risk measures are covered by the regulations in risk control. The task of this paper is to analyze the risk control in Montenegro, and the importance of standards in force in contribution to the improvement of risk control. The idea of this paper is motivated by the desire to approach quantifying and managing risk in Montenegro more seriously. In the future, within the framework of the measures of the Central Bank to strengthen the financial system, the situation in the banking system will be continuously monitored and analyzed, by taking timely corrective measures in risk management in banks, as well as the further implementation of internationally accepted standards and principles in this field.

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