The Study on the Real Option Decision-Making Model for Investment Value of Water Project

2009 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jie Zhang ◽  
Lianfen Yang ◽  
Jigan Wang
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Real Option ◽  
Water Project ◽  
The Real ◽  
Investment Value ◽  
Value Of Water ◽  
Decision Making Model

SELECTING SUITABLE STUDENTS FOR JOB BASED ON THEIR CAPACITY

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 0-0
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Digital Transformation ◽  
Knowledge And Skills ◽  
The Real ◽  
Urgent Task ◽  
Crucial Problem ◽  
Insightful Analysis ◽  
Decision Making Model

Nowadays, digital transformation in education is an important and urgent task in most of universities. This process brings many benefits to both teacher and student, particularly job for a graduate. Consequently, how to help a last-year student has a suitable job becomes a crucial problem. To advise learner to select a suitable job, we need an insightful analysis of learner’s capacity. Thus, in this paper, we propose a method which uses student’s knowledge and skills data to choose the best suitable students for a job requirement. Firstly, learner’s capacity is evaluated by subject marks and activities in school, therefore, both subject and activity are described as the structure of obtainable skills and knowledge. Then, we also describe a job requirement as a set of skills and knowledge. In the next step, we calculate the real capacity of the student. Finally, we find students who have the real capacity meet the job requirement by applying decision making model.

scholarly journals Uma Aplicação de Opções Reais na Avaliação de Licença de Prestação de Serviços de Telefonia Móvel 3G no Brasil

2010 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 329
Author(s):  
Rafael Stille ◽  
Celso Funcia Lemme ◽  
Luiz Eduardo Teixeira Brandão
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Real Option ◽  
Telecommunications Industry ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Discounted Cash Flow ◽  
The Real ◽  
Real Options Approach ◽  
Mobile Phone System ◽  
Real Option Method ◽  
3G Mobile Phone

We analyze the contributions of the real option method to the decision making process in the telecommunications industry. We study the case of a public auction purchase of the license to operate a 3G mobile phone system in Brazil. The results indicate that the embedded flexibilities increase the value of the project by 64% in relative to the discounted cash flow method, which could justify the high premiums paid by the winning firms, which are incompatible with the value obtained from traditional methods of analysis. This suggests that the real options approach used, which can be easily replicated and is fairly intuitive, can be a useful tool to support the decision making process of these firms.

scholarly journals Incorporating Overconfidence into Real Option Decision-Making Model of Metal Mineral Resources Mining Project

2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 ◽  
pp. 1-11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jian-bai Huang ◽  
Na Tan ◽  
Mei-rui Zhong
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Real Option ◽  
Mineral Resources ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Optimal Decision ◽  
Evaluation Theory ◽  
Mining Project ◽  
Option Model ◽  
Decision Making Model ◽  
Psychological Bias

As for uncertainties and decision-makers’ overconfidence psychological bias, overconfidence has been incorporated into real option decision-making model of metal mineral resources mining to estimate its effect on decision-making of the project and thus a behavioral real option decision-making model of metal mineral resources mining based on overconfidence has been established. Furthermore, numerical simulation and sensitivity analysis have been conducted to verify the practicality of the model. Results show that model in this paper has greatly changed trigger value and option value of mineral resources mining project compared with traditional real option model, thus greatly changing optimal decision results. Incorporating overconfidence into real option decision-making model of metal mineral resources development is a crucial extension of project evaluation theory.

scholarly journals Optimization of Tourism Real Estate Development Project Based on Option Premium Model

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-8
Author(s):  
Donglei Ying
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Real Estate ◽  
Real Option ◽  
Investment Decision ◽  
Case Analysis ◽  
Distribution Model ◽  
The Real ◽  
Investment Decision Making ◽  
Real Estate Project ◽  
Option Model

Compared with that of traditional housing real estate, the development of tourism real estate is time-consuming, complex, and irreversible. It is hard to guide investment decision-making on tourism real estate with the conventional discount cash flow (DCF) method. This paper aims to demonstrate that the real option method can improve and optimize the investment decision-making on tourism real estate. Through case analysis, the real option model, i.e., the classic American real option model, and binary tree value distribution model were adopted to analyze the factors affecting the real option of tourism real estate, optimize the development sequence of tourism real estate project, and demonstrate the phased development value of tourism real state, thereby enhancing the development value of tourism real estate projects. The case analysis proves that tourism real estate investment is fully consistent with real option in the uncertain spatiotemporal attributes: uncertainty, irreversibility, and timeliness. Therefore, tourism real estate project carries obvious features of real option. The decision-making by the real option model is much more scientific and superior than that by the conventional DCF method. Since the application of real option theory has been emphasizing housing real estate over tourism real estate, the research results enrich the theory on real option-based investment decision-making for real estate and expand the application scope of real option.

scholarly journals Real-world decision making in the upstream oil and gas industry—prescriptions for improvement

2008 ◽  
Vol 48 (1) ◽  
pp. 329
Author(s):  
Steve I Mackie ◽  
Steve H Begg ◽  
Chris Smith ◽  
Matthew Welsh
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Real World ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Oil And Gas Industry ◽  
Gas Industry ◽  
The Real ◽  
Decision Outcomes ◽  
Decision Making Processes ◽  
Decision Making Model

Business under-performance in the upstream oil and gas industry, and the failure of many decisions to return anticipated results, has led to a growing interest in the past few years in understanding the impacts of decision-making processes and their relationship with decision outcomes. Improving oil and gas decision making is, thus, increasingly seen as reliant on an understanding of the processes of decision making in the real world. There has been significant work carried out within the discipline of cognitive psychology, observing how people actually make decisions; however, little is known as to whether these general observations apply to decision making in the upstream oil and gas industry. This paper is a step towards filling this gap by developing the theme of decision-making process. It documents a theoretical decision-making model and a real-world decision-making model that has been distilled from interviews with many Australian upstream oil and gas professionals. The context of discussion is to review the theoretical model (how people should make decisions) and the real-world model (how people do make decisions). By comparing and contrasting the two models we develop a prescriptive list of how to improve the quality of decisions in practice, specifically as it applies in the upstream oil and gas industry.

scholarly journals Evaluating the Investment Projects of Spinal Medical Device Firms Using the Real Option and DANP-mV Based MCDM Methods

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (9) ◽  
pp. 3335 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chi-Yo Huang ◽  
Hong-Ling Hsieh ◽  
Hueiling Chen
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Medical Device ◽  
Medical Devices ◽  
Real Option ◽  
Analytical Framework ◽  
The United States ◽  
The Real ◽  
Investment Projects ◽  
Qualitative Factors ◽  
Real Option Method

In an era of global aging, spinal and other joint degeneration issues have become a major problem for many elders. Bone-related operations have become the largest percentage of surgeries, accounting for 40% of the top 10 operations in the United States. Further, these spine-related operations are now ranked second among all bone-related operations. Due to this enormous and daily increasing market demand, more and more firms have started to pay closer attention to related medical devices and products. The global venture capitalists (VCs) have also started to follow the mega trend and will continue to invest heavily in this industry. Although most VCs recognize that investing in firms that produce innovative spinal products or devices is a must, very few practical managers or research scholars have defined the appropriate evaluation methods for these firms to use. The traditional net present value (NPV) method, which does not consider operation flexibility and changes in strategy, is far from the reality. The real option method can reveal the vagueness and flexibilities of the values being embedded in the investment projects at spinal medical device firms. However, the real option method is strictly quantitative. Usually, the evaluation aspects contain qualitative factors or local criteria which are hard to quantify in monetary terms. Thus, the adoption of multiple criteria decision making (MCDM) methods that can manipulate both quantitative and qualitative factors will be very helpful in evaluating and selecting investment cases like the spinal medical device firms, where both quantitative and qualitative factors should be considered. An analytical framework that consists of hybrid MCDM methods and the real option method will thus be very useful to evaluate the newly established firms producing spinal medical devices. Therefore, the authors propose a real option valuation as well as the Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) based analytic network process (DANP) and the modified VIšekriterijumsko KOmpromisno Rangiranje (VIKOR) method (DANP-mV) based MCDM framework for evaluating the investment projects offered by these firms of spinal medical devices. An empirical study based on three newly established spinal medical device companies specializing in vertebral compression fracture (VCF) surgical devices was used to demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed analytical framework. Sensitivity analysis is performed to determine the influence of modeling parameters on ranking results of alternatives. This analytical framework can thus serve as a tool for VCs to use to determine the value of a potential candidate for investment. The proposed method can also serve as an effective and efficient tool for investment projects in other fields.

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