scholarly journals An Evidential Reasoning Approach to Fraud Risk Assessment under Dempster-Shafer Theory: A General Framework

2011 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lei Gao ◽  
T J Mock ◽  
R P Srivastava
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
General Framework ◽  
Evidential Reasoning ◽  
Fraud Risk ◽  
Dempster Shafer Theory ◽  
Evidential Reasoning Approach ◽  
Shafer Theory

Belief Function Approach to Evidential Reasoning in Causal Maps

2005 ◽  
pp. 109-141
Author(s):  
Rajendra P. Srivastava ◽  
Mari W. Buche ◽  
Tom L. Roberts
Keyword(s):  
Job Satisfaction ◽  
Information Technology ◽  
Belief Function ◽  
Evidential Reasoning ◽  
Belief Functions ◽  
Causal Maps ◽  
Dempster Shafer Theory ◽  
Evidential Reasoning Approach ◽  
Theory Of Belief Functions ◽  
Shafer Theory

The purpose of this chapter is to demonstrate the use of the evidential reasoning approach under the Dempster-Shafer (D-S) theory of belief functions to analyze revealed causal maps (RCM). The participants from information technology (IT) organizations provided the concepts to describe the target phenomenon of Job Satisfaction. They also identified the associations between the concepts. This chapter discusses the steps necessary to transform a causal map into an evidential diagram. The evidential diagram can then be analyzed using belief functions technique with survey data, thereby extending the research from a discovery and explanation stage to testing and prediction. An example is provided to demonstrate these steps. This chapter also provides the basics of Dempster-Shafer theory of belief functions and a step-by-step description of the propagation process of beliefs in tree-like evidential diagrams.

The Dempster-Shafer Theory: An Introduction and Fraud Risk Assessment Illustration

2011 ◽  
Vol 21 (3) ◽  
pp. 282-291 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rajendra P. Srivastava ◽  
Theodore J. Mock ◽  
Lei Gao
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Fraud Risk ◽  
Dempster Shafer Theory ◽  
Shafer Theory

scholarly journals Automatic Updates of Transition Potential Matrices in Dempster-Shafer Networks Based on Evidence Inputs

Sensors ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (13) ◽  
pp. 3727
Author(s):  
Joel Dunham ◽  
Eric Johnson ◽  
Eric Feron ◽  
Brian German
Keyword(s):  
Sensor Fusion ◽  
A Priori ◽  
Evidential Reasoning ◽  
Unmanned Aerial Systems ◽  
Sufficient Information ◽  
User Input ◽  
Transition Potential ◽  
Dempster Shafer Theory ◽  
Shafer Theory ◽  
Aerial Systems

Sensor fusion is a topic central to aerospace engineering and is particularly applicable to unmanned aerial systems (UAS). Evidential Reasoning, also known as Dempster-Shafer theory, is used heavily in sensor fusion for detection classification. High computing requirements typically limit use on small UAS platforms. Valuation networks, the general name given to evidential reasoning networks by Shenoy, provides a means to reduce computing requirements through knowledge structure. However, these networks use conditional probabilities or transition potential matrices to describe the relationships between nodes, which typically require expert information to define and update. This paper proposes and tests a novel method to learn these transition potential matrices based on evidence injected at nodes. Novel refinements to the method are also introduced, demonstrating improvements in capturing the relationships between the node belief distributions. Finally, novel rules are introduced and tested for evidence weighting at nodes during simultaneous evidence injections, correctly balancing the injected evidenced used to learn the transition potential matrices. Together, these methods enable updating a Dempster-Shafer network with significantly less user input, thereby making these networks more useful for scenarios in which sufficient information concerning relationships between nodes is not known a priori.

scholarly journals Integrated Transformer Health Estimation Methodology Based on Markov Chains and Evidential Reasoning

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Srdjan Milosavljevic ◽  
Aleksandar Janjic
Keyword(s):  
Markov Chains ◽  
Distribution System ◽  
Transition Probabilities ◽  
Diagnostic Technique ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Evidential Reasoning ◽  
Dempster Shafer Theory ◽  
The Status ◽  
Shafer Theory ◽  
Available Information

Due to the large number of power transformers (ETs) in the distribution system, there is a need for a relatively simple representation of the status of each unit in order to more easily determine where and how to allocate the budget for preventive and corrective maintenance. In recent years, the concept of the transformer health index (HI) as an integral part of resource management was adopted for the condition assessment and ranking of ETs. HI algorithms take different forms and can be determined based on a large number of specific parameters. However, the main problem in HI methodology or any modern diagnostic technique is the existence of regular measurements and inspections and accurate test results. The paper proposes a solution in the form of the upgraded HI and the novel methodology for ET ranking including the value of available information to describe ET current state. The confidence to the measurement results is calculated using evidential reasoning (ER) algorithm based on Dempster–Shafer theory. The contribution to the ER methodology is the calculation of the initial degrees of belief using Markov chains. The aging process of an ET and transition probabilities from state to state are modelled using the statistical data for the population of 300 ETs and 20 years monitoring data. The proposed methodology is tested on the real data for 110/35 kV transformer, and in the second case, compared to the sample of 30 110/x kV transformers with traditional HI calculation.

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