Transient Modeling of Permafrost Dynamics in Changing Climate Scenarios

2011 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew Frampton ◽  
Georgia Destouni ◽  
Ylva Sjoberg ◽  
Scott Painter
Keyword(s):  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Changing Climate ◽  
Transient Modeling

scholarly journals Comparative study of flood projections under the climate scenarios: links with sampling schemes, probability distribution models, and return level concepts

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lingqi Li ◽  
Lihua Xiong ◽  
Chong-Yu Xu ◽  
Shenglian Guo ◽  
Pan Liu
Keyword(s):  
Air Temperature ◽  
Negative Binomial ◽  
Arrival Rate ◽  
Return Level ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Sampling Schemes ◽  
Future Design ◽  
Changing Climate ◽  
Design Floods

Abstract. Traditional stationarity strategy for extrapolating future design floods requires renovation in response to the possible nonstationarity caused by changing climate. Capable of tackling such problem, the expected-number-of-events (ENE) method is employed with both Annual Maximum (AM) and Peaks over Threshold (POT) sampling schemes expatiated. The existing paradigms of the ENE method are extended focusing on the over-dispersion emerged in POT arrival rate, for which by virtue of the ability to account, the Negative Binomial (NB) distribution is proposed as an alternative since the common assumption of homogeneous Poisson process would likely be invalid under nonstationarity. Flood return levels are estimated and compared under future climate scenarios (embodied by the two covariates of precipitation and air temperature) using the ENE method for both sampling schemes in the Weihe basin, China. To further understand how flood estimation responds to climate change, a global sensitivity analysis is performed. It is found that design floods dependent on nonstationarity are usually but not necessarily more different from those analyzed by stationarity strategy due to the interaction between air temperature and precipitation. In general, a large decrease in flood projection could be induced under nonstationarity if air temperature presents dramatically increasing trend or reduction occurs in precipitation, and vice versa. AM-based flood projections are mostly smaller than POT estimations (unless a low threshold is assumed) and more sensitive to changing climate. The outcome of the biased flood estimates resulting from an unrestricted use of the Poisson assumption suggests a priority to the NB distribution when fitting POT arrival rate with significantly larger variance than the mean. The study supplements the knowledge of future design floods under changing climate and makes an effort to improve guidance of choices in flood inference.

Crop disease management strategies for rainfed cropping systems under changing climate scenarios

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Suseelendra Desai ◽  
S. C. Dubey ◽  
Meenakshi Taduri ◽  
Uzma Sultana ◽  
Sravani Pinisetty
Keyword(s):  
Disease Management ◽  
Cropping Systems ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Changing Climate ◽  
Crop Disease

scholarly journals Performance of urban storm drainage network under changing climate scenarios: Flood mitigation in Indian coastal city

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ramachandran Andimuthu ◽  
Palanivelu Kandasamy ◽  
B V Mudgal ◽  
Anushiya Jeganathan ◽  
Abinaya Balu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Flood Mitigation ◽  
Drainage Network ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Coastal City ◽  
Changing Climate ◽  
Storm Drainage ◽  
Urban Storm

scholarly journals Spatial and temporal variations of Norwegian geohazards in a changing climate, the GeoExtreme Project

2008 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 893-904 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Jaedicke ◽  
A. Solheim ◽  
L. H. Blikra ◽  
K. Stalsberg ◽  
A. Sorteberg ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Climate Modelling ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Precipitation Regime ◽  
Changing Climate ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Near Future

Abstract. Various types of slope processes, mainly landslides and avalanches (snow, rock, clay and debris) pose together with floods the main geohazards in Norway. Landslides and avalanches have caused more than 2000 casualties and considerable damage to infrastructure over the last 150 years. The interdisciplinary research project "GeoExtreme" focuses on investigating the coupling between meteorological factors and landslides and avalanches, extrapolating this into the near future with a changing climate and estimating the socioeconomic implications. The main objective of the project is to predict future geohazard changes in a changing climate. A database consisting of more than 20 000 recorded historical events have been coupled with a meteorological database to assess the predictability of landslides and avalanches caused by meteorological conditions. Present day climate and near future climate scenarios are modelled with a global climate model on a stretched grid, focusing on extreme weather events in Norway. The effects of climate change on landslides and avalanche activity are studied in four selected areas covering the most important climatic regions in Norway. The statistical analysis of historical landslide and avalanche events versus weather observations shows strong regional differences in the country. Avalanches show the best correlation with weather events while landslides and rockfalls are less correlated. The new climate modelling approach applying spectral nudging to achieve a regional downscaling for Norway proves to reproduce extreme events of precipitation much better than conventional modelling approaches. Detailed studies of slope stabilities in one of the selected study area show a high sensitivity of slope stability in a changed precipitation regime. The value of elements at risk was estimated in one study area using a GIS based approach that includes an estimation of the values within given present state hazard zones. The ongoing project will apply the future climate scenarios to predict the changes in geohazard levels, as well as an evaluation of the resulting socioeconomic effects on the Norwegian society in the coming 50 years.

scholarly journals Regional Simulations of Loblolly Pine Productivity with CO2 Enrichment and Changing Climate Scenarios

2018 ◽  
Vol 64 (4) ◽  
pp. 349-357 ◽  
Author(s):  
Harold E Burkhart ◽  
Evan B Brooks ◽  
Heather Dinon-Aldridge ◽  
Charles O Sabatia ◽  
Nabin Gyawali ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Loblolly Pine ◽  
Co2 Enrichment ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Changing Climate
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