Morphological Component Analysis Based Hybrid Approach for Prediction of Crude Oil Price

2010 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kaijian He ◽  
Kin Keung Lai ◽  
Jerome Yen
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
Hybrid Approach ◽  
Component Analysis ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Morphological Component Analysis ◽  
Morphological Component

scholarly journals Day-Ahead Crude Oil Price Forecasting Using a Novel Morphological Component Analysis Based Model

2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 ◽  
pp. 1-10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qing Zhu ◽  
Kaijian He ◽  
Yingchao Zou ◽  
Kin Keung Lai
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
Performance Improvement ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Price Movement ◽  
Morphological Component Analysis ◽  
Morphological Component ◽  
Oil Markets ◽  
Significant Performance ◽  
Modelling Process

As a typical nonlinear and dynamic system, the crude oil price movement is difficult to predict and its accurate forecasting remains the subject of intense research activity. Recent empirical evidence suggests that the multiscale data characteristics in the price movement are another important stylized fact. The incorporation of mixture of data characteristics in the time scale domain during the modelling process can lead to significant performance improvement. This paper proposes a novel morphological component analysis based hybrid methodology for modeling the multiscale heterogeneous characteristics of the price movement in the crude oil markets. Empirical studies in two representative benchmark crude oil markets reveal the existence of multiscale heterogeneous microdata structure. The significant performance improvement of the proposed algorithm incorporating the heterogeneous data characteristics, against benchmark random walk, ARMA, and SVR models, is also attributed to the innovative methodology proposed to incorporate this important stylized fact during the modelling process. Meanwhile, work in this paper offers additional insights into the heterogeneous market microstructure with economic viable interpretations.

Forecasting crude oil price with a new hybrid approach and multi-source data

2021 ◽  
Vol 101 ◽  
pp. 104217
Author(s):  
Yifan Yang ◽  
Ju’e Guo ◽  
Shaolong Sun ◽  
Yixin Li
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
Hybrid Approach ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Source Data

Impact of crude oil price on the socio-political environment of global countries

2019 ◽  
Vol 118 (3) ◽  
pp. 110-122
Author(s):  
Johnson Clement Madathil ◽  
Velmurugan P. S
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
Descriptive Analysis ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Policy Framework ◽  
Political Environment ◽  
Policy Reforms ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Political Impact ◽  
New Energy

Crude oil is known to have an impact on people’s life of both producers and consumers of crude oil countries. A producer country’s socio-political impact will be different from a consumer country’s socio-political impact. This paper aims to show that crude oil price has a socio-political impact on global countries through descriptive analysis. The study found that there were similarities in the movement of crude oil price and change in GDP of both India and United States and further Russia and Venezuela have had crude oil impact on their respective GDP’s, which has made them take policy reforms. The paper identifies changes in the policy framework due to influence of crude oil price and eventual changes in existing socio-political environment. Taking oil producing countries such as Russia and Venezuela as examples, this paper suggests that policy reforms are the key to having a stable socio-political environment. Russia shows us that having a flexible monetary policy can keep the budget dependence on crude oil reduced in the short term. On the other hand, for oil consuming countries, having a stable supply and moving to new energy sources is the key to tackle the influence of crude oil price on the socio-political environment of global countries.

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