Verification of models in protection related analysis programs

Author(s):  
A. Apostolov ◽  
J. Ingleson
2017 ◽  
pp. 98-134 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Tirole

In the fourth chapter of the book “The economy of the common good”, the nature of economics as a science and research practices in their theoretical and empirical aspects are discussed. The author considers the processes of modeling, empirical verification of models and evaluation of research quality. In addition, the features of economic cognition and the role of mathematics in economic research are analyzed, including the example of relevant research in game theory and information theory.


2019 ◽  
Vol 122 ◽  
pp. 102-117 ◽  
Author(s):  
José J.N. Alves ◽  
Antônio T.P. Neto ◽  
Antônio C.B. Araújo ◽  
Heleno B. Silva ◽  
Sidinei K. Silva ◽  
...  

Author(s):  
G.Yu. Yamskikh ◽  
A.V. Kozhukhovsky ◽  
K.V. Marusin ◽  
E.A. Fedorova

The article presents the analysis and prediction of coastal processes at the site of the Krasnoyarsk reservoir in the village of Kurtak where there are the most intensive processes of coastal reshaping. Over the past 50 years, the coast has receded here by an average of 350 m and continues to actively collapse at a speed of 3-5 m per year. Despite the fact that the intensity of coastal processes in this area has significantly decreased (mainly due to the general decrease in the level of the Krasnoyarsk reservoir), the rate of retreat of the shore is still high. However, it can be concluded that for the researched area the coastal reshaping does not pose a real threat to economic activity in the next 30 years. The article tested various methods of forecasting coastal processes, selected the most appropriate for the shores of a similar type. Verification of models was carried out on the basis of data of long-term monitoring of the site under consideration, which gave the chance to compare results of forecasts on different techniques to real retreat of the coast on this site.


Space Weather ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 16 (9) ◽  
pp. 1269-1276 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthias M. Meier ◽  
Kyle Copeland ◽  
Daniel Matthiä ◽  
Christopher J. Mertens ◽  
Kai Schennetten

2000 ◽  
Vol 31 ◽  
pp. 377-381 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. M. McClung

AbstractVerification of avalanche forecasts depends on the spatial and temporal scale of the forecast, and the classes of informational entropy of data implicit in the forecast. First I present a classification system for avalanche forecasts based on these parameters. Verification of models in avalanche forecasting may consist of two stages. Often, the first stage is to ensure that the model matches the scales (space and time) and the classification of forecast and that redundant variables and parameters are eliminated. Once that is achieved, verification can proceed to the second stage, testing the model against relevant field data and situations. I provide an example based on the public-danger scale bulletin used for warnings in the back country in North America and Europe. Using data on deaths and accidents from Alpine Europe with Bayesian statistics, I conclude the danger scale has more classes than necessary for back-country applications. This could be a first stage prior to actual verification of this experience-based model.


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