Analyzing the Role of Noise Trader in Financial Markets through Agent-Based Modelling

Author(s):  
Hiroshi Takahashi
Author(s):  
Mario E. Inchiosa ◽  
Bipin Chadha

This paper describes the need for understanding the role of financial markets in successful product development in the global context. Agent-based models distinguish themselves by their ability to generate many real world phenomena endogenously, rather than as a result of ad-hoc assumptions. We report on a model of global financial markets employing the following agents: countries, firms, stock traders, country banks, and a global bank. These agents interact with goods, credit, currency, and stock markets. The model endogenously generated quantitative and qualitative features of real economies, including skewed firm sizes, skewed country GNP’s, skewed stock trader portfolio values, and heavy-tailed non-Gaussian firm growth rate, exchange rate fluctuation, and stock return distributions. Multiple runs were performed with different random number generator seeds to investigate the stability or instability of the economies grown by the model. Both stable and unstable country economies were detected. The multiple runs also verified conclusions drawn from analyzing individual runs showing how small countries could be buffeted by fluctuations in larger countries. Such a model can be used by product development organizations to understand the impacts of their product development decisions in the context of dynamic and unpredictable financial markets.


2020 ◽  
Vol 275 ◽  
pp. 115358
Author(s):  
Alejandro Nuñez-Jimenez ◽  
Christof Knoeri ◽  
Fabian Rottmann ◽  
Volker H. Hoffmann

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Bradley Walker ◽  
José Segovia Martín ◽  
Monica Tamariz ◽  
Nicolas Fay

AbstractMany cultural phenomena evolve through a Darwinian process whereby adaptive variants are selected and spread at the expense of competing variants. While cultural evolutionary theory emphasises the importance of social learning to this process, experimental studies indicate that people’s dominant response is to maintain their prior behaviour. In addition, while payoff-biased learning is crucial to Darwinian cultural evolution, learner behaviour is not always guided by variant payoffs. Here, we use agent-based modelling to investigate the role of maintenance in Darwinian cultural evolution. We vary the degree to which learner behaviour is payoff-biased (i.e., based on critical evaluation of variant payoffs), and compare three uncritical (non-payoff-biased) strategies that are used alongside payoff-biased learning: copying others, innovating new variants, and maintaining prior variants. In line with previous research, we show that some level of payoff-biased learning is crucial for populations to converge on adaptive cultural variants. Importantly, when combined with payoff-biased learning, uncritical maintenance leads to stronger population-level adaptation than uncritical copying or innovation, highlighting the importance of maintenance to cultural selection. This advantage of maintenance as a default learning strategy may help explain why it is a common human behaviour.


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