Impact of high variable renewable generation on future market prices and generator revenue

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Vithayasrichareon ◽  
J. Riesz ◽  
I. MacGill
Keyword(s):  
Future Market ◽  
Renewable Generation ◽  
Market Prices

Henry Hub future market prices: recent evolution fundamentals and future scenarios

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (2020) ◽  
pp. 332-333
Author(s):  
Alexandre Szklo ◽  
Henrique Vilela Pinto Dos Anjos
Keyword(s):  
Future Market ◽  
Future Scenarios ◽  
Market Prices

Simple formulae for valuing stock conversion options

1974 ◽  
Vol 101 (1) ◽  
pp. 97-101 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. M. Carroll
Keyword(s):  
Future Market ◽  
Market Prices ◽  
The Future ◽  
Future Date

It is quite common for stocks (usually loan stocks) to be issued by companies and purchased by investors, which include among their terms an option to convert at some future date into other stocks (usually ordinary shares) on specific terms. Such options obviously have value, but I am unaware of any simple published method for estimating the value of such options in practical cases. The purpose of this note is to suggest a formula, based upon easily understood estimates of the future market prices of the stocks in question, which may be applied readily in practice to estimate the value of such options.

scholarly journals Organizational and economic mechanism of grain sales: information component

2019 ◽  
Vol 21 (92) ◽  
pp. 81-89
Author(s):  
L. Volontyr ◽  
L. Mykhalchyshyna
Keyword(s):  
Econometric Model ◽  
Storage System ◽  
Future Market ◽  
Optimal Size ◽  
Industrial Complex ◽  
Net Income ◽  
Market Prices ◽  
Grain Crops ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Price Situation

A significant part of the output of the agro-industrial complex of Ukraine is exported. Therefore, it is desirable to determine the optimal volume of products to be implemented each month. Prices for grain are formed depending on demand and supply, costs for production and sale, market fees, etc. The analysis of the price situation on the Ukrainian cities shows a large variation. The average price of 1 kg of grain crops does not give a full opportunity to characterize the price situation of the Ukrainian grain market. There is seasonal price cyclicality: their growth with the decrease of stocks and the reduction after harvesting, when mass sales of grain are carried out by producers who are not able to store the grown crops, and consumers make grain crops. In the article the solution of the economic-mathematical model of optimization of the calendar plan for the sale of agricultural products is developed and found. The model is considered from the standpoint of deterministic product prices and under the probabilistic nature of future market prices. The system of restrictions consists of two constraints: to determine the optimal size of grain crop harvesting of each type and the capacity of the warehouse. If future market prices are considered not deterministic, then the commodity producer always has the risk of receiving in the future revenue from the sale of products smaller than expected. A risk-averse person will be guided by two criteria when deciding to: maximize the expected total net income and minimize the dispersion of total net income. In this case, the model will be two-criterial and nonlinear. The method of supporting the process of determining the predominance of multi-criteria optimization is that the owner first of all has received information about the limits of the variation of the expected total net income and the standard deviation of income on the set of effective options for the calendar plan. The peculiarities of the individual attitude to risk are calculated by drawing information on the permissible levels of the indicated criterion. Further among all effective variants of the calendar plan of realization is calculated precisely the one that best reflects the individual predominance of the owner of the product. The following information is needed to construct a numerical model for grain sales: sales prices and the cost of storing 1 ton of grain crops to a certain month. The predicted values are based on a simple linear econometric model based on statistical sampling. The reliability of the econometric model is determined by the determination coefficient or on the basis of Fisher's F-criterion according to the theory of statistical hypotheses. Econometric models have weak extropolitic properties, so the forecast can be formed only short-term. The solution of the model showed: all kinds of grain crops, except for barley, are economically unprofitable to be implemented in such months as January, May, June, July and August. Wheat grades 3 and 6, corn is also unprofitable to be sold in September. Unlike other crops, barley is beneficial throughout the year. In February, the maximum sales of wheat is 2, 3 and 6 classes, in March the maximum sale of barley, and the minimum is in May. Maize has the maximum sales in May, and the minimum in September. The minimum sale of wheat depends on its class – September, April and December respectively 2, 3 and 6 classes. With such incomplete loading of warehouses, the profit from storage of grain crops will be 743 thousand. UAH. Thus, PJSC “Gnivan Grain Reciprocal Enterprise” is more likely to load its warehouses to improve its financial position. One of the ways of solving the problem of seasonal grain sales is to create a network of modern certified grain elevators, taking into account the logistically rational location, which will allow to keep enough grain in addition and of the proper quality. This will allow an increase in the efficiency of grain producers through the sale of grain at favorable market conditions in a wider range of time. Independent operators should also be encouraged to ensure that the quality of the grain is objectively measured. At present, the analysis of the work of the grain storage system shows that the high cost of services of active elevators is also a problem.

scholarly journals Price-Linked Subsidies and Imperfect Competition in Health Insurance

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 279-311
Author(s):  
Sonia Jaffe ◽  
Mark Shepard
Keyword(s):  
Health Care ◽  
Health Insurance ◽  
Imperfect Competition ◽  
Health Care Cost ◽  
Policy Response ◽  
Future Market ◽  
Market Prices ◽  
The Government ◽  
Mature Market ◽  
Exchange Data

Policymakers subsidizing health insurance often face uncertainty about future market prices. We study the implications of one policy response: linking subsidies to prices to target a given postsubsidy premium. We show that these price-linked subsidies weaken competition, raising prices for the government and/or consumers. However, price-linking also ties subsidies to health care cost shocks, which may be desirable. Evaluating this tradeoff empirically, using a model estimated with Massachusetts insurance exchange data, we find that price-linking increases prices 1–6 percent, and much more in less competitive markets. For cost uncertainty reasonable in a mature market, these losses outweigh the benefits of price-linking. (JEL G22, H75, I13, I18)

scholarly journals Accuracy of European Stock Target Prices

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (9) ◽  
pp. 443
Author(s):  
Joana Almeida ◽  
Raquel M. Gaspar
Keyword(s):  
Panel Data ◽  
Empirical Data ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Predictive Power ◽  
Future Market ◽  
Accuracy Analysis ◽  
Market Prices ◽  
Comparative Accuracy ◽  
European Stock Markets ◽  
The Relationship

Equity studies are conducted by professionals, who also provide buy/hold/sell recommendations to investors. Nowadays, target prices determined by financial analysts are publicly available to investors, who may decide to use them for investment purposes. Studying the accuracy of such analysts’ forecasts is, thus, of paramount importance. Based upon empirical data on 50 of the biggest (larger capitalisation) European stocks over a 15-year period, from 2004 to 2019, and using a panel data approach, this is the first study looking at overall accuracy in European stock markets. We find that Bloomberg’s 12-month consensus target prices have no predictive power over future market prices. Our panel results are robust to company fixed effects and subperiod analysis. These results are in line with the (mostly US-based) evidence in the literature. Extending common practice, we perform a comparative accuracy analysis, comparing the accuracy of target prices with that of simple capitalisations of current prices. It turns out target prices are not better at forecasting than simple capitalisations. When considering individual regressions, accuracy is still very low, but it varies considerably across stocks. By also analysing the relationship between both measures—target prices and capitalised prices—we find evidence that, for some stocks, capitalised prices partially explain how target prices are determined.

Implications of the Clean Development Mechanism under the Kyoto Protocol on other Conventions. The case of HFC-23 destruction

elni Review ◽  
2005 ◽  
pp. 40-51
Author(s):  
Lambert Schneider ◽  
Jakob Graichen ◽  
Nele Matz
Keyword(s):  
Kyoto Protocol ◽  
Clean Development Mechanism ◽  
Montreal Protocol ◽  
Future Market ◽  
Environmental Implications ◽  
Market Prices ◽  
Environmental Consequences ◽  
Certified Emission Reduction ◽  
Cost Efficient ◽  
Development Mechanism

The destruction of HFC-23 waste streams in new HCFC-22 production facilities under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) is likely to have negative implications for both the mitigation of climate change and the protection of the ozone layer. These consequences were not foreseen when the Kyoto Protocol and its guidelines were drawn up. This paper describes the economic and environmental consequences of such CDM projects and looks for solutions which would make use of the cost-efficient abatement potential whilst avoiding negative environmental implications. Within the CDM, negative environmental effects could be avoided by introducing an adjustment factor depending on future market prices for certified emission reduction units and other parameters. Alternatively, the HFC-23 waste stream could be abated using financial support from multilateral funds which could possibly draw upon synergies with the financial mechanisms under the Montreal Protocol and the Stockholm Convention.

The Russian ruble crisis of December 2014

2016 ◽  
pp. 66-86
Author(s):  
A. Obizhaeva
Keyword(s):  
Microstructure Analysis ◽  
Future Market ◽  
Effective Response ◽  
Large Order ◽  
Short Period ◽  
The Face ◽  
Front Running ◽  
Futures And Options

The paper presents a microstructure analysis of the crash of the Russian ruble in mid-December 2014. The author shows that the market break probably happened due to the execution of a large order that converted Russian rubles into U.S. dollars over a short period of a few days. Expirations of futures and options as well as possible front-running could have exacerbated the collapse of the Russian currency. The paper discusses measures taken by the Moscow Exchange and Bank of Russia during the episode and makes several recommendations to prevent a repetition of the similar events and provide an effective response in the face of future market breaks.

Analisis Rantai Nilai Komoditas Cabai Merah

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 336-346
Author(s):  
Dhamon Oridilla B
Keyword(s):  
Distribution Pattern ◽  
Distribution Patterns ◽  
Added Value ◽  
Commodity Chain ◽  
Market Prices ◽  
Data Analyst ◽  
Bargaining Position ◽  
Agricultural Business ◽  
The Government ◽  
Red Peppers

Candi Village in Bandungan District is one of the Chili Supply Sub-district for Semarang Regency and surrounding area has agro-climate suitable for the development of various agricultural commodities supported by wide market opportunity, so it is suitable for agricultural business development. The purpose of this research is to identify the distribution pattern of red pepper, to know each value of commodity chains and distribution, to design alternative distribution pattern of red pepper.Population in this research is 88 respondents from 735 of member of chilli farmer in Desa Candi with total area of 150,3 hectare consisting of rice field, moor and yard. Methods of data analyst using quantitative approach is done by using Margin Marketing Analysis. The results include: (1) The pattern of distribution of existing farming business grows naturally in accordance with the developments and needs of the perpetrators, the actors in this pattern are farmers, wholesalers, collectors, wholesalers, retailers, consumers. (2) The value of the red chili commodity chain in this naturally grown pattern often makes pricing more dominant by traders, so farmers receive prices slightly lower than market prices. (3) Some obstacles faced in distributing red peppers are the difficulty of changing the mindset of the community about advanced farming, this is best utilized by market participants (chain of distribution) who are more informed and always keep abreast of market dynamics. Conventional marketing pattern by farmer cause price level accepted by farmer in general relatively smaller compared to price received by trader. Suggestions shorten the chain of distribution patterns, increase the added value of products and improve the bargaining position of farmers and for the government always guide / accompany farmers in getting accurate market information, which can be used as farmers in bargaining, Increased market transparency can act as a trigger for the functioning of a market, improved competition and increased adaptation to meet the needs of supply and opportunity to compete with market prices. Desa Candi di Kabupaten Bandungan adalah salah satu Kecamatan Penyedia Cabai untuk Kabupaten Semarang dan sekitarnya memiliki agroklimat yang cocok untuk pengembangan berbagai komoditas pertanian yang didukung oleh peluang pasar yang luas, sehingga sangat cocok untuk pengembangan bisnis pertanian. Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk mengidentifikasi pola distribusi cabai merah, untuk mengetahui masing-masing nilai rantai komoditas dan distribusi, untuk merancang alternatif pola distribusi cabai merah. Populasi dalam penelitian ini adalah 88 responden dari 735 anggota petani cabai di Desa Candi dengan total luas 150,3 hektar yang terdiri dari sawah, tegalan dan pekarangan. Metode analis data menggunakan pendekatan kuantitatif dilakukan dengan menggunakan Analisis Pemasaran Margin. Hasil meliputi: (1) Pola distribusi usaha pertanian yang ada tumbuh secara alami sesuai dengan perkembangan dan kebutuhan pelaku, pelaku dalam pola ini adalah petani, pedagang besar, pengumpul, pedagang besar, pedagang besar, pengecer, konsumen. (2) Nilai rantai komoditas cabai merah dalam pola yang dikembangkan secara alami ini sering membuat penetapan harga lebih dominan oleh para pedagang, sehingga petani menerima harga yang sedikit lebih rendah daripada harga pasar. (3) Beberapa kendala yang dihadapi dalam mendistribusikan paprika merah adalah sulitnya mengubah pola pikir masyarakat tentang pertanian maju, hal ini paling baik digunakan oleh pelaku pasar (rantai distribusi) yang lebih banyak informasi dan selalu mengikuti perkembangan dinamika pasar. Pola pemasaran konvensional oleh petani menyebabkan tingkat harga yang diterima petani pada umumnya relatif lebih kecil dibandingkan dengan harga yang diterima pedagang. Saran mempersingkat rantai pola distribusi, meningkatkan nilai tambah produk dan meningkatkan posisi tawar petani dan bagi pemerintah selalu membimbing / menemani petani dalam mendapatkan informasi pasar yang akurat, yang dapat digunakan sebagai petani dalam tawar-menawar, Peningkatan transparansi pasar dapat bertindak sebagai pemicu berfungsinya pasar, meningkatnya kompetisi dan peningkatan adaptasi untuk memenuhi kebutuhan pasokan dan peluang untuk bersaing dengan harga pasar.

Solar Renewable Energy Credit Price Volatility and Investment Returns: Have Policies Stranded Capital Investment?

Commonwealth ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Somayeh Youssefi ◽  
Patrick L. Gurian
Keyword(s):  
Solar Energy ◽  
Capital Investment ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
The United States ◽  
Investment Model ◽  
Capital Investments ◽  
Demand Model ◽  
Market Prices ◽  
Investment Returns

Pennsylvania is one of a number of U.S. states that provide incentives for the generation of electricity by solar energy through Solar Renewal Energy Credits (SRECs). This article develops a return on investment model for solar energy generation in the PJM (mid-­Atlantic) region of the United States. Model results indicate that SREC values of roughly $150 are needed for residential scale systems to break even over a 25-­year project period at 3% interest. Market prices for SRECs in Pennsylvania have been well below this range from late 2011 through the first half of 2016, indicating that previous capital investments in solar generation have been stranded as a result of steep declines in the value of SRECs. A simple conceptual supply and demand model is developed to explain the sharp decline in market prices for SRECs. Also discussed is a possible policy remedy that would add unsold SRECs in a given year to the SREC quota for the subsequent year.

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