Mopani deal will exacerbate Zambia's debt crisis

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Public Sector ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Debt Crisis ◽  
Strategic Partner ◽  
Debt Sustainability ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Resource Nationalism ◽  
The Government

Significance This boosts President Edgar Lungu's re-election prospects in August, but ZCCM-IH will struggle to find a 'strategic partner' to replace Glencore. Mounting public debt will undermine efforts to convince the IMF that the government has a path to debt sustainability, depriving Zambia of access to concessional lending and stalling negotiations with bondholders. Impacts Resource nationalism will play well on the Copperbelt, improving the ruling party’s prospects in a region key to securing a poll victory. With little chance of an IMF deal, Lungu will likely make further pre-poll gestures, such as salary increases for public-sector workers. Monetary policy is also likely to suffer, with the central bank under pressure to fund the government's reckless borrowing.

Mexican fiscal consolidation steady despite oil price

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Fiscal Consolidation ◽  
Significant Drop ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government

Subject The outlook for fiscal consolidation. Significance The significant drop in oil prices should not derail the fiscal consolidation trajectory mapped by President Enrique Pena Nieto's administration, which envisages that the debt/GDP ratio should stabilise by 2017. The fiscal hole opened by reduced oil prices has been compensated with greater taxation income and one-off revenues. Impacts Defying expectations, the oil price plunge did not push the government into an overtly contractionary fiscal correction. An arguably much-needed simplification of the cumbersome taxation regime will not take place due to the government's pledge not to alter it. Loose monetary policy from the autonomous central bank has worked in tandem with the government's fiscal stance.

Risks are high despite Turkey’s policy 'normalisation'

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Foreign Debt ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Public ◽  
High Inflation ◽  
The Government

Significance With the lira at a record low, the Central Bank continued to tighten monetary policy this week, funding the market through competitive one-month repo tenders at rates of around 12.5%. In recent weeks, the government and Central Bank have taken a series of steps to modify the expansionary and in some cases unorthodox policies adopted during the COVID-19 pandemic. Impacts Foreign portfolio investors could shun the Turkish market for some more months, and the risk premium will remain high. Although this year’s annual contraction in GDP, at 3-4%, may be less severe than expected, the recovery may decelerate or be interrupted. The lira may fall further with concerns about foreign debt, forex reserves, budgets, inflation and financial stability persisting into 2021. Given the weak lira, the jobs crisis and high inflation, the government will struggle to persuade the public it has managed the crisis well.

scholarly journals Sharīʿah-compliant central banking practices: lessons from Muslim countries’ experience

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 7-26
Author(s):  
Zaheer Anwer ◽  
Shabeer Khan ◽  
Muhammad Abu Bakar
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Islamic Law ◽  
Financial Institution ◽  
Central Banking ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Muslim Countries ◽  
Muslim Majority ◽  
The Government

Purpose The purpose of this study is to document how a central bank can perform its primary and secondary functions in a Sharīʿah-compliant manner. It also seeks to investigate the outcomes of the experiments of Muslim-majority countries in this regard. Design/methodology/approach As a first step, a detailed review of existing literature is conducted, which discusses the views of scholars and practitioners on the central banking mechanism in a fully Sharīʿah-compliant financial system. Moving further, the case studies of Iran, Sudan and Pakistan are presented to highlight experiences of regulators from three Muslim-majority countries, which aimed to achieve full compliance with Sharīʿah (Islamic law) principles related to Islamic finance. To evaluate their models, an assessment of their practices is performed in the light of Sharīʿah rules and principles based on existing literature. Finally, the issues involved in establishing a Sharīʿah-compliant central bank (SCCB) are discussed and improvements are suggested. Findings It is found that Iran played an effective role in pursuing broader objectives of monetary policy by setting priorities for credit allocation and assisting the government in reducing expenses; however, with respect to instruments, its experience is limited to the rebranding of conventional products. Sudan has not only used monetary policy to effectively curb inflation but also it has introduced various indirect instruments to perform monetary operations. Pakistan succeeded in formulating a theoretical roadmap to establish a SCCB but the desired objectives could not be achieved because of multiple factors. Practical implications This study has important policy implications for regulators and policymakers from Muslim countries, who can use the findings in shaping effective Sharīʿah-compliant central banking practices in their respective countries. Originality/value This study discusses the salient features of an important Islamic financial institution, the central bank and evaluates the experiments of three Muslim-majority countries in implementing Sharīʿah-compliant central banking practices. To the best of the knowledge, this evaluation has not been performed in the existing literature and the present study fills in this gap.

Empirical appraisal of fiscal stability: the case of Ghana

2015 ◽  
Vol 42 (5) ◽  
pp. 753-779
Author(s):  
Nana Kwame Akosah
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Fiscal Sustainability ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Quarterly Data ◽  
Poor Countries

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to appraise the stability of Ghana’s fiscal policy by assessing government’s reaction in the past to rising public debt over the last three decades. Design/methodology/approach – Using quarterly data spanning 1990Q1-2013Q2, the study evaluated the mean reverting properties of Ghana’s public debt and also estimate the fiscal policy reaction function. The complementary estimation techniques include Pesaran et al. (2001) bound testing cointegration test, differencing method and also Granger two-step cointegration methods. Findings – Using quarterly data from 1990Q1 to 2013Q2, the study found the fiscal policy to be unstable in the 1990s, necessitating the adoption of Heavily Indebted Poor Countries’ initiative in 2001. The fiscal situation however relatively stabilizes afterwards following the external debt relief in 2001. Nevertheless, the study reveals that the recent fiscal policy (since 2006) seems to be confronted with tremendous fiscal pressures, exacerbated by fiscal excesses during election cycles as well as excessive domestic and external borrowings. In addition, the economic growth-debt link was found to be weak, though debt appears to adversely affect economic growth. Research limitations/implications – The study does not thoroughly explore the possibility of non-linear relationship between public debt and primary balance. Also, the result could be different using different data frequencies. Practical implications – The state of government finance has implications on the monetary policy and economic growth prospects of an economy. As an inflation targeting central bank since 2002, a successful monetary policy implementation that reins in inflation requires fiscal policy that curtails fiscal volatilities originating from imprudent behaviour of government. Therefore, the looming fiscal pressures in recent times would impair the effective implementation of the inflation targeting framework by the central bank, and also retard economic growth as the bulk of these expenditures are usually recurrent in the case of Ghana. Originality/value – This is the first paper to employ complementary econometric techniques to empirically evaluate fiscal sustainability in Ghana.

scholarly journals Integration of Government Bond Market in the Euro Area and Monetary Policy

2016 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 71-97
Author(s):  
Velimir Lukić
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Debt Crisis ◽  
Bond Market ◽  
Unintended Consequences ◽  
Government Bond ◽  
Lender Of Last Resort ◽  
Yield Spreads ◽  
The Government

Abstract This paper combines analysis of evolution in euro area government bond market integration and interference of European Central Bank with functioning of respective market recently. Since the introduction of euro, government bond yields converged in the euro area, bonds of different countries have become close substitutes in the perception of investors, and overall integration of the market was rather high. At the end of 2008, dramatic shift occurred and ever since disintegrative forces were set in motion. The paper presents the following measures of integration of the government bond markets: yield spreads, dispersion in yield spreads and beta coefficient. All three measures suggest unprecedented market disintegration as of 2010. The paper highlighted relevance of sovereign bond market for the smooth functioning of the monetary policy transmission mechanism in a monetary union context. Three ECB’s programmes aimed at sovereign debt crisis resolution were analysed in details. They proved successful in lowering peripheral countries’ yields and spreads, and calming the markets. If one takes central bank function of the lender of last resort for banks, then these programmes may be viewed as the “buyer of last resort” device for government bonds. Although warranted by exceptional circumstances and need for swift response, a due caution should be paid to these programmes since they pose certain challenges for conduct of monetary policy and might even have unintended consequences.

scholarly journals Monetary policy collision on the performance of banking sector in India

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Belavadi Nikhil ◽  
Shivakumar Deene
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Public Sector ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Economic Situation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Public Sector Banks ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The study aims to identify the impact of monetary policy tools on the performance of banks in India, and this could be an excellent suggestion to the regulators in framing the favourable interest rates which would meet the macroeconomic objectives of the Indian economy. Design/methodology/approach The design adopted in this study is descriptive and analytical research. Correlation and regression analysis is used to determine the relationship between bank rate (BR) and the performance of public sector banks in India. The sample chosen for this study is the public sector banks actively performing in India. Findings The performance is measured by taking three factors, and they are deposits, loans and advances (L&A) and total asset value of the banks. All three factors have shown an impact of BR on them during the five years. L&A affected the least amongst the three factors, but the other two were significantly impacted by the change in BR by the Reserve Bank of India. So, there should be a favourable fluctuation in the BR which will bring flexibility in the banking system, and they can perform well in the economy and the central bank also can concentrate on the macro-economic situation in the country. Originality/value This paper helps in giving suggestions to the Central bank, researchers, financial institutions to look into the financial performance and monetary policy rates and the central bank also can concentrate on the macro-economic situation in the country.

Mexico debt dynamics accelerate, but are not worrying

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Sector ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Fiscal Deficits ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Debt Accumulation ◽  
Credit Line ◽  
Debt Dynamics ◽  
Global Liquidity ◽  
The Government

Subject The outlook for public debt in Mexico. Significance Total public sector debt stood at 505.9 billion dollars in May, with external debt accounting for around one third of that amount, according to the most recent Finance Ministry figures. Fiscal deficits have pushed up indebtedness in recent years, but falling costs have provided a counterweight to the debt accumulation. Impacts Only an external shock will significantly diminish Mexico's creditworthiness. Public debt should reach 50-55% of GDP when the government absorbs Pemex's pension commitments. In the case of a global liquidity crunch, Mexico could activate its IMF credit line, allowing it to borrow up to 72 billion dollars.

Exogenous risks loom over Indonesia’s foreign debt

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Sector ◽  
Private Sector ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Foreign Debt ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Household Debt ◽  
Fiscal Deficit ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Private And Public ◽  
The Government

Subject Outlook for Indonesia's foreign debt distress. Significance Indonesia’s total foreign debt reached 325.3 billion dollars by end-September, up 7.8% from the same period last year, according to Bank Indonesia data. This debt is spread almost equally between the private and public sector: 163.1 billion dollars and 162.2 billion dollars respectively. However, while private sector debt is falling, public debt is rising. Impacts Private miners are unlikely to invest heavily in smelters unless they are certain of an uptick in commodity prices. Raising the legal fiscal deficit limit beyond 3% of GDP will be politically difficult for the government. Household debt is unlikely to rise substantially in 2017.

China's near-term focus will accelerate slower growth

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Outward Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Second Home ◽  
Near Term ◽  
The Government

Subject China Q3 GDP. Significance China's GDP grew by 6.5% year-on-year in July-September, the weakest since 2009 and sparking policy loosening. Fears of encouraging more debt take-up and renminbi weakness will mean the government will contribute more to stimulus efforts than the central bank. Both are calibrating their efforts to prioritise helping households and small and medium-sized firms over larger state-owned enterprises, property developers and second-home owners. Impacts Policy subtly shifting from immediate infrastructure to land use and social security is promising, and vital for a richer, ageing country. There is more room to expand fiscal than monetary policy; a fall in the renminbi against the dollar could discourage bilateral investment. China’s inward and outward foreign direct investment (FDI) is up in 2018 despite lower US-China FDI; other nations will partner China.

Indian corporations are unlikely to set up banks

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Sector ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Capital Adequacy ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Public Sector Banks ◽  
The Government ◽  
Set Up ◽  
Bad Debt

Significance The government and central bank are looking for ways to strengthen the country’s banking system, which is beset by low capital adequacy ratios (CARs) and rising non-performing assets (NPAs). India’s leading conglomerates are asset rich, and their profitability is growing. Impacts The RBI will come under pressure to increase regulation of private as well as public sector banks. Many state-owned banks will merge in a bid to reduce their bad debt. Small NBFCs will face a challenge to sustain liquidity.

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