UK market bill poses internal and external risks

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Northern Ireland ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Trade Agreements ◽  
Labour Party ◽  
Political Survival ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The Eu

Significance The bill establishes a new statutory regime for goods and services trade within the United Kingdom, which is essential for signing trade agreements. However, it also contains clauses on the Northern Ireland Protocol which threaten to override the legally binding EU-UK Withdrawal Agreement (WA), while giving London new powers over the devolved administrations, including on state aid. Impacts The EU is unlikely to collapse the trade talks with the United Kingdom. An EU-UK deal is still possible because the alternative would seriously threaten Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s political survival. The new bill, on top of COVID-19, will give the opposition Labour Party an opportunity to overtake the Conservatives in the polls.

EU-UK deal allows Cameron to campaign against Brexit

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Transition Period ◽  
David Cameron ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Eu Membership ◽  
Scottish Independence ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Eu

Subject The package of reforms on a new EU-UK relationship. Significance The agreement between the United Kingdom and its EU partners sets the stage for the UK referendum on EU membership, which Prime Minister David Cameron has set for June 23. Cameron said he had negotiated new terms that would allow the United Kingdom to remain in the EU. Impacts The deal bolsters the campaign to remain in the EU, but the referendum outcome is still highly uncertain. The deal will only come into effect if the outcome is for remaining, forestalling a second referendum for better terms. If the outcome is for leaving, a new relationship with the EU would have to be negotiated during a two-year transition period. It would also probably lead to a second Scottish independence referendum and UK break-up.

Complicated UK-WTO negotiations may hit growth

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Trade Agreements ◽  
Negotiation Process ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Regional Trade ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Poor Understanding ◽  
Slow Progress ◽  
The Eu

Subject The United Kingdom's WTO status after Brexit. Significance The terms of the United Kingdom's WTO membership are linked to those of the EU. In order to continue benefiting from other members' concessions after Brexit, the United Kingdom will need to arrange its own membership and terms in a potentially lengthy and complicated negotiation process with all other WTO members. Impacts Upon Brexit, the United Kingdom will regain its full competence for concluding bilateral and regional trade agreements. The government's slow progress in recruiting experienced UK trade negotiators may put it at a disadvantage. Poor understanding of the complexity of WTO negotiations may mean that economic losses have been underestimated.

Brexit will be damaging for UK-EU services trade

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Free Trade ◽  
Free Trade Agreements ◽  
Trade Agreements ◽  
Services Trade ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Cross Border ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Trade Deals ◽  
The Eu

Significance Even if it succeeds, this will have a greater disruptive impact on the trade in services than goods, because the EU’s single market enables greater cross-border services trade than is typical of other free trade agreements (FTAs). This is likely to cut the volume of EU-UK services trade, in which the United Kingdom currently enjoys a substantial surplus. Impacts The United Kingdom’s departure from the EU will diminish its appeal for multinationals over the next few years, at least. The new UK immigration system could result in staff shortages in low-skilled services sectors. The imperative of tackling COVID-19 will likely delay the conclusion of new trade deals with non-EU countries.

An opening of the Brexit deadlock nears

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Political Change ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Conservative Party ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Alternative Plan ◽  
European Parliament Elections ◽  
Theresa May ◽  
The Eu

Subject Brexit outlook. Significance If Prime Minister Theresa May can get the Withdrawal Agreement (WA) and Political Declaration on future relations approved in Parliament this week, the United Kingdom should leave the EU on May 22. However, it remains unlikely that her deal will gain a parliamentary majority, setting up a different deadline. The United Kingdom must come up with an alternative plan by April 12 or face the prospect of crashing out of the EU with no deal. Impacts The United Kingdom could have a new prime minister within weeks; a general election cannot be ruled out. The EU will remain distracted by Brexit as it heads into a season of political change beginning with European Parliament elections in May. As a final option, May could commit to resigning to get support for the WA from Conservative Party MPs.

Risk of EU-UK trade disruption remains strong

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Northern Ireland ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Retaliatory Action ◽  
The Eu

Significance The agreement will temporarily cool tensions between the United Kingdom and the EU over the implementation of the Northern Ireland Protocol (NIP). However, underlying problems remain unaddressed and the possibility of targeted retaliatory action by the EU remains significant. Impacts The unionist marching season in July and August threatens to inflame social and political tensions over the NIP in Northern Ireland. Early elections in Northern Ireland would essentially be a referendum on the NIP, and would threaten to damage EU-UK relations further. London may consider an EU-UK veterinary deal if it is temporary and the United Kingdom can withdraw if its ability to sign FTAs is harmed.

The outlook for UK-EU relations is poor

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Northern Ireland ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Institutional Arrangements ◽  
Security Cooperation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Trade Relations ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The Future ◽  
Economic Relationship ◽  
The Eu

Significance They are intended to set the framework for the future economic relationship between the United Kingdom and the EU. However, they have become a source of deep political division and mistrust, exacerbating concerns about the future of their political and economic relationship. Impacts A further deterioration in UK-EU trade relations would threaten to undermine peace and stability in Northern Ireland. Negative trade news is unlikely to shift opinions significantly on Brexit or support for Prime Minister Boris Johnson. UK hostility towards defence and security cooperation underpinned by EU institutional arrangements will remain strong.

Brexit threatens future Irish-UK relations

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Northern Ireland ◽  
Common Law ◽  
General Election ◽  
Mutual Trust ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Minority Government ◽  
Global Influence ◽  
The Eu

Subject The future of Irish-UK relations. Significance Brexit has deeply unsettled relations between Ireland and the United Kingdom, after a generation in which the two states and peoples grew closer in terms of trust, policy convergence and openness to each other. As London looks to strengthen its global influence, closer to home, historical tensions look set to resurface in some form, especially regarding mutual trust and affairs in Northern Ireland. Impacts MI5 will strengthen its operations in Northern Ireland in the event of a hard border. As one of the few common-law countries in the EU after Brexit, Ireland will attract greater legal investment. Once phase one of the Brexit talks are complete, Ireland’s minority government will be forced to call a general election.

No backstop or no deal is Ireland’s Brexit dilemma

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
Free Trade ◽  
Free Trade Agreements ◽  
Trade Agreements ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Increasing Risk ◽  
The Eu

Significance Despite the increasing risk and the implications of a no-deal Brexit, Ireland and the EU remain united in support of the main issue preventing a Brexit deal, the backstop. Impacts A time-limited backstop is the most likely prospect for a Brexit deal compromise. Under a no-deal Brexit, Ireland would be under pressure to implement border checks and controls in order to protect EU rules. No deal would make it harder for the United Kingdom to negotiate free-trade agreements with the EU and the United States.

Prospects for the United Kingdom in 2017

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Labour Party ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Failed Attempt ◽  
Jeremy Corbyn ◽  
Clear Majority

Subject Prospects for the United Kingdom in 2017. Significance Politics this year was shaken by the Brexit referendum, Prime Minister David Cameron's resignation and the failed attempt by a clear majority of the parliamentary Labour Party to force the removal of Jeremy Corbyn as their leader. The economy has remained resilient, but there are the first signs of a slowdown.

UK government is preparing for an early election

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Northern Ireland ◽  
General Election ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Uk Government ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Eu

Significance Johnson's cabinet overhaul is the largest in decades, replacing 17 cabinet ministers from the previous government mostly with individuals who support Johnson’s hard-line stance on Brexit. Impacts Brussels could offer London a ‘Northern Ireland only’ backstop, but this will be rejected by the UK government. The government will likely pass legislation to protect EU citizens’ rights in the United Kingdom if there is a no-deal Brexit. The EU will only grant another extension if a deal is almost agreed, or if there is a UK general election or second Brexit referendum.

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