The US-China deal leaves much contention for phase two

Significance A limited number of the bilateral disputes are addressed -- primarily trade and intellectual property (IP) protections -- but unresolved fundamental differences over Beijing’s state-led economic model, including government support for Chinese enterprises, indigenous technology development and cyber theft, are deferred to phase two. Impacts Achieving a comprehensive phase two deal may prove impossible, presaging smaller, issue-specific agreements. Without clarity on the phase two timetable, multinational firms will continue reducing their supply-chain reliance on China. The United States will still hinder China gaining US advanced technology via direct investment and access to US universities. The deal will provide impetus for concluding a US-China bilateral investment treaty. The brake that the trade war imposed on the commodity price cycle upswing will be released and agricultural prices will rise.

2021 ◽  
Vol 196 ◽  
pp. 678-708

678Arbitration — Arbitration award — International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes (“ICSID”) — ICSID Convention, 1965 — Article 54 — Enforcement proceedings — Convention on the Settlement of Investment Disputes Act 1966 giving ICSID Convention domestic effect in United StatesJurisdiction — Subject matter jurisdiction over enforcement of an ICSID Award — Foreign Sovereign Immunities Act 1976 — Act of State doctrine — Foreign sovereign compulsion doctrine — Whether act of State doctrine or foreign sovereign compulsion doctrine barring enforcement of an ICSID AwardState immunity — Jurisdiction — Petition to enforce arbitration award — Foreign Sovereign Immunities Act 1976 — Exceptions to sovereign immunity — Arbitration exception — Romania’s agreement to arbitrate — Whether Romania’s agreement to arbitrate nullified by Romania’s accession to European Union — Whether United States court having jurisdiction to enforce arbitration awardTreaties — ICSID Convention, 1965 — Sweden–Romania Bilateral Investment Treaty, 2002 — Romania’s agreement to arbitrate — Romania acceding to European Union in 2007 — Whether Romania’s agreement to arbitrate nullified by Romania’s accession to European Union — Whether United States court having jurisdiction to enforce arbitration awardRelationship of international law and municipal law — Treaties — ICSID Convention, 1965 — Obligations of the State under ICSID Convention — United States law — Convention on the Settlement of Investment Disputes Act 1966 — Section 3 — Jurisdiction of federal courts to enforce an ICSID award whilst award subject of review by a foreign sovereign — The law of the United States


Subject Correlation between oil prices, equity markets and global growth. Significance Weak global growth and volatile equity markets in early 2016 illustrate how the real economy and distressed investors are struggling with rapid changes in such key parameters as the new energy and commodity price regime. This is because the 'losers' have to react quickly, plunging economies into recession before the 'gainers' generate any positive effects. These asymmetries, along with disappointing data, are spooking stock markets into a broad-based sell-off. After a nearly 10% fall in global equities between end-December and mid-February wiped as much as 6-7 trillion dollars off wealth, markets have rallied, especially in the United States, where key indices have recouped losses to trade at levels last seen at end-2015. Impacts A recovery in global growth prospects could emerge by mid-2016, stabilising commodity prices and underpinning gains in equity markets. Distressed sales of assets should abate and have less influence on markets. Easing fears over China will help markets rebound after the panic attack in early 2016. The consumer benefits of low energy and food costs have disappointed, but there could be higher spending throughout 2016.


Significance US President Donald Trump last month targeted Canada’s supply management system for dairy, poultry and eggs as an example of unfair restrictions on agricultural exports to that country. Meanwhile, Canada, Mexico, China and the EU, the largest US farm export markets, are imposing retaliatory measures on key agricultural and food imports from the United States in response to US tariffs on steel, aluminium and Chinese manufactured goods. Impacts The tariffs will disrupt agricultural markets, trade and supply chains globally, and commodity price volatility will increase. Food security and price stability worries will rise and may spark a vicious circle of more restrictions and interventions by governments. Chinese retaliation is targeting US agricultural and processed food exports, affecting activity in ‘swing’ states ahead of the elections.


2014 ◽  
Vol 43 (6) ◽  
pp. 898-914 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hang-yue Ngo ◽  
Chun-Yan Jiang ◽  
Raymond Loi

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to attempt to investigate the relationship between human resource management (HRM) competency and firm performance. Drawn upon the resource-based view and alignment theory, HRM competency is expected to be related to the adoption of high performance work systems (HPWS) and the achievement of external fit in HRM, which in turn contribute to firm performance. Design/methodology/approach – The data for this study were collected via a survey of in 157 Chinese enterprises located in the high technology development zone of three large cities. Two different respondents from each firm provided information about organizational characteristics, HRM policy and practices, and firm performance. Multiple regressions were used to test the hypotheses. Findings – Results indicate that HRM competency has a significant and positive effect on firm performance. Such an effect is found to be mediated by the achievement of external fit, but not the adoption of HPWS. Research limitations/implications – Limitations of the study include cross-sectional data, perceptual measure of firm performance, omission of external variables, and restricted sample. This study highlights the importance of HRM competency in strategic HRM, and provides evidence about how this construct is linked to firm performance. Originality/value – This is the first study that explores the effect of HRM competency on the adoption of HPWS and the achievement of external fit. It further reveals that the achievement of external fit mediates the relationship between HRM competency and firm performance, and hence contributes to the HRM literature.


Subject African carriers. Significance The African air transport market presents significant untapped potential demand. Recent growth in GDP and in air traffic across several Sub-Saharan African states has led to a wave of government-sponsored backing for new or rejuvenated national carriers. This comes despite successive new flag carriers failing to secure market foothold. Impacts Emerging carriers will struggle to ensure enough government support over the medium to long term. Poor risk-based strategic management will mean many new carriers are unable to attract enough private-sector investment. A more open regulatory environment could provide newer carriers with profitable new route opportunities, including to the United States.


Significance The popular shift coincides with growing China scepticism within legislatures, which has already had a major impact on policy towards Chinese telecoms firm Huawei in the United Kingdom and Germany. Politicians are increasingly focused on the need to safeguard European values and interests vis-à-vis China. Impacts COVID-19 has also seen public views of the United States and Russia worsen; this could strengthen European unity and cooperation. Shifting European policy and opinion towards China will make Beijing less inclined to agree to an investment treaty with the EU. Concerns over China's behaviour and the effect of US sanctions on Huawei could see other countries follow the UK lead in banning the firm.


Subject China's plan to blacklist foreign firms for denying supplies to Chinese customers. Significance China’s Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) is responding to US export controls by creating a new tool to punish foreign businesses that curtail supplies to Chinese enterprises for non-commercial reasons: the Unreliable Entity List (UEL). China has not shied away from targeting foreign businesses for political reasons in the past. The UEL gives it a much more powerful tool to do so. Impacts The United States is the target for now, but once in place the UEL can easily be used against other countries. An export control bill now in the works will hasten the decoupling of China and the West. Foreign firms in sensitive sectors may opt to curtail their presence in China preventatively, or curry greater favour with Beijing.


2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 229-241
Author(s):  
Edward Kane

PurposeThis paper explains the value of interpreting the design of a country's financial safety net as an exercise in incomplete social contracting.Design/methodology/approachSafety net contracts unlucky financial institutions and customers to transfer some or all of what would otherwise be ruinous losses to taxpayers in other sectors. Their capacity to do this is based on a series of unspoken and slowly varying cultural norms that govern when government support is supplied to an insolvent bank, in what forms, on what terms and under what limitations. Identifying these norms is the purpose of this paper. Identifying similarities in the norms that hold sway in the United States and China is the main contribution this paper has to offer.FindingsRegulators do not want to face the consequences of challenging large insolvent banks' claims that funding problems that their managers know to be hopeless reflect a spate of reversible bad luck and a temporary shortfall in liquidity. In hopes of shifting the problem forward to their successors, regulators forbear from meaningful intervention until and unless crisis-driven depositor runs force them into action.Research limitations/implicationsThis means that much like US rescue arrangements, one can demonstrate that the Chinese safety net is incomplete in four ways. It does not fully delineate the events that trigger a loss transfer. It sets formal but imperfectly enforceable limits on the size of potential loss transfers. The political obligations that actually persuade state actors to bail out major banks in a crisis are largely implicit and optional in timing, magnitude and transparency. Finally, the identity of the citizens who will be forced to absorb the costs of crisis bailouts is also optional. Who pays and how they do so will be determined in part during the crisis but will not be finalized until well after the crisis has blown over.Originality/valueThe analysis makes it clear that authorities, express commitment to fair and efficient modes of financial supervision is destined to break down under crisis pressure unless the disadvantaged equity stake that the safety net assigns to taxpayers is rebalanced to record and collect taxpayers' deserved share of the profits a country's megabanks book during booms.


Subject Turkmen investment hopes. Significance Turkmenistan suffers from a lack of investment, excessive reliance on extractive industries and a shortage of export revenues due to the limited range of pipelines for its rich gas reserves. Japan is seen as one prospective investment source with the capacity to provide finance as well as advanced technology. Impacts The leadership in Ashgabat will try to avoid taking any position on neighbouring Iran's differences with the United States. Turkmenistan is friendlier towards Uzbekistan but shows no sign of joining its regional engagement drive. Perceived security risks from Afghanistan may force greater cooperation with regional neighbours. New gas-processing plants are a first but as yet inadequate step towards diversification into value-added products.


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