Oil will challenge fragile institutions in Guyana

Significance Guyana, hitherto a non-oil producing state, will produce growing volumes of crude oil. This will bring a range of consequences, potentially both positive and negative. It will see Guyana's GDP per capita soar, its balance of payments improve and the government’s income grow. However, it will also face so-called ‘resource curse’ risks, including economic distortions, corruption, wasteful government spending, ’Dutch disease’ and potentially even geopolitical complications. Impacts The government will struggle to manage expectations and use an unprecedented inflow of revenues to best advantage. Guyana’s new-found wealth could inflame tensions with neighbouring Venezuela, which claims much of its territory. There is a low but potentially high-impact risk that serious confrontation with Venezuela could bring in other players.

Author(s):  
Konrad Rojek

Purpose This study aims to present the issue of the international systemic competitiveness of the Polish economy. The essence of this concept was shown, as well as the measures and methods of analysis used. The aim of the research was to identify the factors that had the greatest impact on the formation of the international systemic competitiveness of the Polish economy. Design/methodology/approach An econometric model was constructed to explain the shaping of the value of the dependent variable (gross domestic product [GDP] per capita) in the years 2004–2019. For this purpose, explanatory variables were used selected from among the measures of the international systemic competitiveness of the Polish economy. The developed econometric model was verified to check its practical usefulness. This process was performed using the Gretl program. The research also used the Pentagon Model of Macroeconomic Stabilization, which was used to examine the general economic development of Poland because of which it is possible to conclude about the international systemic competitiveness of the economy. Findings In the analyzed period (2004–2019), the international systemic competitiveness of the Polish economy was to the greatest extent conditioned by such factors as government integrity, tax burdens and investment freedom. It is significant that the integrity of the government had a negative impact on the value of GDP per capita. Practical implications The results of the conducted research may be particularly useful for the institutional sphere. They indicate systemic factors that had the greatest impact on the prosperity of Polish society in the analyzed period. This enables the weakest elements of the policy to be identified and improved. Proper applications and appropriate corrective actions will have a positive economic effect. Originality/value So far, it has not been possible to develop/indicate a uniform and generally accepted measure and method of analyzing international systemic competitiveness. Therefore, all attempts to assess and measure systemic competitiveness have a high research value. The vast majority of studies on the international competitiveness of the economy focus only on assessing its level (growth, decline and comparison with other countries). When building an econometric model (based on the 2004–2019 time series), the author also checks the impact of its individual components, not only its level. On this basis, it can be deduced, which factors influenced the competitiveness in a given period to a greater extent, positively or negatively.


2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 44
Author(s):  
Alexander Baranovsky ◽  
Nataliia Tkachenko ◽  
Vladimer Glonti ◽  
Valentyna Levchenko ◽  
Kateryna Bogatyrova ◽  
...  

Traditionally, public procurement has been associated with the measurement of achieving savings. However, recent research shows that the economic impact of public procurement is not limited only to savings, but by measuring the impact of four capitals—natural, human, social, and economic—on sustainable well-being over time. Ukraine is a country with a very low gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, which exacerbates the problem of the impact of public procurement results on the population’s welfare. Ukrainian public procurement legislation allows customers to apply non-price criteria (the share of non-price criteria cannot be more than 70%), which, together, are taken into account in the formula of the quoted price. The studies show that the effect of the use of non-price criteria depends on the relevance of the method of the evaluation of non-price criteria. The most important non-price criteria for Ukrainian customers by product categories and the methods of their evaluation are analyzed according to the Bi.prozorro.org analytics module. Therefore, it is concluded that the quoted price method, which is used in Ukrainian practice, is not relevant in comparison with the method used in the EU. A survey of the government buyers on the practice of applying non-price criteria was conducted, and the areas of their use were identified.


2019 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 249-275
Author(s):  
Jake David Hoskins ◽  
Ryan Leick

Purpose This study aims to investigate a sharing economy context, where vacation rental units that are owned and operated by individuals throughout the world are rented out through a common website: vrbo.com. It is posited that gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, a common indicator of the level of economic development of a nation, will impact the likelihood that prospective travelers will choose to book accommodations in the sharing economy channel (vs traditional hotels). The role of online customer reviews in this process is investigated as well, building upon a significant body of extant research which shows their level of customer decision influence. Design/methodology/approach An empirical analysis is conducted using data from the website Vacation Rentals By Owner on 1,940 rental listings across 97 countries. Findings GDP per capita serves as risk deterrent to prospective travelers, making the sharing economy an acceptable alternative to traditional hotels for the average traveler. It is also found that the total number of online customer reviews (OCR volume) is a signal of popularity to prospective travelers, while the average star rating of those online customer reviews (OCR valence) is instead a signal of accommodation quality. Originality/value This study adds to a growing agenda of research investigating the effect of online customer reviews on consumer decisions, with a particularly focus on the burgeoning sharing economy. The findings help to explain when the sharing economy may serve as a stronger disruptive threat to incumbent offerings. It also provides the following key insights for managers: sharing economy rental units in developed nations are more successful in driving booking activity, managers should look to promote volume of online customer reviews and positive online customer reviews are particularly influential for sharing economy rental booking rates in less developed nations.


Author(s):  
Antonia Gkergki

This paper examines the relationship between the energy consumption and economic growth from 1968 to 2019 in Greece, by employing the vector error-correction model estimation. A series of econometric tests are employed concerning the stationary of the data, and the co-integration and the relationship among the variables during the long- and short-term. The em-pirical results suggest that there is no bidirectional relationship between economic growth and energy consumption. More specifically, GDP per capita does not affect the energy consump-tion of the three primary sources either in the long-term or the short-term. In other words, the economic crisis and its implications for GDP do not affect energy consumption, and they are not responsible for the considerable decrease in energy sources' consumption. On the other hand, the energy consumption of oil and coal negatively affect the GDP per capita. These re-sults are different from previous studies' conclusions for Greece; this is because the never been experienced before. These findings raise new research questions and also show the limi-tations of the Greek market, as it is regulated and controlled by the government.


2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 325-341 ◽  
Author(s):  
Malgorzata Dziembala

Purpose This paper aims to analyse the competitiveness of the regions of the Visegrad countries (Czechia, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia) with respect to their sustainability and discuss the role of the EU cohesion policy in promoting regional competitiveness in this dimension. Design/methodology/approach The sustainable competitiveness of Visegrad Group countries was analysed with the use of a taxonomic method, to determine the regions with the highest, middle and low level of the sustainable development (competitiveness). The level of sustainable competitiveness of the Visegrad regions was indicated based on the author’s own set of diagnostic variables which define three dimensions of sustainability. Findings The analysis revealed that the regions of the Visegrad Group countries with high GDP per capita are not necessarily ranked high in terms of sustainable competitiveness. The obtained results confirm the assumption that traditional indicators such as GDP per capita do not capture all aspects of social and environmental sustainability. Thus, the cohesion policy in the Visegrad Group countries should be diversified and adjusted to the special needs of the regions with particular emphasis being laid on sustainability dimension and the level of their economic development. When identifying the directions of support under the cohesion policy, special attention should be paid to the development of modern technologies, including information and communication technology (ICT), that facilitate the transformation of regions towards the smart regions path. Research limitations/implications Because of the data availability, it covers only one year, 2014, where it was possible. Further investigation should focus on the comparison of the changes over a certain period and changes that took place in the ranking. In addition, a detailed analysis of the regions with regard to their development of the “sustainable path” should be considered. It is essential to support less developed regions in the field of the sustainable and inclusive development through cohesion policy which is supported in 2014-2020. However, it is also important to promote the ICT investment in the lagging regions. Practical implications The analysed 35 regions of the Visegrad countries were ranked according to their level of sustainable competitiveness. The three groups of regions were distinguished. The first place in the ranking was occupied by the region which recorded the highest value of the TMC – a taxonomic measure of sustainable competitiveness and the last region – it is the region with the lowest value of the TMC. Originality/value The paper discusses the concept of sustainable competitiveness of regions. The level of sustainable competitiveness of the Visegrad regions was indicated based on the own set of diagnostic variables which define three dimensions of sustainability. The paper makes a contribution to the discussion on the regional smart and sustainable competitiveness and the role of EU cohesion policy in supporting the sustainable competitiveness.


Significance Among those policies are measures targeted at youth unemployment and social care for older people, aimed at attracting left-wing support. Most importantly, Macron has committed to relaunching his controversial pension reforms, which triggered widespread social unrest in late 2019 and early 2020. Impacts Mandatory vaccination could trigger protests and legal action against the government. The centre-right Republicans could take support from Macron if they unite around a strong presidential candidate over the coming months. Macron will likely push for looser EU fiscal rules to facilitate more government spending beyond 2022.


Significance Municipal elections on May 16 will be particularly significant in Zagreb, where Bandic’s death lays wide open Croatia’s third-most-important political contest, after those for parliament and the presidency. His 20-year rule of Croatia’s capital was dogged by accusations of corruption, including a spell in prison awaiting trial. He died with the Agram case and an appeal against acquittal in another case undecided. Impacts Bandic was a key HDZ ally in the capital, where the ruling party has little traction. His well-established network of political and business associates could try to survive under new leadership. Zagreb is a key political prize in Croatia, with GDP per capita twice the national average and one-fifth of the population.


2019 ◽  
Vol 46 (2) ◽  
pp. 446-466 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joao Jalles

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to assess the responses of different categories of government spending to changes in economic activity. In other words, the authors empirically revisit the validation of the Wagner’s law in a sample of 61 advanced and emerging market economies between 1995 and 2015. Design/methodology/approach The authors do so via panel data instrumental variables and time-series SUR approaches. Findings Evidence from panel data analyses show that the Wagner’s law seems more prevalent in advanced economies and when countries are growing above potential. However, such result depends on the government spending category under scrutiny and the functional form used. Country-specific analysis revealed relatively more cases satisfying Wagner’s proposition within the emerging markets sample. The authors also found evidence of counter-cyclicality in several spending items. All in all, the Wagner’s regularity seems more the exception than the norm. Originality/value While in the literature on the size of the public sector with respect to a country’s level of economic development has received much attention, the authors make several novel contributions: since some economists criticized Wagner’s law because of ambiguity of the measurement of government expenditure (Musgrave, 1969), instead of looking at aggregate public expenditures, the authors go much more granular into the different functions of government (to this end, the authors use the Classification of Functions of the Government nomenclature). The authors check the validity of the Law via an instrumental variable approach in a panel setting; after that, the authors take into account the phase of the business cycle using a new filtering technique to compute potential GDP (output gap); then, the authors cross-check the baseline results by considering alternative functional form specifications of the Law; and finally, the authors look at individual countries one at the time via SUR analysis.


2020 ◽  
Vol 47 (7) ◽  
pp. 1689-1710
Author(s):  
Eric Akobeng

PurposeThis paper examines the relationship between foreign aid, institutional democracy and poverty. The paper explores the direct effect of foreign aid on poverty and quantifies the facilitating role of democracy in harnessing foreign aid for poverty reduction in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA).Design/methodology/approachThe paper attempts to address the endogenous relationship between foreign aid and poverty by employing the two-stage least squares instrumental variable (2SLS-IV) estimator by using GDP per capita of the top five Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries sending foreign aid to SSA countries scaled by the inverse of the land area of the SSA countries to stimulate an exogenous variation in foreign aid and its components. The initial level of democracy is interacted with the senders’ GDP per capita to also instrument for the interaction terms of democracy, foreign aid and its components.FindingsThe results suggest that foreign aid reduces poverty and different components of foreign aid have different effects on poverty. In particular, multilateral source and grant type seem to be more significant in reducing poverty than bilateral source and loan type. The study further reveals that democratic attributes of free expression, institutional constraints on the executive, guarantee of civil liberties to citizens and political participation reinforce the poverty-reducing effects of aggregate foreign aid and its components after controlling for mean household income, GDP per capita and inequality.Research limitations/implicationsThe methodological concern related to modeling the effects of foreign aid on poverty is endogeneity bias. To estimate the relationship between foreign aid, democracy and poverty in SSA, this paper relies on a 2SLS-IV estimator with GDP per capita of the top five aid-sending OECD countries scaled by the inverse of land area of the SSA countries as an external instrument for foreign aid. The use of the five top OECD's Development Assistance Committee (OECD-DAC) countries is due to the availability of foreign aid data for these countries. However, non-OECD-DAC countries such as China and South Africa may be important source of foreign aid to some SSA countries.Practical implicationsThe findings further suggest that the marginal effect of foreign aid in reducing poverty is increasing with the level of institutional democracy. In other words, foreign aid contributes more to poverty reduction in countries with democratic dispensation. This investigation has vital implications for future foreign aid policy, because it alerts policymakers that the effectiveness of foreign aid can be strengthened by considering the type and source of aid. Foreign aid and quality political institution may serve as an important mix toward the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals 2030 and the Africa Union Agenda 2063.Social implicationsAs the global economy faces economic and social challenges, SSA may not be able to depend heavily on foreign partners to finance the region's budget. There is the need for African governments to also come out with innovative ways to mobilize own resources to develop and confront some of the economic challenges to achieve the required reduction in poverty. This is a vision that every country in Africa must work toward. Africa must think of new ways of generating wealth internally for development so as to complement foreign aid flows and also build strong foundation for welfare improvement, self-reliance and sustainable development.Originality/valueThis existing literature does not consider how democracy enhances the foreign aid and poverty relationship. The existing literature does not explore how democracy enhances grants, loans, multilateral and bilateral aid effectiveness in reducing poverty. This paper provides the first-hand evidence of how institutional democracy enhances the poverty-reducing effects of foreign aid and its components. The paper uses exogenous variation in foreign aid to quantify the direct effect of foreign aid and its components on poverty.


2018 ◽  
Vol 45 (2) ◽  
pp. 372-386 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gitana Dudzevičiūtė ◽  
Agnė Šimelytė ◽  
Aušra Liučvaitienė

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to provide more reliable estimates of the relationship between government spending and economic growth in the European Union (EU) during the period of 1995-2015. Design/methodology/approach The methodology consisted of several different stages. In the first stage for an assessment of dynamics of government spending and economic growth indicators over two decades, descriptive statistics analysis was employed. Correlation analysis helped to identify the relationships between government expenditures (GEs) and economic growth. In the third stage, for modeling the relationship and the estimation of causality between GE and economic growth, Granger causality testing was applied. Findings The research indicated that eight EU countries have a significant relationship between government spending and economic growth. Research limitations/implications This study has been bounded by general GE and economic growth only. The breakdowns of general GE on the basis of the activities they support have not been considered in this paper, which is the main limitation of the research. Despite the limitation, it might be maintained that the research highlights key relationships in the EU countries. Originality/value These insights might be useful for policy makers. In countries with unidirectional causality running from GE to economic growth, the government can employ expenditure as a factor for growth. The governments should ensure that resources are properly managed and efficiently allocated to accelerate economic growth in the countries with unidirectional causality from GDP to GE.


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