Ecuador prison system poses challenges for Moreno

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Latin American ◽  
Relative Stability ◽  
Public Spending ◽  
Prison System ◽  
Security Policies ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Latin American Countries

Subject Ecuador's crumbling prison system. Significance Ecuador experiences lower levels of crime than many Latin American countries but insecurity is mounting. A wave of protests that swept the country in October was accompanied by widespread looting and vandalism, indicating the difficulties facing President Lenin Moreno in maintaining order after a decade of relative stability under his predecessor, Rafael Correa. Prison conditions have deteriorated and violence is increasing. The capacity of the government to strengthen the prison system and curb criminality is hindered by its lack of legitimacy and its efforts to cut public spending. Impacts Mounting crime and violence will favour right-wing politicians and parties who promise hard-line security policies. Correa will seize on rising disorder to discredit Moreno, pointing to the relative stability achieved during his presidency. Weak economic conditions and escalating drug trafficking will continue to fuel crime, placing pressure on the prison system.

Oreskovic government in Croatia may prove short-lived

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Instability ◽  
Public Spending ◽  
Economic Restructuring ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Growth Prospects ◽  
The Government ◽  
Social Conservatism

Significance After protracted negotiations, Croatia, at last, has a government, comprising the conservative Patriotic Coalition -- the Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ), plus a few small parties -- and the centre-right Bridge ('Most') of Independent Lists. The government is unusual because it is led by a non-partisan figure, Tihomir Oreskovic, a businessman who grew up in Canada and has only a shaky grasp of the Croatian language. In a best-case scenario, the government could deliver important and necessary reforms. Impacts Efforts to cut public spending will reduce the risk of a damaging financing crisis. A programme of economic restructuring will boost Croatia's long-term growth prospects. The election of two right-wing parties will consolidate the drift towards social conservatism. Tensions in the coalition will perpetuate political instability and could precipitate new elections.

Peruvian political rivals could unite behind Mendoza

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Social Responsibility ◽  
Latin American ◽  
Extractive Industries ◽  
Presidential Candidate ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Content Type ◽  
United Front ◽  
To Receive ◽  
Latin American Countries

Subject A profile of Veronika Mendoza. Significance The election of Veronika Mendoza as presidential candidate for the Frente Amplio ahead of Peru's April elections, gives the left a credible representative in a race otherwise dominated by right-wing candidates. Mendoza is now well-placed to receive endorsement from other sectors of the left on condition that they gain priority positions on a parliamentary slate. Unlike in many other Latin American countries, the left has languished on the sidelines in Peruvian politics since the 1980s. Impacts If it can maintain a united front, the left looks likely to increase its presence in the next Congress. Mendoza represents a far more pragmatic left than that of the former generation of leaders. The left will continue to push for greater social responsibility on the part of extractive industries.

Venezuelan early election call raises a range of risks

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Latin American ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Situation ◽  
Constituent Assembly ◽  
State Of The Union ◽  
Secretary Of State ◽  
The Government ◽  
To Come ◽  
Latin American Countries

Significance On January 23, Venezuela’s National Constituent Assembly (ANC) called for presidential elections to be brought forward to before April 30. The move has exacerbated an already fraught political situation and undermined dialogue between the government and opposition parties. Impacts US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson will visit Mexico, Argentina, Colombia, Peru and Jamaica from February 1; Venezuela is a key issue. Oil sanctions would have a catastrophic effect on ordinary Venezuelans; Latin American countries are unlikely to come on board. US President Donald Trump’s State of the Union speech today will be scrutinised for what he says (or does not say) about Venezuela.

Mexico's weak GDP growth will outlast Pena Nieto

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Latin American ◽  
Economic Reforms ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Severe Problem ◽  
Content Type ◽  
World Economic ◽  
The Government ◽  
Latin American Countries ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject GDP growth shows no sign of improving in the short-term. Significance In its most recent update to its World Economic Outlook, the IMF lowered its forecast for Mexico's 2016 GDP growth to 2.4% from 2.6% foreseen in January. This figure compares well with other Latin American countries -- notably Brazil and Venezuela -- yet it marks the continuation of a trend of meagre expansion that has characterised President Enrique Pena Nieto's time in office despite his efforts to introduce economic reforms. Impacts Further reform to encourage greater flexibility in the labour market will be key to increasing small business productivity. Low growth and a lack of prospects for the young will feed into Mexico's rising crime rates. The lack of growth could become a severe problem for the government both directly and indirectly in the 2018 election.

Brunei economic woes could see China opening

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Spending ◽  
Living Standards ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Structural Reforms ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Government Services ◽  
Revenue Source ◽  
The Government

Subject Update on Brunei's economy. Significance Tightening economic conditions may prompt Brunei to renege on a global commitment to lower oil output until mid-year, which is eroding the sultanate's primary revenue source. In response, the government has instituted public spending cutbacks that risk depressing living standards. Impacts Falling oil volumes have led to sharp cutbacks in government services. The expected demise of the TPP will remove a potential trade opportunity. Progress with structural reforms of government and business will be slow.

The government spending multiplier in Latin American countries: Does the institutional environment matter?

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Rafael Acevedo ◽  
Jose U. Mora ◽  
Andrew T. Young
Keyword(s):  
International Trade ◽  
Latin American ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Capital Mobility ◽  
Economic Freedom ◽  
Institutional Environment ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Trade Share ◽  
Latin American Countries

PurposeMora and Acevedo (2019) report that the government spending multipliers in Latin American countries are notably higher than what is typically reported for developed economies. Latin American countries have been inclined toward using procyclical fiscal policies. Those policies have been perceived as being effective at mitigating the effects of the 2008–2009 Great Recession. This study aims to estimate the government spending multiplier using Latin American panel data from 19 Latin American countries from 2000 to 2018. The estimates are conditional on the extent of openness, capital mobility and economic freedom. Based on the results, the latter is important: the less economically free a country, the larger its spending multiplier. Lower economic freedom in Latin American countries can help to account for their large spending multipliers. In particular, restrictions on international trade are positively associated with multipliers. This is the case even while controlling the trade share of GDP. Design/methodology/approachThe authors provide regression results that are conditional on the extent of openness, capital mobility and economic freedom. FindingsThe less economically free a country, the larger its spending multiplier. Lower economic freedom in Latin American countries can help to account for their large spending multipliers. In particular, restrictions on international trade are positively associated with multipliers. This is the case even while controlling the trade share of GDP. Originality/valueTo the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is first study to estimate the fiscal multiplier conditional on economic freedom levels. The authors provide correctly calculated multipliers conditional on different levels of economic freedom. The authors point the way to future studies considering the effectiveness of fiscal policy conditional on institutional/policy quality.

scholarly journals When Does the Public Get It Right? The Information Environment and the Accuracy of Economic Sentiment

2021 ◽  
pp. 001041402198975
Author(s):  
Ryan E. Carlin ◽  
Timothy Hellwig ◽  
Gregory J. Love ◽  
Cecilia Martínez-Gallardo ◽  
Matthew M. Singer
Keyword(s):  
Latin American ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Economic Evaluations ◽  
Government Performance ◽  
Access To Information ◽  
Government Accountability ◽  
The Public ◽  
High Quality Information ◽  
The Media ◽  
Latin American Countries

Public evaluations of the economy are key for understanding how citizens develop policy opinions and monitor government performance. But what drives economic evaluations? In this article, we argue the context in which information about the economy is distributed shapes economic perceptions. In high-quality information environments—where policies are transparent, the media is free, and political opposition is robust—mass perceptions closely track economic conditions. In contrast, compromised information environments provide openings for political manipulation, leading perceptions to deviate from business cycle fluctuations. We test our argument with unique data from eight Latin American countries. Results show restrictions on access to information distort the public’s view of economic performance. The ability of voters to sanction governments is stronger when democratic institutions and the media protect citizens’ access to independent, unbiased information. Our findings highlight the importance of accurate evaluations of the economy for government accountability and democratic responsiveness.

Evolution of financial inclusion in Latin America

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (2) ◽  
pp. 261-276
Author(s):  
Lisana B. Martinez ◽  
Valeria Scherger ◽  
M. Belén Guercio ◽  
Sofía Orazi
Keyword(s):  
Latin American ◽  
Credit Cards ◽  
Financial Inclusion ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The World Bank ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Main Determinants ◽  
Binary Probit ◽  
Positive Evolution ◽  
Latin American Countries

PurposeThis paper analyses the evolution of the financial inclusion and its main determinants in seven Latin American countries.Design/methodology/approachThe database used is the Global Findex from the World Bank for the latest data released that includes the years 2011 and 2014. The variables used are formal financial accounts, formal savings and formal credit as proxies of financial inclusion for the years of study. Moreover, the use of debit and credit cards is considered. The methodologies applied are the mean difference tests, in order to contrast the hypotheses of the inclusion evolution and binary probit regressions models.FindingsThe results of the analysis show that there is a positive evolution in the use of financial instruments in the countries of the sample, especially in the use of formal accounts. On the other hand, considering the characteristics of the individuals, age, level of education and income positively affect their financial inclusion.Originality/valueThere are no similar works for the region of study that allow us to evaluate the evolution of financial inclusion considering the variables selected in the literature. It is possible to clearly fulfil the proposed objective, highlighting the importance of implementing financial inclusion policies in view of the low percentage of use of the instruments in the analyzed countries.

scholarly journals The performance of corporate bond issuers in times of financial crisis: empirical evidence from Latin America

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Marc Berninger ◽  
Bruno Fiesenig ◽  
Dirk Schiereck
Keyword(s):  
Latin America ◽  
Latin American ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Corporate Bond ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Corporate Debt ◽  
Market Reactions ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Financing Decisions ◽  
Theoretical Approaches

PurposeThe fundamental theory of Modigliani and Miller (1958) states that a firm's financing decisions are independent from the firm's value. Nevertheless, several empirical studies as well as theoretical approaches from the past decade impugn this relation for real markets with their immanent inefficiencies. However, these questions are rather than academic in nature: Especially the influence of macroeconomic conditions on the market perception of debt issues is from high economic importance, since the need for new liquidity usually becomes even more urgent when the economic conditions worsen.Design/methodology/approachThis paper analyzes the reaction of shareholders to the issue of debt by Latin American firms under special consideration of the macroeconomic sentiment. To do so, a sample of debt issued by Latin American companies between 2003 and 2010 is empirically examined through an event study.FindingsThe authors empirically demonstrate that specifically in Latin America, debt issuing companies show a significant underperformance during recessionary periods and an overperformance during nonrecessionary periods. These findings differ from previous results for mature capital markets. The authors conclude that not only the overall economic conditions matter to explain stock market reactions on bond issues but also the maturity of the corporate debt market plays an important role.Originality/valueThe authors provide first evidence that the previously described changes in the returns on specific stocks depending on the economic sentiment (Baker and Wurgler, 2006) are under certain conditions also present in the market for corporate debt.

scholarly journals Smart Regulation in times of COVID 19: An introspective preliminary analysis for its application in Ecuador

2020 ◽  
pp. 120-164
Author(s):  
Jennifer Vanessa Zaldumbide Vaca ◽  
Angie Nathaly Santacruz Mediavilla ◽  
Pamela Fernanda Heredia Pazmiño
Keyword(s):  
Quality Of Life ◽  
Latin American ◽  
The United States ◽  
Better Regulation ◽  
Smart Regulation ◽  
The Government ◽  
First World ◽  
Latin American Countries ◽  
Fundamental Entity

Better regulation is a public policy that governments implement to improve the quality of life of their citizens. These policies bring significant benefits to all market players, among the most palpable are innovation, administrative simplification, a clear commitment by the government, and competitiveness. A fundamental entity for the development of this type of regulation is the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), whose main objective is to create policies that improve the quality of life of citizens around the world. Among the members of this organization are first world countries such as the United States and Spain, as well as third world Latin American countries such as Mexico and Colombia, whose government administration serves as a model for the Ecuadorian people. It is because, without considering that their economies are not as large, developed, and stable, they have managed with the commitment, perseverance, and responsibility to be supported by this international institution. Nowadays, the problem of over and deregulation that has remained in Ecuador. Since the beginning of its history, it serves as an axis of study to propose the implementation of regulatory improvement within its political system. In order do this, it must be considering the principles of governance, proper preparation for its application, and the professionalism of all market players.

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