A backstop solution to Brexit has some potential

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Northern Ireland ◽  
Free Trade Agreement ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Special Treatment ◽  
Northern Irish ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Article 50 ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Eu

Subject Brexit negotiations. Significance A Northern Ireland-specific agreement is now the best hope for UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson to deliver Brexit by October 31 with a deal. While Johnson would likely accept alignment of Northern Ireland with EU rules if this meant replacing the UK-wide backstop, convincing his Northern Irish allies in the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) remains the key challenge. Impacts Delivering Brexit with a deal will increase the prospects for a UK-US free trade agreement. A risk of a Northern Ireland backstop is that it will invite pressure from Scottish nationalists, who would want similar special treatment. The EU is likely to accept an Article 50 extension request if an election or referendum is due to take place.

Support for Scottish independence is growing stronger

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Economic Impacts ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Uk Government ◽  
Scottish Independence ◽  
The Uk ◽  
First Time ◽  
The Eu ◽  
Sustained Increase

Significance For the first time, there is a sustained increase in support for Scottish independence. The main reasons include dislike of UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his cabinet north of the border, the UK government’s pursuit of a ‘hard’ Brexit and questions about its response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Impacts Soaring Scottish unemployment when the UK furlough schemes end would undermine London’s claim to be protecting Scottish jobs. Rising support for Scottish independence could prompt the UK government to seek a closer trade agreement with the EU. The UK government will be unable to conceal the economic impacts of Brexit under the economic fallout of COVID-19. A Scottish vote for independence would put huge pressure on the UK government to resign and call early elections.

Northern Irish issue threatens EU-UK trade relations

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Northern Ireland ◽  
International Law ◽  
European Parliament ◽  
Northern Irish ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Trade Relations ◽  
Low Levels ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Eu

Significance The manner of the UK move is not only damaging for the implementation of the Northern Ireland Protocol (NIP), but also has the potential to affect the wider EU-UK trading relationship. Impacts Low levels of trust will make it difficult for the EU and UK teams to find practical solutions to the NIP’s implementation. A further deterioration in EU-UK relations over the NIP could threaten the ratification of the EU-UK trade deal in the European Parliament. The United Kingdom’s threats to break international law threaten to damage its credibility among foreign and international actors.

Economic woe presents greatest risk to Thai government

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Free Trade Agreement ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
The United States ◽  
Military Coup ◽  
Direct Control ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Thai Government ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Eu

Subject Problems facing the Thai government. Significance Thailand’s government, led by a party with ties to the junta that ruled until July, is facing political and economic headwinds as it tries to establish civilian rule. The king is consolidating his authority, political opponents are pushing back on the ruling coalition and exports are weakening, raising quandaries for Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha. Impacts A worsening trade outlook will prompt the government to step up efforts to secure a free trade agreement with the EU. Thailand and the United States will take time to strengthen bilateral ties, nominally mended when Prayut visited Washington in 2017. The army units under the king’s direct control could provide cover for rival factions to Prayut’s in the event of another military coup.

A ‘phase one’ UK-US trade deal is possible

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Free Trade ◽  
Free Trade Agreement ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Conservative Government ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Eu

Subject UK-US trade talks. Significance The first round of virtual UK-US free trade negotiations began on Tuesday May 5 and conclude today. While a free trade agreement (FTA) with the United States is a stated priority for the UK government, it will be difficult to conclude a comprehensive deal this year, in particular due to divisions over agrifood and medicine, while there is also not enough time. However, the chances of the United Kingdom and United States agreeing a deal narrower in scope than a fully-fledged FTA are higher. Impacts The main obstacles in reaching an FTA will be regulatory ones. It will be almost impossible for London to address regulatory obstacles with the United States without increasing them in trade with the EU. Washington knows an FTA is politically important for the Conservative government, giving it leverage to shape a favourable deal.

Debates over Irish unification will gain traction

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Northern Ireland ◽  
Status Quo ◽  
Political Agenda ◽  
Successful Implementation ◽  
Northern Irish ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The Status ◽  
Scottish Independence ◽  
The Uk

Significance The differing perspectives of unionists and nationalists on the creation of Northern Ireland as a political entity within the United Kingdom, together with Brexit and tensions over the Northern Ireland Protocol (NIP), have brought the contentious issue of Irish reunification onto the political agenda in Northern Ireland and the Irish Republic. Impacts Scottish independence would likely increase momentum for a referendum on Irish unity. Successful implementation of the NIP, giving firms access to EU and UK markets, may support arguments for maintaining the status quo. If the UK government abandons the NIP, the adverse trade impact on Northern Irish firms could increase support for unification.

UK prime minister will likely remain in power for now

2022 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Northern Ireland ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Conservative Party ◽  
Culture Wars ◽  
Consumer Confidence ◽  
Party Leader ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Public ◽  
Net Zero ◽  
The Eu

Significance As many as a dozen lockdown parties are now alleged to have been held at Downing Street, significantly damaging Johnson’s support among the public and his Conservative Party. His position as party leader and prime minister is gravely threatened. Impacts Johnson’s domestic troubles, coupled with rising economic concerns, increase the chance of an agreement with the EU over Northern Ireland. Disillusionment with Johnson, opposition to net-zero and culture wars open the door for Nigel Farage’s Reform Party to revive its appeal. Rising inflation threatens to undermine consumer confidence and slow the economic recovery over the coming year.

The UK's Withdrawal from the EU

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Dougan
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Northern Ireland ◽  
Critical Analysis ◽  
Legal Perspective ◽  
The Future ◽  
Article 50 ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Eu

Following a national referendum on 23 June 2016, the UK announced its intention to end its decades-long membership of the EU. That decision initiated a process of complex negotiations, governed by Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union, with a view to making the arrangements required for an ‘orderly Brexit’. This book explores the UK’s departure from the EU from a legal perspective. As well as analysing the various constitutional principles relevant to ‘EU withdrawal law’, and detailing the main issues and problems arising during the Brexit process itself, the book provides a critical analysis of the final EU–UK Withdrawal Agreement—including dedicated chapters on the future protection of citizens’ rights, the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland, and the prospects for future EU–UK relations in fields such as trade and security.

EU-UK deal allows Cameron to campaign against Brexit

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Transition Period ◽  
David Cameron ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Eu Membership ◽  
Scottish Independence ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Eu

Subject The package of reforms on a new EU-UK relationship. Significance The agreement between the United Kingdom and its EU partners sets the stage for the UK referendum on EU membership, which Prime Minister David Cameron has set for June 23. Cameron said he had negotiated new terms that would allow the United Kingdom to remain in the EU. Impacts The deal bolsters the campaign to remain in the EU, but the referendum outcome is still highly uncertain. The deal will only come into effect if the outcome is for remaining, forestalling a second referendum for better terms. If the outcome is for leaving, a new relationship with the EU would have to be negotiated during a two-year transition period. It would also probably lead to a second Scottish independence referendum and UK break-up.

UK's Cameron likely to go for EU referendum in 2016

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Conservative Party ◽  
Dutch Government ◽  
German Government ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Eu Membership ◽  
Official Position ◽  
Eu Referendum ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Eu

Subject The government's preferred timetable for the UK referendum on EU membership. Significance The EU membership referendum will be a major event in both EU and UK political and commercial life. Prime Minister David Cameron's official position is that the poll could take place any time before end-2017. He is less concerned about the likely outcome of the referendum, which he is confident will produce an 'in' result, than about achieving a margin in favour of membership that decisively settles the question and minimises the damage to the Conservative Party arising from the process. Impacts The most likely referendum date is September 15, 2016. This timetable would make the key renegotiation period the first half of 2016, when the sympathetic Dutch government chairs the EU Council. The German government would also prefer the UK referendum to be dealt with relatively quickly.

EU-UK Brexit is unlikely to be stopped

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Ongoing Debate ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Uk Government ◽  
Article 50 ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Eu

Significance This comes after the Telegraph reported last week that Soros had donated 400,000 pounds to the group. There is an ongoing debate as to whether the United Kingdom will in fact leave the EU. Central to it is the question of whether the UK government can unilaterally revoke its decision to trigger Article 50 in March 2017. Impacts Voters would be less likely to support the revocation of Article 50 if the Council imposed conditions that made membership less attractive. Revoking Article 50 and remaining in the EU would reduce damage to the UK economy. If Article 50 is revocable, Eurosceptic governments could be tempted to use the prospect of triggering it as leverage in EU negotiations.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document