South Africa's Ramaphosa will stress reform momentum

Significance This included the retention of key officials such as Finance Minister Tito Mboweni and Public Enterprises Minister Pravin Gordhan. While Ramaphosa has committed his administration to reform, a still-large executive and several lacklustre appointments highlight the fragile hold he has over the ruling ANC. Impacts Post-poll turmoil in the main opposition Democratic Alliance (DA) could provide Ramaphosa with a freer hand at parliament in the short term. The appointment of Patricia de Lille could precede the eventual merging of her GOOD party with the ANC. Pressure will grow for the public protector's ouster after several disputed reports and damaging court findings against her.

2016 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 8-23 ◽  
Author(s):  
Phillipe Naszalyi ◽  
Arnaud Slama-Royer

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to analyze the structural problems emerging in the course of managing and safeguarding a French association for home care to a thousand elderly or disabled people between 2007 and 2012, employing 150 - 190 people and on the verge of bankruptcy. In France, small local businesses not only compete with major capital outlets in this sector but also with associations of varying size and origin. Free market rules apply, under the legislation of 2003, to what is, in part, “competition free”, being “in the public interest” and within the framework of local and national public funding. Design/methodology/approach – This paper analyses those pragmatic solutions put in place to meet the aim of shared governance and in the context of a generalized financial crisis. Findings – Borrowing from cooperatives and associations, the non-profit-based management structure the authors arrived at, including worker participation in the decision-making processes, raises questions for researchers as to the advisability of any short-term models and the validity of present social and supportive economic models. Originality/value – The hybrid management of this paper is offered as a working model in what the authors have termed an “adhocracy of stakeholders”.


Significance The public broadcaster may appeal the ruling through the courts. Opposition parties have long bemoaned the dire state of the SABC, but recent controversial moves by Chief Operating Officer (COO) Hlaudi Motsoeneng are dividing the ANC itself. Impacts Social media will feature prominently in political parties' communication strategies ahead of municipal elections in August. Motsoeneng's ban on airing footage of demonstrations will not boost ANC support in protest-wrought Pretoria, where the DA has a clear lead. However, his requirement that 90% of music broadcast must be locally produced will stoke nationalist sentiment. Any major shift in SABC policy -- at least in the short term -- would have to be forced on the broadcaster through court orders.


Subject Infrastructure shortfalls. Significance Finance Minister Kemi Adeosun stated on December 11 that Nigeria will release an additional 750 billion naira (2.1 billion dollars) to federal ministries and agencies for implementation of capital projects. Adeosun has previously said the country must explore alternative sources of financing in the short term to deliver critical road, rail and power infrastructural projects. However, there are concerns about whether additional funding will lead to the delivery of such projects; the World Bank recently said that 50 infrastructure public-private partnership (PPP) projects have not met their objectives because they were hastily designed. Impacts Slow-burning conflict between farmers and herdsmen will cause more internal migration to cities, further straining infrastructure. Major infrastructure gaps will be worst in states such as Lagos and Abia, which are struggling to cope with new migrants and residents. Persistent corruption and a 'kickback' culture will result in higher infrastructure delivery and maintenance costs.


Subject Zimbabwe cash crisis. Significance New Finance Minister Mthuli Ncube implemented a 2% tax on money transfers and unveiled other proposed reforms in early October. Initial uncertainty surrounding the new measures led to panic-buying of supplies, cash shortages and a subsequent clampdown on public protests. Following modifications, the new measures have been endorsed by local industry, the IMF and the World Bank -- but public mistrust lingers. Impacts Foreign currency shortages may worsen as exporters face rising costs without a market-based foreign exchange rate for converting earnings. The Reserve Bank will struggle to gain the trust of the public, government and investors amid recent corruption scandals. Wasteful spending, corruption and public-sector wages (which account for 90% of budget spending) will persist as major deficit drivers.


Subject Malaysia's 2019 budget. Significance Finance Minister Lim Guan Eng’s 314.5-billion-ringgit (75-billion-dollar) budget for 2019, tabled earlier this month, will likely be approved in parliament before year-end. The first budget under Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad anticipates a budget deficit of 3.4% of GDP. Shortly after coming to power this May, Mahathir said he would give way to Pakatan Harapan (PH) coalition partner Anwar Ibrahim within two years. Impacts The PH’s fiscal management will bolster confidence among foreign investors and credit ratings agencies. The lack of budget handouts to rural Malay constituencies could weaken political support for the PH in the short term. Government borrowing will likely become more expensive through 2019. The digital economy tax introduced in the budget will come into effect in 2020. Corruption investigations into missing revenues could result in further legal charges against members of the former government.


Significance The government is headed by Prime Minister Natalia Gavrilita, a leading PAS figure and former finance minister. This completes the creation of a strong functioning governance system under President Maia Sandu and her PAS allies. Impacts The budget deficit will encourage the government to accept conditions set by the IMF and EU. Unprecedented political synergies should foster swift, more cohesive reforms. A comprehensive campaign against corruption will be disruptive for the public sector. Finding competent, uncorrupt people to take senior positions and staff institutions will be a challenge.


Subject Parties' pre-election promises on the economy. Significance Opposition parties contesting the June 7 general election are seeking to benefit from the economy's weakness by bringing back the generous campaign pledges that were the stock-in-trade of leading politicians in the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s. For example, the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) is promising much larger benefits for pensioners, and a 50% increase in the minimum wage. It is also proposing tax-free fuel for farmers, ending sub-contracted labour in the public sector, additional job creation and social assistance schemes, and writing off 80% of credit card debt for the poorest consumers. Impacts Global conditions permitting, the election could contribute to a short-term recovery in consumer demand. Financial markets will pay closer attention to public finance indicators in the months ahead. In the event of a resolution or softening of Turkey's ideological divisions, the importance of electoral 'carrots' could increase.


Subject Slowing growth in Bolivia. Significance On July 15, Fitch Ratings upgraded Bolivia's debt a notch to BB from BB-, with a stable outlook. This follows Finance Minister Luis Arce's announcement last month that, despite lower export earnings, the economy would grow by 5% this year, with Bolivia leading the South American ranking for the second year in succession. However, his prediction seems over-optimistic, even though the Bolivian economy depends less on foreign investment inflows and short-term capital movements than many of its neighbours. Impacts A small economy, Bolivia is highly dependent on trade flows for growth. Domestic and external demand are inter-dependent; lower revenues will curb public spending. The size of the informal and illegal sectors distorts the picture provided by official statistics.


Subject Regional impact of South Africa's downgrades. Significance In April 2017, Standard & Poor's and later Fitch downgraded South Africa's sovereign credit rating to junk status. This has raised regional risks for members of the Southern African Customs Union (SACU), who rely on the union for government revenues. South Africa's ratings downgrades will reduce revenues for other members, who received 46.0 billion rand (3.56 billion dollars) of the 84.0-billion-rand revenue pool in 2015-16, and force cutbacks in government spending across the region. Impacts Botswana's government revenue will only be moderately constrained by the downgrades. Namibia will be resilient to reduced SACU revenue in the short term, supported by a loan from the African Development Bank. South Africa will struggle to reassure investors that a new finance minister does not signal a change in fiscal policy.


2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (2) ◽  
pp. 113-127 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ajay Chhibber ◽  
Swati Gupta

Purpose While national public policies such as performance contracts and disinvestment affect the dynamics of large- and medium-scale state-owned enterprises in emerging market economies, the purpose of this paper is to analyze the performance of India’s public sector undertakings (PSUs) and suggest options to improve their outcomes. Design/methodology/approach Using firm-level data on India’s 235 PSUs with total assets of around $500 billion over the past two and half decades (1990-2015), the study empirically tests the effect of performance contracts, measured by memorandum of understanding (MOU) and disinvestment, measured by private equity share, on PSUs performance indicator such as return on capital (ROC). Data were collected from the Public Enterprises Survey Reports released by the Department of Public Enterprises under India’s Ministry of Heavy Industries and Public Enterprises, Department of Disinvestment, Bombay Stock Exchange and Capitaline database. By controlling firm-, industry- and macro-level factors in regression models, the results were presented in several aspects like service sector, non-service sector and individual and joint effects. Findings Empirical estimations indicate that performance contracts such as MOUs have had a positive impact on PSU performance by increasing their ROC by 8-9 percent. This result holds more strongly for the non-service sector (manufacturing, mining) but less so for service sector firms. In the case of service sector firms, partial privatization (share sales) has a significant impact on performance, making them ideal candidates for more aggressive disinvestment. Larger PSUs (Maharatnas) appear to perform better than smaller PSUs and even better than private firms of similar size. Smaller PSUs (Navratnas and Miniratnas) perform worse than private companies and should be good candidates for strategic disinvestment (privatization). PSUs that do not have Ratna status – and are loss makers – should be disposed of their asset value. Practical implications The study recommends that India should change the public sector balance sheet by raising capital through strategic disinvestment (privatization), disinvestment and liquidation of PSUs and re-investing it, in public infrastructure through the National Infrastructure Investment Fund and not into the budget as a revenue-raising measure. It should also transform Maharatnas into world class companies with greater commercialization. Originality/value The paper makes significant contributions to the academic literature on the changing dynamics of state-owned enterprises in emerging economies by examining the effect of performance contracts and disinvestment on India’s PSUs performance. It is one of unique longitudinal-empirical studies on India’s PSU performance in several dimensions.


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