Prospects for India in 2019

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
General Election ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
Economic Risks

Subject Prospects for India in 2019. Significance Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) faces a tough challenge from the opposition in the general election likely in April or May. Whichever side wins will have to contend with rising economic risks and a complex geostrategic picture.

Modi will lose much rural support

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Rural Areas ◽  
Rural Population ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
General Election ◽  
State Governments ◽  
Agricultural Output ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
Education And Employment ◽  
Farm Debt

Significance As the 2019 general election approaches, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is trying to secure the backing of India’s rural population, which is some two-thirds of the country’s total. Modi has encouraged state governments to waive farm debt worth up to 2.8 trillion rupees (39 billion dollars); suggested a procurement formula guaranteeing farmers a return of at least 1.5 times their costs of production; and promised to double farm incomes by 2022. Meanwhile, landowning castes are increasingly demanding opportunities in education and employment away from rural areas. Impacts State governments will try to pay off farm debts by issuing bonds. In election campaigning, opposition parties will claim to champion rural interests. An average 2018 monsoon should boost agricultural output.

New political front to test Modi policy and politics

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
General Election ◽  
Land Acquisition ◽  
Political Opposition ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Regional Parties ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
The Way

Subject Outlook for the Janata Parivar. Significance In mid-April, six leading regional parties merged to form the 'Janata Parivar' (or People's Family, JP) to challenge Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government. The JP has been provoked, in part, by the way that the BJP is pushing reforms to land acquisition laws despite widespread opposition, and converting its 2014 general election triumph into many regional election victories. Impacts The JP will oppose subsidy cuts and the BJP's Hindu nationalist cultural agenda. The land acquisition amendment may be the most serious casualty of political opposition to Modi. Regional parties will attempt to balance market and welfare interests, highlighting (but not mitigating) rising inequality.

Modi’s party will take tougher line on immigration

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
General Election ◽  
Illegal Migration ◽  
National Register ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party

Subject NRC update in Assam. Significance Late last month, a draft update of the National Register of Citizens (NRC) in Assam state excluded around 4 million of nearly 32 million applicants as part of efforts to curb illegal migration. Many of the excluded are thought to be Bengali-speaking Muslims who migrated from Bangladesh after the start of the country’s liberation war in 1971. Assam is governed by the Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who will seek a second term in next year’s general election. Impacts India may seek to relocate its Muslim Rohingya refugees to the Bangladesh border, further straining relations with Dhaka. The government’s position on immigration is likely to draw criticism from human rights groups. Outbreaks of low-level Hindu-Muslim violence are likely across several states prior to the general election.

Southern Indian states will push back on Modi

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
General Election ◽  
Southern India ◽  
State Governments ◽  
Indian States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Southern States ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
Cooperative Federalism

Subject Controversy over the 15th Finance Commission. Significance Finance ministers of three southern states met last month to discuss grievances over the central government’s 15th Finance Commission, which defines revenue redistribution across the federal union. Prime Minister Narendra Modi champions the notion of ‘cooperative federalism’, with central and state governments to share responsibility for economic development. As the 2019 general election approaches, political opponents of Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) are contemplating the formation of a ‘Federal Front’. Impacts The BJP will step up efforts to undermine Karnataka’s new Janata Dal (Secular)-Congress ruling coalition. While Congress may join a Federal Front, other parties will resist its attempts to assert leadership of the alliance. Modi will prioritise personal campaigning in southern India ahead of the 2019 election, hoping to win over critics.

Spread of Modi’s BJP may play on civil violence

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Vice President ◽  
General Election ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
Civil Violence ◽  
Election Commission ◽  
Ruling Party

Subject Expansion of India's ruling party across the country. Significance Victories for candidates of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in recent elections for the president and the vice-president of India signal the consolidation of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s authority. Modi and party President Amit Shah aim not only to win the general election in 2019 but also to control as many states as possible and make the BJP the ‘party of the nation’. Impacts India’s Election Commission may have to investigate increasing claims of electoral impropriety. If Modi is re-elected, the BJP may attain a majority in the Rajya Sabha (upper house of parliament) in his second term. Shah's popularity will rise, though he is unlikely to want to succeed Modi in the long term.

India may increase federal financing for some states

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Regional Development ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
General Election ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Congress Party ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
New States ◽  
Special Category

Subject India's redistribution of federal resources. Significance At the general election likely in April or May, the nationally ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the main opposition Congress party will be seeking the support of state-based parties to bolster their alliances. Unequal patterns of regional development are prompting some states to seek a greater share of federal resources, but ‘special category status’ for disadvantaged states has effectively been abolished. Impacts Personal campaigning by Prime Minister Narendra Modi could improve the BJP’s chances of winning votes in states where it is unpopular. Congress will claim that Modi’s government has failed to deliver on economic development, hoping to increase its support. No post-election government will likely consider creating new states.

Prospects for India to end-2018

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
General Election ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party

Subject Prospects for India to end-2018. Significance Latest figures suggest India is once again one of the world's fastest-growing large economies, following a slowdown late last year. However, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will need to rebound from recent poll setbacks, with up to four state elections before end-2018 and the general election due next year.

Indian opposition parties will disrupt parliament more

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Supreme Court ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
General Election ◽  
Government Policies ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Chief Justice ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
The Supreme Court ◽  
Civil Violence ◽  
Opposition Parties

Subject Parliamentary disruptions and increasing riots in India. Significance Prime Minister Narendra Modi earlier this month led a public fast in protest at disruptions inside parliament, which cost the budget session nearly 250 hours in lost deliberations. While the Indian legislature’s role in holding the executive to account is curtailed, popular riots provide a means to challenge government policies. India’s general election is due in 2019, when Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will seek to retain power. Impacts Opposition parties’ attempts to have the Supreme Court chief justice impeached are unlikely to succeed. Spikes in civil violence are likely ahead of forthcoming state elections. The BJP and its allies may achieve a majority in the upper house after 2019, if Modi's party retains power.

Modi’s party depends heavily on his leadership

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
General Election ◽  
Indian Diaspora ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
Unwritten Rule

Significance Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is widely thought to have an unwritten rule that its leaders must retire from active politics at 75. The next general election is due in 2024, when the prime minister will turn 74. Impacts Pandemic-related restrictions will deprive Modi of the chance to use overseas trips to mobilise support from the Indian diaspora. Opposition criticism of the Modi government’s handling of the economy will cost the BJP support in some state elections. The prime minister will campaign personally in upcoming state polls in a bid to bolster his party’s chances.

Modi’s party will likely renew emphasis on caste

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Identity Politics ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
General Election ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Election Campaigns ◽  
Economic Management ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Congress Party ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
Opposition Parties

Subject India's ruling party's likely election strategy emphasising caste. Significance Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) was last week displaced from government in three of its heartland states by the main opposition Congress party, following elections. The poll results suggest a loss of support for the BJP among rural voters and Dalits (formerly regarded as ‘untouchables’). Ahead of the general election likely in April or May, party President Amit Shah is overseeing the BJP’s strategy. Impacts The BJP will highlight India’s robust quarterly GDP growth figures, claiming good economic management besides engaging in identity politics. Opposition parties could highlight the plight of Dalits working as manual scavengers as part of their election campaigns. Shah will likely be a future prime ministerial candidate for the BJP.

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