Zimbabwe's economic rebound faces multiple hurdles

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Debt Relief ◽  
Fiscal Consolidation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Run Up ◽  
Policy Targets

Subject Zimbabwe economic update. Significance Improving investor sentiment following new President Emmerson Mnangagwa’s initial reforms reflects pent-up foreign appetite for access to Zimbabwe’s vast mineral assets, amid improving global commodity prices. However, Western governments are unlikely to endorse the government’s policies until tangible progress emerges on outstanding human rights and governance concerns. Weak fiscal consolidation measures and over-optimism regarding policy targets are holdovers from former President Robert Mugabe's tenure that could weaken the credibility of longer-term reform plans, particularly when it comes to securing debt relief. Impacts The US extension of sanctions against Mnangagwa and his officials over governance issues is a blow to fledgling investor hopes. Inflationary pressures, after the long deflation, may further impinge on growth by dampening disposable incomes. Spending pressures in the run-up to elections could increase issuance of bond notes, which already exceed their 200,000-dollar limit by 45%.

US Fed will struggle to raise rates much in 2016

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Federal Funds ◽  
Federal Funds Rate ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Face ◽  
Lift Off ◽  
China’S Economy

Subject US monetary policy outlook for 2016 and its global impact. Significance There is a large discrepancy between the US Federal Reserve (Fed)'s estimates for interest rates at end-2016 and the expectations of bond investors. The latter are anticipating less tightening than the 100-basis-point (bp) rise in the Federal Funds rate the Fed has pencilled in for this year. Despite a successful rates 'lift-off' on December 16, the Fed faces many challenges in raising rates in the face of mounting stress in credit markets, disinflationary pressures from the plunge in commodity prices and a contraction manufacturing. Impacts While the Fed will tighten policy, other central banks, including the ECB, will provide further stimulus, accentuating policy divergence. Investors will price in a more hawkish Fed if US inflation accelerates faster than expected, potentially leading to a sell-off. Concerns about China's economy and the commodity prices slump will also shape investor sentiment.

Petrobras undermines Brazil's investment efforts

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
At Risk ◽  
Private Sector ◽  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Foreign Investors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Brics Countries ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World ◽  
The Government

Significance A lagging economy, declining global commodity prices and the crippling corruption crisis affecting state-owned oil giant Petrobras (estimated at 17 billion dollars in losses) have compelled the government to travel the world seeking investments. This combination has transformed what Brasilia had expected to be a revenue windfall into a shortfall, persuading the formerly inward-looking government to pursue external investment sources, including the US private sector and other BRICS countries. Impacts Brazil's current woes may represent an opportunity for foreign investors. However, the Petrobras scandal will continue to undermine investor sentiment. Current private forecasts point to recession both this year and next. Corruption claims could yet put the government at risk.

Ecuador prison crisis threatens to escalate

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
International Human Rights ◽  
Prison Violence ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
International Coordination ◽  
Drug Cartels ◽  
International Human ◽  
International Investors

Significance The attack, which involved drones, illustrates the evolving tactics of crime groups, and follows a string of violent, sometimes coordinated, incidents at prisons this year. These have resulted in the deaths of over 120 inmates. Prison violence comes alongside rising crime and growing concerns over the strengthening of transnational drug cartels. Impacts Lasso will face increasing pressure from international human rights groups to protect prisoners and improve prison conditions. Rising violence and crime will increase concerns among international investors about the security of investments and risks of extortion. Lasso might seek to exploit improved relations with the US and Colombian governments to strengthen international coordination.

Critical minerals demand will boost Canadian mining

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Supply Chain ◽  
Rare Earth ◽  
Electric Vehicle ◽  
Carbon Emissions ◽  
High Performance ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Alternative Source ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Critical Minerals

Significance Although low commodity prices deterred investment in recent years, this is changing as the market rallies. The creation of a regional electric vehicle (EV) supply chain straddling the Canada-US border has the potential to transform the Canadian mining sector while loosening China’s grip on the minerals used in high-performance batteries. Impacts Canada is the world’s eighth-largest cobalt producer and has significant copper, graphite and rare earth deposits. Fortune Minerals, which is developing a cobalt mine in Northwest Territories, has held funding talks with the US Export/Import Bank. First Cobalt is building North America’s only cobalt refinery to give battery makers an alternative source to the DRC. Several of the country’s mines are using cutting-edge technologies to reduce their carbon emissions.

Winter Olympic boycott increases corporate pressures

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Human Rights ◽  
Supply Chain ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Winter Olympics ◽  
The Us ◽  
Olympic Boycott

Significance The US-led diplomatic boycott of the Winter Olympics in February will increase the pressure on US companies to decide whether China or the United States is their more valuable market. Some of that pressure to decide is coming from employees and customers in both countries. Impacts More frequent and sharper confrontations between US companies and China could accelerate the decoupling of the two economies. Renewed emphasis on human rights concerns will encourage the further shifting of some supply chain elements out of China. Consumer brands are particularly vulnerable to human rights concerns, as are their suppliers.

Political pressure on Turkey's Central Bank will go on

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Sharp Decline ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Balance Sheets ◽  
The Past ◽  
Consumer Prices ◽  
Highly Sensitive ◽  
The Us ◽  
External Sources ◽  
Run Up

Significance The CBRT is expected to respond at its regular monthly interest rate-setting meeting to the fall in inflation in January to 7.2%. However, while the nearly 50% slide in oil prices since last June has led to a sharp decline in headline consumer prices, core inflation has been hovering near 9% for the last four months -- significantly above the CBRT's 5% inflation target. Just as importantly, Turkey's currency has fallen to a record low against the dollar, losing 7% over the past month because of the increasing politicisation of Turkish monetary policy and mounting expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will begin hiking interest rates as early as June, putting Turkish assets under renewed strain. Impacts CBRT independence is becoming one of the main focal points for market concern about emerging markets. Heavy reliance on external sources of finance will leave Turkey highly sensitive to resurgent dollar and increased US Treasury yields. Renewed lira weakness is likely to persist in the run-up to elections in June, which could also coincide with rising US interest rates. That would put further pressure on the balance sheets of Turkey's heavily indebted corporate sector.

Leading central banks mould investor sentiment

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Bank ◽  
Federal Reserve ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Euro Crisis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Country Specific

Significance In the worst start to a year for US equities since 2008, the benchmark S&P 500 index fell 0.7% during the week ending January 10. December's employment report showed US non-farm payrolls rising by a robust 252,000, but average hourly earnings declined, accentuating deflationary fears. The dollar continued to strengthen against the euro on concerns about a possible euro crisis over Greece and the introduction of sovereign QE by the ECB. With the US Federal Reserve preparing to raise rates, investor sentiment remains fragile. Impacts The tug-of-war between central bank largesse and country-specific, geopolitical and economic risks will become more intense. Markets will focus on renewed fears of 'Grexit' and on concerns about German opposition to an ECB sovereign QE programme. The relentless oil prices slide, exacerbated by the dollar's strength, will put further strain on EM assets. The ruble is likely to weaken further, increasing the scope for contagion to other developing economies.

Extractives transparency gathers pace in the West

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Balance Of Power ◽  
The United States ◽  
Securities And Exchange Commission ◽  
Good Time ◽  
Power Structures ◽  
Financial Transfers ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us

Subject Developments on transparency in the extractives sector. Significance Transparency legislation on the extractives sector progressed in December 2015 when the US Securities and Exchange Commission published a revised proposal to enhance the transparency of extractive (ie, mining and oil and gas) industries' payments to governments in producing countries. The aim is to provide information on financial transfers which can then be used by civil society, media and other stakeholders to hold those governments to account. The United States was a pioneer in this area, but litigation against its original initiative delayed its progress. Impacts Low commodity prices shift the balance of power from producing countries to consuming ones. That makes producer countries more susceptible to pressures for reform and may be a good time to push for greater transparency. However, opaque and inaccessible power structures in producer states could still limit NGO capacity to use more data to reduce corruption. A test of this will be whether the issue of resource transparency gains traction within the G20.

Prospects for emerging economies to end-2016

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Emerging Economies ◽  
Federal Reserve ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Risks ◽  
The Us ◽  
Growth Prospects

Subject Prospects for emerging economies to end-2016. Significance Despite political risks causing bouts of volatility in countries such as Brazil and Turkey, emerging market (EM) growth prospects have improved moderately and asset prices have rebounded after the turbulence of early 2016. More stability in exchange rates has helped, with the US Federal Reserve (Fed) holding off raising rates. The rebound in commodity prices has been supportive, too, together with receding concerns about China's slowdown. Some countries have also eased fiscal policy to reduce social tensions risks.

Prospects for the global economy in 2018

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Low Cost ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Balance Of Power ◽  
The United States ◽  
Industrial Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Open Markets

Subject PROSPECTS 2018: Global economy Significance Global GDP growth is likely to edge higher in 2018 as trade, investment and employment expand. However, monetary policy is gradually tightening, fiscal expansion is limited and there is little chance of a repeat of the surprise boost from trade seen in 2017 or a recovery in productivity. Inflation may remain obdurately low in the United States, Japan and the euro-area but not sufficiently to deter the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and the ECB from gently reeling in their bond-buying programmes. Modestly higher commodity prices should support economic recovery in resource producers. Impacts The timing of elections in the United States, Canada and Mexico may prolong the NAFTA trade talks into 2019 or beyond. China will battle any US attempts to constrain its innovation and access to technology, which it sees as key to its rebalancing. Technological progress and more open markets exacerbate the unpredictability of jobs and wages, but policy will increasingly address this. Automation means the job intensive low-cost industrial growth engine is now less effective; developing countries must consider new models. A better balance of power between multinationals, international organisations and governments will be key to global tax cooperation.

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