Iraqi oil output capacity could reach record levels

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Federal Government ◽  
Production Capacity ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Development Projects ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Field Development ◽  
Structural Problems ◽  
Oil Sector ◽  
Domestic Power ◽  
Gas Supply

Significance Some significant field development projects are moving ahead in 2018, especially in Kirkuk. There are further plans to award new exploration and development deals, as well as to develop additional pipeline capacity. Impacts Higher exports and a solid oil price will boost federal government revenues. The oil sector will face continued structural problems and political challenges, despite growth in capacity. Iraq’s rising production capacity will strain its already-weak adherence to the OPEC agreement. Gas supply boosts could free for export oil currently used for domestic power generation.

Nigeria's COVID-19 response at risk from weak links

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Federal Government ◽  
Succession Planning ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Weak Links ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Chief Of Staff ◽  
Government Capacity ◽  
Oil Sector ◽  
Ruling Party

Subject Nigeria's COVID-19 response. Significance The COVID-19 pandemic has hit Nigeria with a triple blow: the collapse of the oil price, on which just under half of government revenues rely; the domestic outbreak of COVID-19, which has immobilised the economy outside the oil sector; and a political hiatus exposing how federal government capacity has been hollowed out. Impacts The oil price crash will hasten a move away from reliance on the sector, but the initial adjustment will be painful. The death of Buhari’s influential chief of staff will complicate ruling party succession planning. Despite opportunities for abuses and graft during the lockdowns, the security forces' performance has been viewed as relatively effective.

Prices, politics slow Somalia's oil sector development

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Federal Government ◽  
Seismic Data ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Competitive Bidding ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Official Statement ◽  
Force Majeure ◽  
Border Dispute ◽  
Security Concerns ◽  
Oil Sector

Subject The outlook for the oil sector. Significance UK-based Soma Oil & Gas has completed seismic data for offshore Somalia and stands ready to apply for exploration rights, according to an official statement. The federal government in Mogadishu is keen to acquire more data and hold a competitive bidding round, but is struggling to complete its hydrocarbons framework. Industry optimism two years ago has dissipated: the low oil price compounds existing security concerns. The most active explorer, Horn Petroleum, has suspended activities after drilling two wells in Puntland. Majors are in no rush to reclaim Somali acreage in force majeure since 1991. Impacts The prospect of difficult negotiations with Mogadishu clouds the outlook for exploration in Somaliland, which has granted its own licences. Security concerns will prevent exploration by companies that have taken acreage in Somaliland, Puntland and elsewhere in Somalia. An unresolved maritime border dispute with Kenya compounds uncertainty for some of the more promising offshore fields in the south.

Pemex business plan draws scepticism in Mexico

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Federal Government ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Business Plan ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Public Finances ◽  
Rating Agencies ◽  
Insurmountable Obstacle ◽  
Oil Sector ◽  
The Government ◽  
Substantial Drop

Significance It has proven a disappointment, failing to explain how ambitious targets will be met, while confirming the reversal of the oil sector liberalisation enacted by the Pena Nieto administration, which had been showing some promising results. Impacts The government cannot mount a massive rescue of Pemex without endangering its own finances. Any substantial drop in global oil prices could present an insurmountable obstacle for Pemex, and a significant blow to public finances. A downgrade of Pemex’s debt could push rating agencies to do the same with the bonds of the federal government.

Commercial drilling for Somali oil is years away

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Federal Government ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Operating Environment ◽  
Maritime Piracy ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Energy Field ◽  
Southwest Coast ◽  
Track Record ◽  
Regional Authority ◽  
Oil Sector

Subject Somalia's oil sector. Significance Somalia plans to hold a licensing round for permits off its southwest coast this year; the blocks to be offered in 2017 are not yet delineated. While the acreage to be offered will likely prove uncontentious, the auction will highlight tensions and uncertainties as the federal government seeks to establish its federal and regional authority. Firms looking to enter the nascent sector may confront a difficult operating environment. Impacts Operating in Somalia will require managing high reputational and practical risks, including security. Maritime piracy has diminished, but oil developments could spur new forms of insecurity, including from al-Shabaab. Large-scale corruption could prove more damaging compared to other states given Somalia's minimal track record in the energy field.

Reforming Nigeria's oil sector will have mixed success

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Federal Government ◽  
World Bank ◽  
Development Bank ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Percentage Point Increase ◽  
The World Bank ◽  
Point Increase ◽  
The World ◽  
African Development Bank ◽  
Oil Sector

Significance Revelations by an investigative commission that the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) withheld 25 billion dollars from the federal government between 2011 and 2015 will add urgency to the proceedings. Impacts Concessional loans from the World Bank, African Development Bank and China Exim Bank may fund Nigeria's 'stimulus' budget. Low oil prices will constrain economic growth -- expected to be 4.6%, well below the 6.8% average during the decade ending 2014. The central bank's decision to raise its benchmark interest rate to 12% (a full percentage point increase) will dampen consumer demand.

Colombia's oil sector will weather price slump

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Extended Period ◽  
Oil Industry ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Infrastructure Investment ◽  
Success Story ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Crude Oil Production ◽  
Oil Sector

Subject The Colombian oil sector. Significance Colombia's oil industry has been a success story, with crude oil production running at close to 1 million barrels per day (b/d) and playing an important part in the country's economy. However, that very success and its positive economic impact is now creating real challenges for the country, following the precipitate fall in the global oil price. Impacts As the transition to peace reduces pipeline vulnerability, infrastructure investment may increase. Improved refining capacity will reduce Colombia's reliance on diesel and petrol imports, and may enable higher-value exports. An extended period of low oil prices could encourage more diversification and investment in other sectors.

Angolan oil sector reform will require innovation

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Structural Reforms ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Sector Reform ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Oil Sector ◽  
Oil Company

Subject Sonangol priorities. Significance Early structural reforms by new President Joao Lourenco and more positive economic projections for 2018 suggest a potential uptick in Angola’s fiscal fortunes. Since assuming power in September, Lourenco has overhauled the leadership of state-owned oil company Sonangol and dismissed several prominent officials associated with his predecessor Jose Eduardo dos Santos. Separately, Lourenco has moved to tackle the overvalued kwanza. While this will raise debt-servicing costs, this will be partly ameliorated by the recent oil price of over 60 dollars per barrel. Impacts Scrapping the dollar currency peg will help ease the foreign exchange crisis and end payment constraints in the aviation and oil sectors. A more realistic exchange rate will fuel inflation in the short term but will likely improve medium-term economic prospects. Urban support for the People's Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA) could decline further if reforms remain elite-focused.

Property bubble complicates Norway growth effort

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Emerging Market ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Local Elections ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Formidable Challenge ◽  
Investment Returns ◽  
Oil Sector ◽  
The Government ◽  
Oil Wealth ◽  
The Impact

Subject The impact of the low international oil price on the Norwegian economy. Significance The oil sector accounts for almost 30% of state revenues and almost 22% of GDP. The current low oil price level thus represents a formidable challenge. Growth is slowing and unemployment rising: on September 3, Statistics Norway cut its forecasts for 2015 and 2016 average GDP growth to 1.3% and 1.8%, respectively. However, Norway transformed its oil wealth into financial wealth when the oil price was high and now funds government spending from the investment returns: years of budget surpluses and a deep sovereign wealth fund (SWF) provide Norway with significant fiscal leeway. Impacts Independent forecasts suggest growth will be weaker than official projections, at 1.3-1.6% in 2016-17. Unemployment could rise above Statistics Norway's expected 2016 peak of 4.6%, likely to around 5.0%. The slowdown appears to be damaging the government and boosting the opposition Labour Party before September 14 local elections. Regions most exposed to the oil industry will be worst affected, especially around Stavanger. The SWF plans to raise its emerging market exposure, but Asian holdings are only around 15%, offering some protection from China turmoil.

Structural burdens will weigh on Ghana's energy sector

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Energy Sector ◽  
Domestic Demand ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Power Project ◽  
Budget Shortfalls ◽  
Gas Supply ◽  
Internal Debt

Subject Ghanaian oil and gas prospects Significance On May 20, Italy's Eni announced the start of oil production from the Sankofa development, to be followed by gas in 2018. The Ghanaian government also plans to increase gas imports, but this is only part of the solution to a complex set of energy sector problems. President Nana Akufo-Addo's new administration faces significant challenges clearing internal debt and meeting domestic demand while also dealing with larger-than-expected budget shortfalls. Impacts The government will prioritise the large number of power project agreements signed by its predecessor. Further exploration in Ghana and Ivory Coast’s deep water will depend largely on the oil price. More domestic gas supply could help bring down Ghana’s high electricity tariffs.

Improving Nigerian oil fortunes is crucial to rebound

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Federal Government ◽  
Niger Delta ◽  
Fourth Quarter ◽  
Fiscal Crisis ◽  
National Bureau ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Oil Sector

Subject Nigeria oil outlook.. Significance Growth in the first quarter of 2019 slowed to 2.1% of GDP, down from 2.38% in the fourth quarter of 2018, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) last month. This slowdown was in large part due to contraction in the oil sector of 2.4%, even though production was higher than the preceding quarter. As the federal government struggles to overcome its fiscal crisis, the oil sector’s fortunes are crucial to short-to-medium term recovery. Impacts As its revenue challenges mount, the presidency will likely grow increasingly interventionist in the oil sector, deterring investors. Presidency plans to restart contested production in Ogoniland presents long-term risks amid local tensions and environmentalist opposition. While oil theft is receiving more attention, attempts to curb it may affect fragile Niger Delta peace dynamics.

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