US tax bill impact depends on how savings are invested
Subject Business impact of US tax reform. Significance The reforms, which lower tax rates for most US businesses and fundamentally change the tax treatment of US affiliates operating abroad, are the most extensive revision of the US tax system in more than 30 years. According to the White House and Republican legislators, the reforms incentivise capital investment, discourage the offshoring of business investment and earnings and encourage businesses to locate and grow their operations in the United States. Impacts The average effective tax rate on US business drops from 21% to 9% but rises again to 19% by 2027 if temporary provisions are not renewed. US operating firms will save over 1 trillion dollars over ten years, but US multinationals' costs abroad will rise by 0.6 trillion dollars. Estimates of the US GDP impact range from 0.7-2.9% over baseline forecasts in the next ten years, depending on how the savings are invested. Market conditions will determine the asset mix into which businesses invest the savings; best case scenarios will raise productivity. The tax law will increase the budget deficit and borrowing, reducing financial stability and scope to loosen policy.