Brexit will challenge UK civil service

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Civil Service ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Complex Process ◽  
Trade Deals ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Eu

Subject The impact of Brexit on the civil service. Significance With the formal second reading of the EU Withdrawal Bill in parliament today, UK MPs will start to debate the legislation rescinding the United Kingdom's membership of the EU. London's reluctance to clarify its negotiating position during the Brexit talks with Brussels has led to accusations that the United Kingdom is unprepared for such a complex process, not only politically but administratively, too. Impacts A lack of experienced trade negotiators will hamper the United Kingdom’s ability to conclude trade deals after it has left the EU. Stricter immigration rules for EU nationals would increase the workload of the civil service further. The United Kingdom’s perceived unpreparedness could lower EU trust and confidence.

UK-EU trade negotiations to be contentious

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Free Trade Area ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Trade Area ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Beneficial Impact ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Trade Deals ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Eu

Subject Outlook for UK-EU trade deals. Significance Following the 'Brexit' referendum, a statement from EU Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmstrom that the United Kingdom must negotiate its EU exit before concluding a trade deal alters assessments of future trading conditions across the English Channel. Even if the United Kingdom were to retain access to the single market or negotiate a free trade area with the EU, UK-EU trade is likely to be governed solely by WTO rules for many years. Impacts Given the UK government's lack of trade negotiators, the private sector could shape the country's negotiating positions. For UK exporters with domestic suppliers, the impact of tariffs on EU shipments will be mitigated by the pound's depreciation. However, the beneficial impact of the latter is reduced for UK exporters that source from abroad.

EU to United Kingdom moves will fall under any Brexit

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Immigration Policy ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Real Wages ◽  
Reduced Pressure ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Freedom Of Movement ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Eu

Subject UK immigration outlook. Significance Under most Brexit scenarios, freedom of movement between the United Kingdom and the EU-27 will end in December 2020. This will require the United Kingdom radically to reform its immigration policy, both towards EU citizens and, to a lesser extent, non-EU citizens. Impacts Immigration reductions will have a small negative impact on UK public finances, even considering the reduced pressure on public services. There will be some increase in non-EU migration, especially of relatively well-paid workers. There may be some upward pressure on wages in specific sectors, although the overall impact on real wages is likely to be small. A change of prime minister may reduce immigration policy restrictiveness, mitigating the impact without altering the direction of travel.

Prospects for a close EU-UK trade deal are not good

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Financial Services ◽  
Transition Period ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Uk Government ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Limited Period ◽  
The Eu

Subject UK-EU trade talks. Significance The United Kingdom will leave the EU on January 31, 2020, but will abide by EU rules as part of the transition period, which runs to December 31, 2020. During this limited period of time, London and Brussels will seek to negotiate a permanent trading relationship. While the transition deadline can be extended, the UK government has committed not to seek an extension. Impacts The impact of no trade deal or a 'thin' one may force the UK government to increase taxes in order to meet spending pledges. UK financial services will rely on an equivalence deal with the EU; London hopes to agree this by mid-2020. The EU’s future trade policy will focus on having stronger sanction powers as well as legal ones for those that unfairly undercut EU firms.

Brexit will be damaging for UK-EU services trade

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Free Trade ◽  
Free Trade Agreements ◽  
Trade Agreements ◽  
Services Trade ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Cross Border ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Trade Deals ◽  
The Eu

Significance Even if it succeeds, this will have a greater disruptive impact on the trade in services than goods, because the EU’s single market enables greater cross-border services trade than is typical of other free trade agreements (FTAs). This is likely to cut the volume of EU-UK services trade, in which the United Kingdom currently enjoys a substantial surplus. Impacts The United Kingdom’s departure from the EU will diminish its appeal for multinationals over the next few years, at least. The new UK immigration system could result in staff shortages in low-skilled services sectors. The imperative of tackling COVID-19 will likely delay the conclusion of new trade deals with non-EU countries.

Brexit will have mixed impact on the Caribbean

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Export Market ◽  
Regional Economies ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Decision To Leave ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The Caribbean ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Eu

Subject The impact of Brexit on the English-speaking Caribbean. Significance The Caribbean is a region with strong links to the United Kingdom that will be affected significantly by the UK voters' decision to leave the EU ('Brexit'). The region includes sovereign and non-sovereign countries and both groups will be affected, albeit in different ways. Impacts Caribbean concerns will not be a priority for either the United Kingdom or the EU. Uncertainty may further undermine already weak regional economies. CARICOM will need a new trade accord with the United Kingdom, its main export market.

UK Brexit is likely to worsen inequality

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Health Outcomes ◽  
Economic Impacts ◽  
Close Association ◽  
Local Economies ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Trade Deals ◽  
The Eu

Significance The consensus among most economists is that whatever the eventual deal, the United Kingdom will be worse off in the long run as a result of leaving the EU. However, the economic impacts will be far from uniform across the country. Impacts The Labour Party is in a better position than the Conservatives to benefit from the increased salience of distributional issues. The automotive, chemicals and pharmaceuticals sectors and the local economies they support are disproportionately exposed. Opposition to trade deals could rise as workers may fear that a flood of cheap imports could threaten their jobs. There is a close association between health and wealth, so poorer areas falling further behind could mean worse health outcomes.

Northern EU countries may lose influence post-Brexit

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Eu Countries ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Northern European ◽  
Inner Circle ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Eu

Subject The impact of Brexit on northern European countries. Significance The United Kingdom's vote to leave the EU presents a particular challenge to northern EU countries -- some of which are, like the United Kingdom, not members of the euro-area -- as they will lose a powerful ally for a more competitive, fiscally disciplined and globally oriented EU. Impacts Brexit could accelerate a closer economic, financial and fiscal integration of the euro-area, which many non-euro-area capitals oppose. Brexit could widen the gap between an 'inner circle' of euro-area members and a periphery of non-euro ones. The loss of UK contributions to the EU budget means that the burden shouldered by northern EU countries, all net contributors, will rise.

EU wants a post-Brexit level playing field

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Level Playing Field ◽  
Environmental Standards ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Playing Field ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Food Standards ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Trade Deals ◽  
The Eu

Subject Level playing field after Brexit. Significance Unless the United Kingdom remains a member of the single market, it will no longer automatically be subject to EU rules after Brexit. This has raised concerns in the EU that the United Kingdom could gain a competitive advantage by moving towards a ‘low tax, low regulation’ economic model, which could undermine the competitiveness of the EU and trigger a regulatory race to the bottom. Impacts Lower UK environmental standards could impose direct costs on EU consumers, for example through cross-border air pollution. London may be tempted to accept lower food standards in securing more favourable trade deals with non-EU countries. A no-deal Brexit would put the UK government under greater pressure to adopt a tougher stand vis-a-vis the EU and deregulate.

Estonia affair will tighten checks on money laundering

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Money Laundering ◽  
Financial Supervision ◽  
Criminal Investigation ◽  
Market Segments ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Illicit Flows ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Eu

Subject The impact of the recent money laundering scandal. Significance Danske Bank has lost 28,000 private customers in Denmark between January and June 2018, Reuters reported on August 14. The unfolding money-laundering scandal at Danske Bank’s Estonian branch has sparked a criminal investigation and put the failings of financial supervision under the spotlight in both Estonia and Denmark. Danske Bank, Denmark’s largest lender, has shut down its Estonian operations. The process will be costly for Danske Bank in terms of both money and reputation. It also serves to draw further attention to illicit flows from former Soviet states to the EU. Many countries, including the United Kingdom, have already tightened their legislation accordingly. Impacts The bank will find it more difficult to expand its operations outside its traditional geographical territories. Tighter EU regulations against money-laundering will increase banks’ compliance costs. Some market segments, such as non-resident operations, may become just too costly to service.

Norway's government will seek to avoid EU debate

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Revolving Door ◽  
European Economic Area ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Eu Membership ◽  
Close Relationship ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Near Future ◽  
The Eu

Subject The impact of Brexit on Norway. Significance Given Norway's close relationship with both the United Kingdom and the EU, the details of any Brexit arrangement could have significant ramifications for the country. Although major changes to its European Economic Area (EEA) agreement with the EU are unlikely, the Norwegian government has adopted a cautious position, for fear of alienating the EU and fuelling growing Eurosceptic sentiment. Impacts The electorate may remain indifferent to the likelihood of Norway being locked out of Europe and its costs. Another referendum on Norway's EU membership or its EEA agreement is unlikely in the near future. Oslo could play an important informal role in the upcoming Brexit negotiations by functioning as a revolving door for EU and UK delegations. Both the United Kingdom and Norway have an incentive to maintain their open trading relationship.

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