UMNO rural vote likely to survive in Malaysia

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Corporate Governance ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Land Development ◽  
General Election ◽  
Court Cases ◽  
Political Pressure ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Third ◽  
Federal Land ◽  
National Organisation

Subject Rural constituencies and Malaysia's forthcoming general election. Significance The inquiries into Malaysia’s Felda Global Ventures Holdings (FGV), the third-largest palm oil plantation conglomerate globally, continue. On June 19, the office of Prime Minister Najib Razak in a statement encouraged FGV’s investigation of allegations of mismanagement and encouraged the firm to improve its corporate governance, while cautioning that those accused were innocent unless formally proven guilty. Federal Land Development Authority (FELDA) settlers are a key constituency for Najib, and alleged mismanagement at FGV could threaten support for his United Malays National Organisation (UMNO) in the next general election. Impacts Popular and political pressure for effective corporate governance may grow in Malaysia. New electoral boundaries are likely to be voted through by parliament by August. Further court cases against the Election Commission’s constituency boundary re-delineation are likely.

Thailand’s junta will deepen ties with king

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Corporate Governance ◽  
Commercial Bank ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
General Election ◽  
National Council ◽  
Transfer System ◽  
Direct Control ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Activities ◽  
The Military

Subject Relations between Thailand's military and monarchy. Significance The military-led National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) earlier this month dismissed speculation that the long-awaited general election would be delayed beyond February next year. In June, Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha hinted that King Maha Vajiralongkorn’s coronation must take place before the poll. Since his enthronement in December 2016, King Vajiralongkorn has focused on strengthening his control over royal institutions. Impacts The king’s direct control of the palace’s shares in Siam Commercial Bank and Siam Cement Group will not affect corporate governance. Lese-majeste cases will continue even if the palace attempts to reduce enforcement. Prayut’s use of the promotion and transfer system will continue to limit factional tensions within the military. Any future removal of the military-imposed ban on political activities will be met with an increased security presence.

Malaysia will likely have a general election in 2022

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Vice President ◽  
General Election ◽  
State Governments ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Profile ◽  
Step Down ◽  
National Organisation

Significance The United Malays National Organisation (UMNO), surprisingly defeated by the PH in the 2018 general election, returned to government in March 2020 and regained the premiership in August this year through party Vice-President Ismail Sabri Yaakob. The next parliamentary polls are due in 2023. Impacts PH Chairman Anwar Ibrahim will come under growing pressure to step down as leader of the opposition. High-profile corruption proceedings against senior UMNO figures, including former Prime Minister Najib Razak, will be a drag on the party. Eastern Malaysian state governments will have greater influence over the oil and gas sectors.

Next Malaysian election likely to see BN win

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
General Election ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Structural Problems ◽  
Chief Minister ◽  
National Organisation

Significance This follows former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad launching the Malaysian United Native Party (Bersatu) on January 15. As a member of the primary opposition coalition, Pakatan Harapan (PH), Bersatu could challenge the governing coalition led by the United Malays National Organisation (UMNO) for the important Malay-Muslim vote, UMNO's political base. Both developments come as speculation grows that Prime Minister Najib Razak will call an early general election. Impacts Early polls may boost domestic stocks, particularly in construction, but will not stabilise the ringgit. Sarawak Chief Minister Adenan Satem's recent death could bolster the Sarawak autonomy movement. Legal amendments to enact Islamic criminal punishments are unlikely to be voted on pre-election. An Anwar pardon is unlikely; if it happened pre-election the opposition could benefit but still face structural problems. Opposition legal efforts to block the Electoral Commission's constituency re-delineation will likely fail.

Malaysia’s ruling coalition will face poll fight

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Industrial Policy ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
General Election ◽  
Prominent Feature ◽  
Content Type ◽  
One Year ◽  
National Organisation

Subject Malaysian opposition's election strategy. Significance Malaysian prison authorities last week prevented a meeting between jailed People’s Justice Party (PKR) leader Anwar Ibrahim and former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad of the Malaysian United Indigenous Party (PPBM). The opposition Pakatan Harapan (PH) coalition on January 7 announced Mahathir as its candidate for the general election, with the proviso that he gives way to Anwar within one year of a poll win. The election must take place by August, but Prime Minister Najib Razak of the United Malays National Organisation (UMNO)-led Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition is yet to announce the date. Impacts The re-delineation of electoral boundaries is likely to favour the incumbent government. Religion is likely to be a prominent feature of election campaigning. A Mahathir premiership following the poll would likely leave Malaysia’s fiscal and industrial policy unchanged.

scholarly journals Malaysia's 14th General Election (GE14) -The Contest for the Malay Electorate

2018 ◽  
Vol 37 (3) ◽  
pp. 57-83 ◽  
Author(s):  
John Funston
Keyword(s):  
Civil Society ◽  
Digital Media ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Economic Reforms ◽  
General Election ◽  
Government Institutions ◽  
Deputy Prime Minister ◽  
National Organisation

The United Malays National Organisation (UMNO) and its allies in the Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition, known as the Alliance until 1974, dominated Malaysian elections for more than six decades. UMNO's winning formula was based on massive support for the politically dominant Malay community, and mobilising government institutions in support of the party. This was undermined towards the end of the 1990s by UMNO disunity, a strengthened civil society, and arrival of a digital media. Demands for comprehensive political and economic reforms ( reformasi) emerged following the controversial sacking of Deputy Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim in 1998. UMNO had its worst result ever in the 1999 election, a trend that continued in 2008 and 2013 when BN lost its popular and two-thirds majority. Najib's attempt to reverse this by strengthening the call for Malay dominance and tightening coercion failed. His deep implication in multiple corruption cases, tactical campaign errors, and a united opposition, Pakatan Harapan, led to the BN's stunning defeat.

UK election could force fresh poll by 2017

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
General Election ◽  
Third Party ◽  
National Party ◽  
House Of Commons ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Third ◽  
Liberal Democrats ◽  
Scottish National Party ◽  
The Third Party ◽  
Opinion Polls

Subject Fresh election scenarios. Significance Opinion polls suggest that no single party will win an overall majority in the House of Commons on May 7. They also imply that the Scottish National Party (SNP) will do extremely well, substantially increasing its representation from its current six seats to around 25-45 seats. Furthermore, polls also indicate that the third party in terms of current parliamentary representation -- the Liberal Democrats, junior partners in the governing coalition -- may struggle to retain that status and could fall as low as 15-25 seats. If that occurred, the formation of a new coalition arrangement led either by the Conservatives or Labour would be much more complicated than in May 2010, when the election ended without an overall majority. This has led to speculation that another general election could follow relatively swiftly after May -- even within this calendar year. Impacts The May 2015 election may well not produce a result that can last for a five-year term. The Fixed Term Parliament Act 2011 makes the swift dissolution of parliament for a fresh election more challenging. Still, there is a scenario in which another contest could occur in 2015. However, a fresh election in 2016-17 is more likely than one held a few months later.

Malaysia's Najib will be stronger in 2016

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Party Leader ◽  
Investment Fund ◽  
Political Contributions ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Pressure ◽  
The Face ◽  
State Investment ◽  
The Government ◽  
National Organisation

Subject Political outlook for Malaysia's prime minister. Significance This year's United Malays National Organisation (UMNO) general assembly, which concluded on December 12, emphasised unity in the face of some party fragmentation. Party leader and Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak used the meeting again to reject criticisms surrounding his government over the 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB) state investment fund and political contributions. Despite infighting, the party assembly and some recent parliamentary victories imply Najib is consolidating his political position. Impacts Some UMNO critics of Najib may defect, but with a weak opposition coalition, defectors' influence would be limited. New security council legislation will alienate parts of Malaysian civil society. The government will face international pressure not to 'abuse' this legislation.

Political pressure mounts on Japanese media

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Freedom Of Expression ◽  
Press Freedom ◽  
Political Pressure ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Media ◽  
The Public ◽  
The Media ◽  
Near Term ◽  
The Government

Significance The issue of media independence has become a fraught one under Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's administration, with perceptions rising among journalists and the public that the government is subjecting the media to political pressure. Critics of the administration speak of censorship and threats to freedom of expression. Japan's ranking in the World Press Freedom Index has fallen from 22nd in 2011-12, before Abe took office, to 61st in 2015. Impacts The government seems likely to try to marginalise the criticisms of constitutional scholars, like it marginalises its other critics. International media as well as domestic journalists are likely to feel some pressure from the authorities. In the near term, the issue is unlikely to destabilise the government, or derail passage of security legislation.

Malaysia's Najib faces continuing challenge from 1MDB

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil Society ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The Political ◽  
Investment Fund ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
National Investment ◽  
National Organisation

Subject Malaysia's political outlook following the Bersih 4 protests. Significance Former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad is to be officially questioned about his presence at the 'Bersih 4' mass protests organised by the Coalition for Clean and Fair Elections (Bersih) on August 29 and 30, local press reports said today. By allowing the rallies to proceed peacefully, Prime Minister Najib Razak had sought to extend the political respite brought by his July 28 cabinet reshuffle. His position nationally and within the governing United Malays National Organisation (UMNO) is under threat amid political difficulties relating to the 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB) national investment fund. Impacts The Malaysian parliamentary opposition's weakness means civil society will provide most opposition to the government for now. The Bersih movement's mostly urban support limits its challenge to the government, which enjoys strong rural support. Public doubts about the effectiveness of Malaysian anti-corruption frameworks will stunt their development.

Catalonia's regional election will be a close race

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
General Election ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Regional Autonomy ◽  
Constitutional Government ◽  
Business Confidence ◽  
Balance Of Forces

Significance Two pro-independence forces and the unionist Citizens party lead the field. Whether the election will break the impasse over independence and return regional autonomy to Catalonia will depend on a complex balance of forces within the Catalan parliament and on Madrid’s response to the result. Impacts For Spain's prime minister, the elections are an attempt to restore constitutional government in Catalonia. An end to rule by a pro-independence coalition would strengthen business confidence in the Catalan and Spanish economies. The predicted improvement in the PSC-PSOE’s standing would enhance the prospects of the Socialists in the next Spanish general election.

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