Azerbaijan faces hard search for new growth drivers

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
National Currency ◽  
Fiscal Consolidation ◽  
Currency Devaluation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government

Significance The government wants to develop non-hydrocarbon sectors to offset the growth and fiscal problems stemming from lower global oil prices. The economy contracted in 2016 for a second consecutive year. Fiscal consolidation and currency devaluation have added to contractionary effects. Impacts Efforts to clean up the banking sector will absorb fiscal resources. Confidence in the national currency remains fragile. High levels of dollarisation complicate the execution of monetary policy.

Mexican fiscal consolidation steady despite oil price

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Fiscal Consolidation ◽  
Significant Drop ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government

Subject The outlook for fiscal consolidation. Significance The significant drop in oil prices should not derail the fiscal consolidation trajectory mapped by President Enrique Pena Nieto's administration, which envisages that the debt/GDP ratio should stabilise by 2017. The fiscal hole opened by reduced oil prices has been compensated with greater taxation income and one-off revenues. Impacts Defying expectations, the oil price plunge did not push the government into an overtly contractionary fiscal correction. An arguably much-needed simplification of the cumbersome taxation regime will not take place due to the government's pledge not to alter it. Loose monetary policy from the autonomous central bank has worked in tandem with the government's fiscal stance.

Russia spillover, low oil price will challenge Astana

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
National Currency ◽  
Public Confidence ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Slowing Down ◽  
Ukrainian Crisis ◽  
Domestic Products ◽  
Global Growth

Significance The slowing down of Kazakhstan's economy continues against a background of slow global growth, the turbulent economic situation in Russia and low oil prices. Lower-than-projected oil prices will reduce budget revenues and forecasts; on January 16, Astana said it was revising its budgets for 2015-17 to mirror an average oil price of 50 dollars/barrel, as current budgets were based on 80 dollars/barrel. The blow will be softened by substantial reserves, which are expected to be used to stimulate the economy. Dwindling demand for commodities will negatively affect the profitability of Kazakhstan's major producers. The cumulative spillover from the Russian-Ukrainian crisis is substantial, although manageable at present. Impacts Further devaluation of the tenge would undermine public confidence in Kazakhstan's national currency. Increased dollarisation of Kazakhstan's economy will make regulation difficult by monetary policy. Ruble depreciation will put pressure on the tenge and promote replacement of domestic products with Russian imports.

Azerbaijan policies may lack agility needed for crises

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Banking Sector ◽  
Foreign Currency ◽  
Shadow Economy ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
National Currency ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Welfare Spending ◽  
Political Responses ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Cost

Subject Oil and COVID-19 shocks in Azerbaijan. Significance The COVID-19 pandemic and oil price collapse present a dual challenge to the government, whose economic or political responses are likely to mirror its behaviour in past crises. Despite reasonable fiscal strength, there are policy risks in areas such as defending the national currency at the cost of depleting foreign currency reserves. Impacts Demands for healthcare and welfare spending will rise, as will unemployment. The banking sector looks vulnerable: four major banks are already in temporary administration. The size of the shadow economy makes it difficult to assess numbers of lay-offs and the resulting demand for welfare assistance.

Oil prices will increase Ecuador's fiscal pressures

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Full Control ◽  
Public Resources ◽  
Oil Sector ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Impact Of Falling

Significance The collapse of world oil prices has brought fiscal policy sharply into focus in Ecuador. At a time when the budget deficit is widening and the opposition is strengthening, the government faces the prospect of receiving significantly less income from the oil sector than anticipated. The fallout from the plunge of oil prices coincides with the beginning of the constitutional debate that could allow the re-election of President Rafael Correa in 2017. Impacts The government will intensify efforts to raise oil output in a bid to ease the impact of falling oil prices. Conflicts between central and local government will probably increase as public resources become scarcer. If oil prices remain low, the appeal of exiting dollarisation and establishing full control over monetary policy will rise.

Cheap oil will test Nigerian banks' resilience

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Bank Lending ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
Content Type

Significance The first policy loosening in more than six years highlights government concerns about the challenging outlook for bank lending. The plunge in global oil prices and sharp depreciation of the naira are severely testing the resilience of the recently reformed banking sector. Impacts The rate cut reveals that the government's priority is to boost the lending environment over using tighter monetary policy as a stabiliser. However, the effect of the stimulus on inflation and growth will only become apparent next year. Balance-of-payments crisis warnings do not take into account fairly sound debt ratios and reserve levels.

Russia faces twin hits from COVID-19 and cheap oil

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Banking Sector ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Regulatory Changes ◽  
Rapid Spread ◽  
Additional Funding ◽  
Capital Outflows ◽  
The Rich ◽  
The Government ◽  
To Receive

Significance The steep fall in global oil prices and rapid spread of COVID-19 have ended hopes of economic revival in 2020. The government has allocated 300 billion rubles (4 billion dollars) for immediate use, and Putin has announced hefty taxes on the rich to boost revenues. The Central Bank of Russia (CBR) has no plans for monetary expansion but will provide additional liquidity to the banking sector and relax regulations to encourage credit for badly hit industries. Impacts A temporary hike in inflation is expected due to ruble devaluation and possible price hikes on some products. The government will make regulatory changes to ensure food supplies. The deteriorating economic situation is likely to spur higher capital outflows. Poorer regions are likely to receive additional funding from Moscow.

Future Azerbaijani growth will be lower than before

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Social Support ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Remedial Action ◽  
Economic Diversification ◽  
Currency Devaluation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Business Interests ◽  
Social Provision ◽  
The Government

Subject Azerbaijan's January-June contraction. Significance Azerbaijan's economy contracted in the first half of 2016 owing to the effects of low oil prices and currency devaluation. Banking assets have been damaged by the manat's weakened exchange rate, and the authorities have taken remedial action including the creation of a new financial regulator. Government efforts to raise budget revenues and cut spending are constrained by the desire to build hydrocarbon export facilities and maintain social provision. Impacts The government will ring-fence social support spending to ward off protests. A serious focus on economic diversification is likely to clash with vested political and business interests. Azerbaijan is hoping to become a trade transit hub for Russia and Iran, despite difficult past relations with both.

Azerbaijan must adjust to less oil at lower prices

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Banking Sector ◽  
Public Spending ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Economic Stress ◽  
External Current ◽  
Economic Diversification ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Vested Interests ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

Subject Negative trends in Azerbaijan's economy. Significance Azerbaijan's economy is contracting under the impact of low oil prices, weaker purchasing power and reduced public spending. The external current account and fiscal balances are deteriorating. Two devaluations last year could help stabilise the manat, but have created more economic stress in the interim and exposed the fragility of the banking sector. Financial reserves, including the state oil fund, are large in relation to the size of the economy but are shrinking rapidly. Impacts Months of recession will generate anger and potentially anti-government protests. The government may be tempted to use military action against Karabakh to distract attention from domestic problems. However, sustained low oil prices will reduce previously lavish spending on defence. Moves towards economic diversification and privatisation will be resisted by elite groups with vested interests.

Bank lending channel and banking sector efficiency: panel data of Egypt

2018 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 1291-1310 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohamed Aseel Shokr ◽  
Anwar Al-Gasaymeh
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Panel Data ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Generalized Method Of Moments ◽  
Bank Lending ◽  
Bank Loan ◽  
Bank Lending Channel ◽  
Bank Efficiency ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Lending Channel

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the relevance of the bank lending channel (BLC) of monetary policy and the bank efficiency in Egypt. Design/methodology/approach This paper examines the effectiveness of bank lending channel using generalized method of moments GMM model during the period from 1996 to 2014. Also, it uses stochastic frontier approach (SFA) to examine the bank efficiency in Egypt. Findings This study supports the relevance of the BLC using panel data. Moreover, applying SFA, this paper computes cost efficiency taking account of both time and country effects directly. The finding suggests that banks with low inflation and high GDP tend to perform more efficiently. Research limitations/implications The limitation of the study is examining one country only. Practical implications The finding signals that the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) should adjust interest rate in order to stabilize the bank loan supply. Social implications It is important for the CBE and Egyptian banks because it highlights the importance of BLC. Originality/value It examines one channel of monetary policy and bank efficiency in Egypt.

scholarly journals DEFIBRILLATORS OF EXPECTED MINES IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE BANKING SYSTEM OF UKRAINE: LESSONS OF THE CRISIS

2019 ◽  
pp. 26-36
Author(s):  
Bohdan LUTSIV
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Internal State ◽  
Substantial Reduction ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Significant Deterioration ◽  
Policy Paradigm ◽  
Loan Portfolios ◽  
National Bank ◽  
The Government

Introduction. The effective functioning of the banking system determines the stability of the monetary market in the country. Stability and transparency of functioning and effective management are a guarantee of growth of deposits and attractiveness for investors. However, in recent years, the Ukrainian banking system is in a state of recession and does not fulfil the functions assigned to it. This led to the need for a so-called “purge” of the banking system and led to significant losses for both banks and for all the country’s economists. The instability that resulted from the crisis has caused even more distrust from people to banks. The main problems of the banking system of Ukraine in recent years is the curtailment of lending, a significant deterioration in the quality of loan portfolios, the reduction of its own capital and loss-making activity. Purpose. There is an analysis of the current post-crisis situation and expectations of changes in the development of the banking system of Ukraine in accordance with the new monetary policy paradigm. Results. The last economic crisis (2014–2015) is not generated by the banking system itself, but rather by economical quality. The policy of the Government and the monetary policy of the National Bank of Ukraine. Ukrainian banks are heavy and burdened with a large share of unprofitable loans, and the banking system itself is highly concentrated but not sufficiently consolidated. At the beginning of the crisis, the state of the banking sector was characterized by fictitious capitalization of banks, the involvement of the business of its shareholders, the with drawal of regulator refinancing, huge volumes of “garbage” securities in bank portfolios, etc. The National Bank of Ukraine has resorted to a “purge” of the banking system, in which the subjectivity and opacity appeared. The whole burden of reimbursing the costs associated with the withdrawal from the market of bankrupt banks took upon itself the fund for guaranteeing deposits of individuals. The influence of state banks on the general state of banking sector reform and ways to improve corporate governance in state banks is shown. The so-called defibrillators of changes which are expected in the near future in development of the banking system of Ukraine are defined. Conclusions. At present, the banking system of Ukraine demonstrates the following key trends: the end of the “bankruptcy” period; the problem of improvement of loan portfolios and optimization of operations with the bonds of an internal state loan is acute; the need for a substantial reduction of state participation in the banking system.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document