Costa Rica could become key US ally in region

Subject Costa Rica-US relations. Significance Between March 13-17, President Luis Guillermo Solis undertook a five-day visit to Washington and New York, in an effort to bolster Costa Rica’s position as a US ally in Latin America. While San Jose benefits greatly from its relationship with the United States, however, closeness to the administration of US President Donald Trump will bring with it added risks, both domestically and in terms of its international relations. Impacts Trump’s protectionist stance may dissuade US foreign direct investment in Costa Rica, at least temporarily. Given Costa Rica’s large Nicaraguan population, strained relations between San Jose and Managua could raise domestic social tensions. Association with Trump will give opposition parties ammunition against the government during 2018 election campaigning.

Subject Spanish foreign policy. Significance Spain does not see itself replacing the United Kingdom as one of the ‘Big 3’ in driving EU policymaking and cooperation after Brexit. Instead, the government of Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez will seek to prioritise Spanish interests in the Mediterranean and on Brexit, and will become less preoccupied with EU cooperation and integration. Spain is seeking a more balanced and broader relationship with the United States, but there is tension over the political crisis in Venezuela and trade issues. Impacts Relations with the United States will become more difficult, especially if President Donald Trump is re-elected. Although Spain would like to shift its regional emphasis towards Asia, Venezuela and the coronavirus could nullify that ambition. Immigration is now a priority, as further illegal inflows would fuel support for the far-right Vox party.


Subject US trade policy. Significance US President Donald Trump announced on March 22 that within 15 days a list of more than 1,000 Chinese imports to be subject to 25% tariffs will be released for 30 days of public comment. This could herald wider protectionist policies: the rhetoric of Trump's team may suggest its goal is to establish 'fair' trade, letting markets determine pricing and observing copyrights and patents, but the move also represents a key step in the fundamental 15-year US policy shift towards autarky. Impacts Forecasters were slow to see that US shale advances 15 years ago would alter energy markets -- now manufacturing too could change markedly. The United States may extend its shale experience to other sectors to reduce its imports substantially. If the United States becomes less dependent on certain regions for key imports, the government will gain foreign policy flexibility.


Significance Since taking office in January 2019, Bolsonaro's government has guided its international relations by its right-wing ideology. On the global stage, it has aligned itself closely with the Trump administration and had cordial relations with the government of former Argentine President Mauricio Macri, while initially maintaining a pragmatic approach to China, Brazil’s largest trading partner. Impacts Brazil is on a trajectory that will leave it at odds with the United States, China, Europe and Argentina simultaneously. Failure to roll out COVID-19 vaccines rapidly may inhibit Brazilian participation in international conferences when these resume. The agribusiness caucus in Congress will seek to diminish the government’s animosity towards China.


1993 ◽  
Vol 50 (2) ◽  
pp. 149-175 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kyle Longley

In February 1948 a spirited presidential race sparked a political powderkeg in normally tranquil Costa Rica. The opposition candidate, Otilio Ulate, unexpectedly defeated former president Rafael Angel Calderón. Calderón's National Republican Party, the Communist Partido Vanguardia Popular (Vanguard), along with incumbent President Teodoro Picado immediately overturned the results. The opposition responded by launching an armed struggle to install Ulate in power. Led by José Figueres, the rebels defeated the government army and its auxiliaries composed primarily of calderonista and vanguardista militiamen. In late April Figueres victoriously entered San José and established a revolutionary junta that ruled the country for eighteen months. At the end of this period, he stepped down and allowed Ulate to serve his full four-year term.


Significance Canada’s Liberal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is preparing to welcome a more predictable and stable partner in Biden than outgoing Republican President Donald Trump. However, Biden is also expected quickly to cancel the Keystone XL pipeline, cutting another lifeline to Canada’s oil industry and creating some strain in Canada-US ties. Impacts Improved Canada-US ties will persist even if Trudeau loses the next federal election to Conservative Erin O’Toole. Canada will re-engage militarily with UN peacekeeping and NATO deployments. Trudeau will encourage Biden to end US prosecution of Meng Wanzhou, allowing Canada to release her; Biden may agree. Canada’s border with the United States will open in stages as COVID-19 recedes. Ottawa will push Biden to end ‘Buy American’ procurement policies, with little success.


Significance The authorities went ahead with the arrest of Nika Melia, leader of the opposition United National Movement (UNM), on February 23 even after the prime minister resigned in protest. Georgian Dream's actions have caused concern in Western capitals that approved its election victory when the opposition cried foul. Impacts The crisis is a setback for the government's stated plan to apply for EU membership in 2024. There is growing talk in the United States about individual sanctions targeting Ivanishvili and his associates. Political turmoil will harm hopes of foreign direct investment and the imminent Anaklia port tender.


Significance Last week, its partners in the ‘Quad’ grouping -- the United States, Japan and Australia -- agreed to help increase its vaccine manufacturing and exporting capacity. Each of the Quad members is wary of China, which like India is gifting and selling coronavirus jabs around the world. Impacts India’s manufacturing sector will attract more foreign direct investment. Greater cooperation over supply chains will help strengthen India-Australia ties. Indian pharma will in the long term aim to ease dependence on imports of active pharmaceutical ingredients from China.


Significance The government will appeal the rulings, which follow action by renewables firms. With constitutional battles over energy investments already unfolding, the future of Mexico’s energy framework has been thrown into turmoil. Impacts Increasing energy prices will probably push inflation above Banxico’s upper target limit of 4%. AMLO’s apparent disregard for international trade agreements will strain relations with the United States. AMLO’s pro-austerity fiscal stance could take a toll on his popularity.


1918 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 96-126 ◽  
Author(s):  
Denys P. Myers

The shade of distinction sought to be shown by the title of this paper may require explanation. Imperfect wording involves either carelessness or ignorance; bad faith indicates dishonesty; nonexecution or disregard implies laxness in the government, if not carelessness; adverse or hostile municipal or judicial action connotes lack of coordination between the internal and external affairs of the State. It follows that such adverse action may be considered from a practical point of view as almost a normal kind of violence against international contracts. It is not to be excused on that account, but it may be considered as a frictional incident almost inseparable under some conditions from the existence of a State. Given either a government of definitely separated elements, such as the United States, or a government without much stability, or a State founded on a type of civilization different from the European order, and this sort of violation of treaty may be forecasted with certainty. Fortunately, however, the instances that cause contractual friction of this sort are of the grosser kinds of personal violence, or are commercial; they are not of a political character, cannot be said to involve policy, and only by a stretch of the imagination involve the tweedledum and tweedledee of international relations, “national honor and vital interest.” They are consequently extremely susceptible to simple and orderly solution.


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