Greek economy could slip into recession again

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Private Investment ◽  
The United States ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Investment Climate ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Greek Economy ◽  
Target Set ◽  
The Government

Subject Greece’s stagnating economy. Significance The economy failed to turn a corner in 2016, registering zero real GDP growth. The ambitious 2.7% GDP growth target, set for 2017 by the government and Greece’s lenders, now looks hard to achieve. However, the economy’s stabilisation, albeit at a level much lower than before the crisis, is evident. Impacts A swift end to the bailout review might lift uncertainty and improve the investment climate, allowing both domestic and private investment. Inclusion into the ECB’s quantitative easing programme would help inject additional liquidity into the economy, stimulating credit growth. Over the medium term, rising protectionism in the United States and Europe might restrict trade, reducing Greek goods and services exports.

Weak Mexican peso may yet bring trade boost

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Clinton Administration ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
The United States ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Mexican Peso ◽  
Close Integration

Subject Mexico's exchange rate and trade outlook. Significance In October, the IMF reduced its 2016 GDP growth forecast for Mexico from 2.5% to 2.1%. Relatively low growth in the United States, in addition to the plunge in oil prices from mid-2014, have triggered a contraction in trade. Previous trade slumps have hit the economy hard, given its degree of openness and its close integration with the United States. Impacts With oil prices having apparently found a floor, the peso should continue to recuperate from its recent lows. Neither the government nor the opposition is likely to advocate a surge of trade protectionism. Any NAFTA renegotiation, even under a Clinton administration, would probably reduce the scope of free trade within North America.

Taiwan will seek regional allies to diversify economy

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Legal Status ◽  
Trade Agreements ◽  
The United States ◽  
Regional Trade Agreements ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Regional Trade ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Global Competitiveness ◽  
The Government

Significance However, the government forecasts just 2.60% growth for the full year 2018. GDP growth in Taiwan is volatile but it is trending downward, averaging 2.5% annually during the years 2011-17. Taiwan’s disputed sovereignty and ambiguous international legal status make it difficult for it to maintain its global competitiveness as a small, highly trade-dependent economy. Impacts Other regional states will find an eager and active partner in Taiwan but they will be wary of antagonising China. Trade tensions between China and the United States threaten Taiwan's economy, since many Taiwanese companies supply Chinese exporters. Beijing may insist that regional trade agreements do not accept Taiwan as a member unless they include China, too.

Japan economic trends point to slowdown or recession

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Annual Rate ◽  
Consumer Sentiment ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Economic Trends ◽  
The Government ◽  
First Time ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject The macroeconomic outlook for Japan. Significance For the first time in six and a half years, businesses are pessimistic about the economic outlook, according to the results of a Nikkei-Markit survey of manufacturing purchasing managers released today. This comes just days after Japan’s first-quarter 2019 real GDP data surprised forecasters with a solid 2.1% growth over the previous quarter (seasonally adjusted, annual rate). Nominal growth was an even more surprising 3.3%. Impacts Even a recession is unlikely to deter a tax rise; the government would increase the immediate stimulus accompanying the rise. New US tariffs on China will mean lower exports from China to the United States, in turn reducing Chinese demand for Japanese components. Growth of jobs and labour income could boost consumer sentiment eventually, reversing an 18-month slide in confidence and consumption.

Energy reform will hit investor confidence in Mexico

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
International Trade ◽  
Trade Agreements ◽  
The United States ◽  
Energy Prices ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Investor Confidence ◽  
International Trade Agreements ◽  
The Government ◽  
Energy Reform

Significance The government will appeal the rulings, which follow action by renewables firms. With constitutional battles over energy investments already unfolding, the future of Mexico’s energy framework has been thrown into turmoil. Impacts Increasing energy prices will probably push inflation above Banxico’s upper target limit of 4%. AMLO’s apparent disregard for international trade agreements will strain relations with the United States. AMLO’s pro-austerity fiscal stance could take a toll on his popularity.

Turkish-US talks may limit Armenian genocide damage

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Economic Consequences ◽  
Armenian Genocide ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government

Significance Erdogan adopted a relatively conciliatory tone and stopped short of declaring retaliatory measures, for fear of the economic consequences in particular, despite the fact that most Turks see Biden’s move as an insult and an attack on Turkish dignity. Impacts Ankara’s options for retaliation are limited but could include reduced military coordination with Washington in Syria and Iraq. Turkey could ask non-NATO US forces to leave, but closing the Incirlik air and Kurecik radar bases would hurt relations with NATO. The issue could be used internally to rally Turkish nationalist anger with the United States in support of the government.

Government is unlikely to overhaul Poland’s tax regime

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Value Added ◽  
Disposable Income ◽  
Policy Preference ◽  
Corporate Taxes ◽  
Value Added Tax ◽  
Alternative Source ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
Indirect Taxes ◽  
The Government

Significance This continues the policy preference -- out of line with Poland’s peers -- for indirect taxes on goods and services, including a relatively high value-added tax (VAT) rate. The government says the sugar tax aims to curb rising obesity, but critics suspect it is a new way of raising revenue. Impacts Corporate taxes could be raised as an alternative source of revenue. Left unaddressed, the regressive trend in taxes and rising inequality may create an opening for the leftist Spring and Together parties. If UK taxes rise post-pandemic, the relative fall in disposable income could encourage Polish immigrants to return to Poland.

scholarly journals Exploration on factors influencing Korean diaspora entrepreneurs’ investment in the homeland

2018 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 338-362 ◽  
Author(s):  
Choo-Hui Park ◽  
Hankyu Chu
Keyword(s):  
Design Methodology ◽  
Investment Climate ◽  
Business Network ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Korean Diaspora ◽  
Factors Influencing ◽  
Investment Value ◽  
The World ◽  
The Difference ◽  
The Government

Purpose The Government of Korea institutionalized the World Korean Business Convention (WKBC) and the World Korean Business Network (WKBN) to promote Korean diaspora entrepreneurs’ investment in the homeland. Few studies have examined the effectiveness of the WKBC and WKBN and the critical variables affecting them. This paper aims to fill this gap by exploring important variables affecting Korean diaspora entrepreneurs’ investment in the homeland. It also seeks to examine the relationships among these variables to inquire upon a set of critical questions pertaining to Korean diaspora entrepreneurs’ investment in the homeland including the effectiveness of the WKBC and WKBN. Design/methodology/approach To achieve the above purpose, critical variables influencing Korean diaspora entrepreneurs’ investment in the homeland were identified and four hypotheses that include the inquiries pertaining to the effectiveness of the WKBC and WKBN were developed in terms of those variables. The hypotheses were empirically tested using the survey data gathered from the participants of the annual WKBC. Findings The current research found that Korean diaspora entrepreneurs’ evaluation of the investment climate in the homeland was not favorable. The WKBC was positively evaluated by Korean diaspora entrepreneurs willing to make investment, There is discrepancy between expectations of the WKBN’s target group (i.e. Korean diaspora entrepreneurs willing to make investment) and its performance for the group, and there is a difference between ascending and descending Korean diaspora entrepreneurs in assessment of investment value of the homeland. Originality/value A majority of studies on diaspora entrepreneurship and development have so far cast light on ascending diaspora entrepreneurs while neglecting descending diaspora entrepreneurs. In this regard, the most interesting finding of the current study to both researchers and policymakers may be the fact that descending Korean diaspora entrepreneurs assess the investment value of the homeland differently from ascending Korea diaspora entrepreneurs. The finding calls for further research on causes of the difference, and different natures of descending diaspora entrepreneurs compared to those of ascending diaspora entrepreneurs. Such research will enable policymakers to formulate and implement effective strategic diaspora policies that take the differences into consideration.

scholarly journals GST fraud prevention to ensure business sustainability: a Malaysian case study

2020 ◽  
Vol 27 (3) ◽  
pp. 245-265
Author(s):  
Zaleha Othman ◽  
Mohd Fareez Fahmy Nordin ◽  
Muhammad Sadiq
Keyword(s):  
Preventive Strategies ◽  
Sustainable Business ◽  
Fraud Prevention ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
Prevention Model ◽  
The Government ◽  
Sustainable Income ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThis study provides in-depth explanation of Goods and Services Tax (GST) fraud prevention towards sustainability business.Design/methodology/approachThis study applies a qualitative research method, i.e. case study, to address the specific research objective.FindingsThe finding revealed a GST prevention model towards sustainable business. The finding shows that it is pertinent for the government to set preventive strategies in order to retain sustainable income for the government. Two essential dimensions emerged in the findings to support preventive strategies, namely macro- and micro-level measures.Practical implicationsThe findings of this study provide managers, investors and policymakers with evidence to what extent GST fraud could be minimize in order to safeguard government source of revenue and retain sustainable business in a country. As GST is an important source of revenue for the government, it is thus crucial to prevent fraud from occurring.Originality/valuePast studies have primarily focused on GST implementation from the perspective of service tax effectiveness and efficiency. However, this study examined the impact of GST fraud to determine measures that could ensure service tax sustainability using preventive strategies, in turn, introducing to the existing literature on indirect tax.

Development Growth Models for Singapore and Malaysia: A Geweke Causality Analysis

2015 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 165-186 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tan Khee Giap ◽  
Nguyen Le Phuong Anh ◽  
Ye Ye Denise
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Linear Dependence ◽  
Growth Models ◽  
Growth Dynamics ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Multiple Time ◽  
Causality Analysis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Long Run

Purpose Nearly five decades after undergoing a structural transformation and navigating several external shocks, both Singapore and Malaysia are now grappling with some crucial policy challenges that necessitate a course-correction in order to sustain their growth momentum, going forward. In light of the renewed interest in understanding the growth constraints faced by the two countries, this paper aims to empirically explore the drivers of economic growth in both Singapore and Malaysia, using data from 1975 to 2012. Design/methodology/approach The paper employs a novel empirical approach-the Geweke causality analysis-to investigate the causal drivers of economic growth in Singapore and Malaysia. Intuitively, the Geweke causality analysis helps us understand and measure the linear dependence and feedback between multiple time series variables. To that effect, we perform both a bi-variate as well as a multi-variate causality analysis. Findings The empirical results established using Geweke causality analysis suggest that Malaysia's new development trajectory should lie in rebalancing the economy toward greater domestic demand and building a robust services sector. The results also suggest that Singapore, on the other hand, should embrace a growth model that goes beyond relying heavily on foreign direct investment (FDI) as a source of economic growth as the linear dependence between FDI and real GDP growth appears to be weaker compared to the linear dependence between the remaining variables and the real GDP growth. Originality/value While the traditional growth accounting framework provides useful insights at the aggregate level, there is a growing literature that discusses the importance of sectoral analysis to understand structural transformations in the economies which become important to sustain productivity growth in the long-run. This is immensely relevant in the case of Malaysia and Singapore, as well, especially with the changing policy focus in these countries to overcome structural growth issues. In light of this growing discussion on the importance of understanding the growth dynamics at the sectoral level, this paper presents new empirical evidence on the growth drivers in Singapore and Malaysia with a sectoral focus.

US protectionism would raise trade costs worldwide

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Trade Deficit ◽  
The United States ◽  
Final Demand ◽  
Services Trade ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
The Us ◽  
Commerce Department ◽  
Firing Line

Subject Exposure to US final demand. Significance The Commerce Department reported on March 7 that the US goods trade deficit widened to 69.7 billion dollars in January after a five-year high of 4% of GDP last year. The new administration has threatened to build a wall along the Mexican border, impose punitive tariffs on countries it runs a goods deficit with and label China a currency manipulator. Other countries also rely on US demand -- through goods and services trade, investment and remittances. Impacts In the unlikely event that Trump follows through on all his most extreme trade threats, the world could plunge into recession. Evidence does not support the new administration's view that free trade has damaged the US economy and the fortunes of its workforce. The WTO is reviewing several cases the previous US administration began against China -- extreme escalation could trigger US WTO withdrawal. Germany is the only G7 country that the United States runs both a goods and services trade deficit with, placing it in the firing line.

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