Park prosecution would seal left's victory in Seoul

Significance Unlike during her impeachment when she resisted all summons, Park plans to appear in court tomorrow in hopes of avoiding arrest and detention. Campaigning for the election to succeed her -- originally scheduled for December but brought forward by Park's dismissal -- is already in full swing. Impacts Even a nuclear test or provocation from North Korea would not save the conservatives. Moon’s plan to re-engage North Korea suggests relations with Washington will be rocky. Corporate corruption scandals will make business-bashing popular, but promises to curb the conglomerates will be hard to deliver on.

Headline NORTH KOREA: Nuclear test will spur deterrence efforts


Significance Since its first nuclear test in 2006, North Korea has made steady progress in nuclear weapons technology. The July 4 ICBM test reflects its progress on delivery systems with longer ranges and increased sophistication. Pyongyang routinely claims to possess the status as a full nuclear power with the ability to retaliate with strategic nuclear arms against a US attack. Impacts Beijing is likely to share Washington’s concerns about nuclear technology transfer by a more secure North Korean regime. However, Washington is likely to position more rapid-strike conventional forces in the region, over China’s vociferous objections. Once North Korea is confident in its deterrent, it may be willing to offer a cessation of testing in exchange for sanctions relief.


Significance Trump cited “tremendous anger and open hostility” in recent statements from North Korea as the reason. US allies were apparently not consulted over Trump’s intention to cancel, even though South Korea’s President Moon Jae-in and Japan’s foreign minister Taro Kono were in Washington in recent days. Hours before the cancellation, Pyongyang fulfilled its pledge to destroy its Punggye-Ri nuclear test site, observed by foreign journalists (but no nuclear experts). Impacts Trump’s rebuff will weaken North Korean peace advocates (maybe including Kim) and strengthen military hardliners. South Korea’s Moon, the eager Koreas peace advocate, is politically tarnished; his ties with Trump will be hard to repair. China will strengthen its influence over North Korea; sanctions enforcement will be eased quietly. Absent a successful summit, Trump’s ‘deal-maker’ reputation may suffer; he may shake-up his advisor team ahead of another summit.


Significance This signalled defiance of UN Security Council Resolution 2270, passed unanimously on March 2, which condemns Pyongyang's nuclear test on January 6 and its satellite launch (using ballistic missile technology) on February 7, imposes the toughest sanctions yet on the Kim regime. Impacts Whether the new sanctions are more effective than previous ones will take time to assess, and depends on interpretation and implementation. Pyongyang's strategic direction may be clarified once the ruling party holds its first Congress for 35 years in May. With China-North Korea ties icy, Russia will give Kim a degree of diplomatic cover. South Korea's new hard line is bipartisan; even most liberals no longer support a 'sunshine' policy. Any eventual return to diplomacy may have to await new leaders in Washington in 2017 and Seoul from February 2018.


Headline NORTH KOREA: Rocket test likely to follow nuclear test


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muzaffar Ganaie

<p><i>North Korea’s nuclear programme remains a key foreign policy challenge for United States. After its first nuclear test in 2006, Pyongyang has made an impressive progress in developing a credible nuclear deterrent through series of nuclear and missile tests. The diplomatic efforts to dissuade North Korea’s nuclear ambitions have not yielded positive results so far, as Pyongyang has not only developed a credible deterrent but continues to expand and strengthen it. The failure of Hanoi Summit, latest in the series of diplomatic initiatives to end the series has depended pessimism regarding future negations. Experts are skeptical about finding a diplomatic solution to the crises and the demand to explore other alternatives <sup>_____</sup> limited surgical strike, regime change, treating North Korea as de-facto nuclear weapon state <sup>_____</sup> to end the crises has intensified in recent years. However, dealing with the threat though these tools is highly risky and diplomatic outreach is the most preferred course to end the crises.</i></p>


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Headline NORTH KOREA: Kim will double down on nuclear deterrent


Keyword(s):  

Headline NORTH KOREA: Halting trade again will prevent recovery


Author(s):  
Asset A. Akhmadiya ◽  
Khuralay Moldamurat ◽  
Mo Jamshidi ◽  
Saule Brimzhanova ◽  
Nabi Nabiyev ◽  
...  

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