Canada voting system will hinder right-wing populism

Significance Trudeau’s government has been held up as a bulwark of liberalism given the surge of anti-immigration populist candidates and parties in Europe and the United States. However, two leadership candidates in the Conservative race have sought to ape the political style and policy agenda that brought Donald Trump to power in the United States. Mainstream Canadian political actors are seeking to either counter or benefit electorally from rising distrust in government, fears over immigration and integration, and communitarian focus on Islam within right-wing politics. Impacts Opposition to the Trump presidency may help unify fractious left-leaning Canadian voters behind the Liberals. However, the social-democratic New Democratic Party will cite Trudeau-Trump cooperation to peel off progressive voters. Alienation of anti-immigration Conservatives will increase under libertarian or pro-business leadership.

Subject Italy's new government. Significance The threat of an immediate general election from which Matteo Salvini’s League would emerge at the head of a nationalist alliance appears to have been avoided. His former allies, the Five Star Movement (M5S), have shifted their alliance leftwards, going into government with the Democratic Party (PD) and the smaller Free and Equal party. The coalition should be more pro-EU and more fiscally responsible than its populist predecessor. Its durability, however, is very fragile. Impacts The new government will adopt a pro-EU stance when it comes to relations with such countries as Russia, China and the United States. The EU will likely be more accommodating towards Italy’s concerns with immigration policy, now that a pro-EU government is in Rome. The fall of the League is for now a blow to momentum for right-wing populism across the EU.


Subject The security of electoral systems. Significance The United States is one of many countries due to hold elections this year, amid concern over foreign interference. Although interference by domestic or foreign actors through social media has attracted most attention, hacking is a broader phenomenon that can take place at the technical level (voting machines, counting mechanisms), the infrastructure level (electoral rolls, election officials) and the social level (news organisations, political parties). Attacks are more commonplace at the infrastructure level than the technical one. Impacts Beyond external actors, domestic political actors will also engage in disinformation as electoral strategies. Voters may be put off voting or question the outcome of the vote. Societal rifts are likely to widen due to lack of shared ground truth.


2021 ◽  
pp. 073112142110246
Author(s):  
Adam Mayer

In the last few decades, the United States has experienced several related and significant societal trends—the transition of the energy system away from coal, the intensification of partisan polarization, and the rise of a populist right-wing political ideology, perhaps best exemplified by the election of Donald Trump. We build Gramling and Freudenberg’s little-explored concept of “development channelization” to argue that nostalgic right-wing populism, grievances directed toward the federal government, and partisanship converge to potentially thwart efforts to transition and diversify rural economies. Populist nostalgia and blame are associated with support for expanding the collapsing coal industry but do not predict support for other types of development. There are patterns of partisan polarization in support for extractive industries and wind power, but many development options appear to be relatively nonpartisan. We discuss these findings in terms of populism, nostalgia, partisan polarization, and the potential for rural renewal in the United States.


2020 ◽  
pp. 189-204
Author(s):  
Sebastián Hurtado-Torres

This concluding chapter reflects on the influence of the United States in Chilean politics. Since the dynamics of Chilean politics replicated very closely the ideological divide of the global Cold War, the overarching goal of the U.S. strategy toward Chile between 1964 and 1970 was to keep the Marxist Left from taking power. Arguably, the most important part of that strategy was the considerable support provided to the reformist political project of the Christian Democratic Party, as it constituted a viable alternative to the growing appeal of the revolutionary Left and offered a path toward economic and social modernization that coincided with the ideological outlook of the Johnson administration's foreign policy. Despite an imbalance of power, the U.S. foreign policy apparatus did not determine the motivations or intentions of the Chilean political actors with which it established relationships, nor did it shape the political debates on which the U.S. interests in Chile could be at stake. The United States established itself as a relevant and even powerful informal actor in Chilean politics but only as an ally of forces whose interests and goals, though convergent with U.S. interests, were independent.


Significance The three main parties -- the leftist New Democratic Party (NDP), the centrist Liberals, and the right-wing Conservatives -- are nearly tied in national voter intention polls. While the effects of Canada's first-past-the-post voting system appear to give the Conservatives and the NDP better chances at winning a plurality of seats in parliament, all three parties have a chance at victory, an unprecedented situation in Canadian history. Impacts The death of refugee Alan Kurdi has resulted in all three parties promising to expand Canada's acceptance of refugees from Iraq and Syria. The longer campaign could result in a doubling of the election's cost to the taxpayer. Both the NDP and the Liberals have promised that this will be the final election using the first-past-the-post system.


Significance Long-standing Prime Minister Dean Barrow will not be running again, so that Belize will experience a change of leadership even if his United Democratic Party (UDP) wins re-election. The key electoral issues will revolve around the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and allegations of corruption affecting the UDP. Impacts Tourism will be slow to recover, with ongoing restrictions and reduced visitor numbers seeing many businesses struggle. The severity of the pandemic in the United States, Belize’s main source of tourists, increases the risks of reopening to visitors. COVID-19 concerns could result in a low election turnout, undermining the mandate of the winning party. Whoever wins the election will inherit major socioeconomic challenges that will curtail any political honeymoon period.


Author(s):  
Robert F. Wheeler

For many years students of German Labor history have speculated about the possible existence of a Tony Sender Nachlass somewhere in the United States. Ms. Sender, a Social Democratic journalist, was active in the Socialist Women's anti-war movement during World War I, played an important local role in the German Revolution of 1918 (in Frankfurt/Main), was a leading member of the Independent Social Democratic and later the Social Democratic party, held an important position in the German Metal Workers Union, and sat in the Reichstag throughout the Weimar Republic. She'fled Germany in 1933 and eventually migrated to the United States where she died in 1964 at the age of 76. Following her death what remained of her papers were entrusted to the State Historical Society of Wisconsin in Madison where they are now located and available for use.


Significance The election, Israel's fourth in less than ten years, was a referendum on Netanyahu, who had faced unprecedented public criticism leading up to the election. However, with a high turnout of 72%, his centre-right Likud defeated other parties by winning 30 out of the Knesset's 120 seats, an increase from 18 seats in the 2013 parliament. The prime minister reportedly called HaBayit HaYehudi (Jewish Home) leader Naftali Bennet and other party heads to discuss forming a new coalition, just minutes after exit polls were announced. He needs the support of 61 Knesset members to form a government. Impacts A nationalist government would expand settlements, deepening tension with the Palestinian Authority (PA), and risking West Bank violence. The PA will likely advance diplomatic efforts to gain recognition as a state and to pressure Israel in international forums. Netanyahu's pledge not to establish a Palestinian state could prompt Washington to support a UNSC resolution on a two-state solution. A right-wing government will heighten tension with the United States and Europe just as nuclear negotiations with Iran reach a conclusion. A right-wing government with the ultra-Orthodox and Kulanu could seek to increase government subsidies while lowering the cost of living.


Subject State and municipal pensions in the United States. Significance Losses from the 2008-09 financial crisis, mismanagement and insufficient annual allocations have led to a severe fiscal shortfall for a group of municipalities and states. However, changes to pension schemes are politically difficult for policymakers to achieve, given the clout of public sector unions. Impacts Firms may relocate or forgo investment to avoid future pension-driven tax increases. Republicans will play to their non-urban base by attacking the benefits of public sector employees. Post-COP21 demand for low-carbon investments is likely to complicate pension managers' search for returns. The US urban-suburban-rural divide poses greater difficulties for the Democratic Party than for Republicans.


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