Zimbabwe's opposition will bank on electoral alliance

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
Food Security ◽  
Financial Institutions ◽  
Public Expenditure ◽  
Fall Armyworm ◽  
International Financial Institutions ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Human Rights Abuses ◽  
The Government ◽  
Ruling Party

Significance With the country mired in a deepening economic crisis and the ruling party engaging in debilitating succession struggles, opposition parties are debating whether they can exploit the government's fiscal woes to contest forthcoming by-elections and national polls or to boycott elections in part or altogether. Impacts A fall armyworm outbreak is likely to devastate crops nationwide, prompting a food security crisis. The government will likely resist pressure from international financial institutions to curb public expenditure ahead of the 2018 elections. Increased human rights abuses by the authorities would prompt international condemnation and possible resumption of broader EU sanctions.

Colombia unrest offers no quick solutions

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
Fiscal Reform ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Human Rights Abuses ◽  
International Reputation ◽  
The Government

Significance Large demonstrations on May 28 resulted in several deaths in Cali; President Ivan Duque deployed troops there the next day. Although that appears, temporarily, to have restored some order, talks between the government and protest leaders have stalled. Impacts The government still plans fiscal reform of some kind, but any proposals now risk inflaming unrest. Prolonged accusations of human rights abuses and impunity could damage Colombia’s international reputation. Fear of socialism and Venezuela’s struggles offer the government a powerful electoral weapon against the left.

Malawian president's popularity will persist

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Food Security ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Fall Armyworm ◽  
Maize Crop ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Water Development ◽  
Agriculture Irrigation ◽  
The Government

Significance Funds for emergency maize crop purchases from Zambia were allegedly misappropriated, with former Minister of Agriculture, Irrigation and Water Development George Chaponda implicated in the deal. The scandal comes as the government struggles to deal with the impacts of an ongoing food security crisis which has been compounded by the arrival of the fall armyworm (FAW), a pest which has affected maize crops nationwide. Impacts Chaponda’s leading allies in government could lose their positions. Protests and demonstrations against government are likely to increase in urban areas. Projected economic growth of 4.5% for 2017 may prove unachievable.

Tajik remittance slump will weaken flawed banks

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Institutions ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Banking System ◽  
International Financial Institutions ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Bank Deposits ◽  
The Rich ◽  
The Government ◽  
Main Banks ◽  
Poor Management

Subject Tajikistan's troubled banking sector. Significance Tajikistan's banking system has been in crisis since 2015, as problems in Russia feed through to this remittance-dependent economy. A decline in funds sent home by labour migrants has shrunk bank deposits, and the proportion of non-performing loans has risen sharply. The cash crisis is exacerbated by poor management and cronyism in financial institutions. The main banks, Tojiksodirotbank and Agroinvestbank, have restricted customer withdrawals. Impacts International financial institutions will condition assistance on reforms. However, the government will balk at any reform measures liable to hurt the rich and powerful. The government may seek Chinese support for the banking sector.

Ruling party will look inwards ahead of Burundi polls

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Regional Security ◽  
The Political ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Dynamics ◽  
Fourth Term ◽  
The Government ◽  
Ruling Party

Subject Political dynamics ahead of 2020 elections. Significance The government has launched talks with CNARED, a forum of opposition parties, to negotiate the return of its exiled leaders ahead of the 2020 presidential elections. President Pierre Nkurunziza, who has said he will not run for a fourth term, appears to be cautiously reaching out to the opposition in an effort to ease his regime’s diplomatic isolation and deepening economic crisis. Impacts The 2020 elections will likely see continued heavy human rights violations and restrictions on the political space. CNARED’s mooted return might increase tensions, rights violations and repression, especially once they try to campaign outside Bujumbura. Burundi’s crisis weighs heavily on regional security, especially in Congo’s South Kivu Province; the elections might exacerbate this.

Returning jihadis raise Tunisians' anxiety

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
Public Expenditure ◽  
Excessive Force ◽  
Security Sector ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Local Populations ◽  
Foreign Countries ◽  
Border Areas ◽  
The Government ◽  
Foreign Fighters

Subject Foreign fighters' impact on security. Significance Between 3,000-6,000 Tunisians have left to fight alongside jihadist organisations abroad since 2011, many of them in the neighbouring Libya. The possibility of their return has caused domestic anxiety and tension, triggering protests and controversy. Impacts The government will likely seek to tighten security, especially in the border areas. However, excessive force and human rights violations could radicalise the local populations. Public expenditure in the security sector will increase, as well as defence contracts with foreign countries.

Pope's Mexico visit will highlight unresolved problems

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Human Rights ◽  
Mexico City ◽  
Violent Crime ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Human Rights Abuses ◽  
Indigenous Groups ◽  
The Government

Significance The visit will be his fourth to the Americas (following trips to Brazil in 2013, Ecuador, Bolivia and Paraguay in July 2015 and Cuba and the United States in September 2015) and will include stops in Mexico City, the neighbouring state of Mexico, and the states of Chihuahua, Chiapas, and Michoacan -- all of which suffer from serious problems of corruption, violent crime, poverty, inequality and human rights abuses. Impacts While the Pope is popular with most Mexicans, his visit is unlikely to reverse the country's trend towards secularism. Nevertheless, it may help to improve the Church's image, especially amongst indigenous groups, and slow the progress of Protestantism. Neither the government nor the opposition -- both tainted by corruption -- will derive any direct political benefit from the visit.

Mozambican debt fallout will persist over Kroll report

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Institutions ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
International Financial Institutions ◽  
Short Term ◽  
State Budget ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Domestic Debt ◽  
Financing Costs ◽  
International Donor ◽  
The Government

Significance Risk firm Kroll was looking into undisclosed state loans worth 2 billion dollars, but it said that the Mozambican government did not collaborate fully with the firm's investigation and that the CEO of the three companies openly blocked attempts to locate futher information. Expectations that the IMF and the international donor community would start talks on new funding agreements with Maputo have subsequently stalled, while mounting domestic loans taken out by the government have further soured relations with international financial institutions. Impacts Lack of transparency over financing of the state budget will preclude large-scale donor budgetary assistance in the short term. The private sector will increase its calls for the government to renegotiate the scheduling of domestic debt repayments. The ongoing debt fallout could raise infrastructure financing costs and delay several liquefied natural gas (LNG) mega-investments.

Cameroon anglophone crisis could militarise further

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
Governing Council ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Human Rights Abuses ◽  
Security Personnel ◽  
The Government ◽  
Separatist Groups

Significance The crisis in the predominantly anglophone Northwest and Southwest regions has escalated in recent months, with a heightened security crackdown on pro-independence demonstrators resulting in civilian deaths. This has prompted a spike in violence by more radical separatist groups -- such as the Ambazonia Governing Council (AGC), which advocates a separate 'Southern Cameroons' or 'Ambazonia' anglophone state -- and the deaths of several security personnel. Impacts While Biya could invoke extraordinary measures, he is unlikely to postpone the 2018 elections and risk tainting his continued tenure. International arrest warrants issued by the government against key separatist leaders are unlikely to be acted upon by Western partners. The government's heavy-handed response will increase international scrutiny of the regime's tactics and alleged human rights abuses.

Mexico will adopt a more active foreign policy stance

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Foreign Minister ◽  
General Assembly ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Human Rights Abuses ◽  
Policy Positions ◽  
American States ◽  
Democratic Practices ◽  
The Government

Significance The decision followed Mexico’s hosting in June of the forty-seventh General Assembly of the Organization of American States (OAS), during which a Mexico-led proposal to condemn the Venezuelan government of President Nicolas Maduro for anti-democratic practices failed to secure the necessary votes. Foreign Minister Luis Videgaray said that despite this outcome, Mexico would maintain a critical stance towards the Maduro regime due to its human rights abuses and refusal to respect social and political liberties. His statement confirms a recent shift in Mexico’s traditional non-interventionist foreign policy posture. Impacts Washington’s hostility will add urgency to Mexico’s efforts to redefine its foreign policy stance. The mismatch between Mexico’s foreign policy positions and its domestic reality will raise awkward questions for the government. Lopez Obrador will face increasing pressure to condemn Maduro, and assertions that his leftist presidency would ruin Mexico.

Tajik bond issue is symptom of chronic debt addiction

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Institutions ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Foreign Currency ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Limited Capacity ◽  
Budget Deficits ◽  
International Financial Institutions ◽  
Bond Issue ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government

Subject Tajikistan's search for loans. Significance The government has successfully issued a bond to finance construction of the costly, high-prestige Roghun hydroelectric scheme. With limited capacity to increase revenue, the government finances budget deficits and new projects with loans and grants from international financial institutions (IFIs) and other foreign sources, notably China. Impacts External debt will mount up through persistent borrowing to cover the budget deficit. Debt servicing is risky given Tajikistan's vulnerability to fluctuating cotton and aluminium prices. Electricity exports are seen as a new foreign currency source but the major new plant is unfinished. Officials may view bond issuance as a 'cost-free' way of funding projects when IFIs shy away.

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