US South China Sea policy bifurcates under Trump
Subject Significance Comments by US President Donald Trump and members of his administration indicate that US policy in the South China Sea will be unpredictable and potentially destabilising. Impacts Trump's personal approach will likely contain a mix of aggressive posturing and unexpected concessions. If cabinet officials exert a moderating influence, the administration will develop a bifurcated approach to China. Beijing will try hard to keep relations on an even keel. Provocative US actions would quickly alter Asian states’ perceptions that Chinese assertiveness is the primary driver of regional tensions. The South China Sea is a non-negotiable 'core interest' for Beijing, even if the Trump administration tries to link it to trade issues.