Fiji will play outsized role in climate diplomacy

Subject Fijian diplomacy. Significance Fiji’s multilateral diplomacy will receive a boost in 2017 by holding two influential positions as president of the UN General Assembly, and president of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)’s COP23 session in November -- the first time a Pacific island state has held either role. Its ‘Look North’ policy continues to seek deeper cooperation with China, Indonesia and Russia at the expense of traditional regional powers Australia and New Zealand. Impacts Fiji’s diplomatic roles in 2017 provide China -- a longstanding ally and its largest aid donor -- with greater influence in UN processes. Seeking further concessions from Australia and New Zealand, Fiji will hold out on the long-delayed PACER Plus regional trade agreement. Domestic politics remain the government’s main concern, but Fiji continues to claim regional leadership among the Pacific island states.

Significance Australia holds its federal election this year, but Morrison’s visits are not an election push, they are part of Australia’s effort to increase influence among Pacific island states. Two issues, climate change and labour mobility, could complicate this. Impacts Pacific islands will hope for signs that their concerns about labour access to Australia are heeded in Canberra. The perception in Pacific island states that Canberra sees them as its ‘backyard’ could strain diplomacy. Some Pacific island states could sue Australia and Australia-based corporates over emissions and climate. With its government’s focus on green and labour issues, New Zealand may be nimbler in building ties with Pacific islands. Current opinion polling suggests that the opposition Labor party will win the Australian federal election.


Significance New Zealand's main political parties are divided on TPP ratification, which marks the first such division on a trade agreement in 40 years. The main opposition Labour party has opposed the agreement on the basis of 'sovereignty' issues. The political split reflects a wider public concern than there was about past free trade agreements about the degree to which the inclusion of an investor-state dispute clause in the TPP could constrain the ability of the New Zealand government to formulate national policy. Impacts A housing boom in Auckland has fuelled construction, but the rebuild of earthquake-devastated Christchurch has peaked. Early ratification of the TPP by New Zealand may expose acceptable concessions should US rejection lead to renegotiation of the pact. New Zealand's dairy sector may benefit from a 2017 price rebound should EU oversupply retract in the second half of 2016.


Subject The reaction of Pacific island states to Paris climate agreement. Significance The Pacific islands were among the strongest advocates of a comprehensive climate agreement at the 21st Conference of the Parties (COP21) in December. After being portrayed as the moral face of the urgency of climate action in Paris, Pacific countries face the domestic challenge of building domestic institutional capacities to plan and implement their own low-carbon development pathways and ensure that these are harmonised with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Impacts The new Pacific Islands Development Forum will provide an institutional platform for climate advocacy. Speedy ratification of the Paris accord led by Pacific countries could help it come quickly into force. Forested countries, such as Papua New Guinea and the Solomon Islands, will seek to benefit from their support for countering deforestation.


Subject Prospects for a Canada-China trade agreement. Significance Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has expressed interest in negotiating a trade agreement with China, and will lead a high-level delegation to China this March to secure opportunities for Canadian business. Increased trade with China could prove a significant boost to sectors of Canada's flagging commodities-driven economy, such as agri-business, finance and aerospace, but the domestic politics of trade in Canada remain controversial. Impacts Canada's oil, lumber and agricultural industries will lobby hard for any potential agreement. Political fallout surrounding the Energy East pipeline may hinder the Trudeau government's ability to meet Chinese preconditions elsewhere. Canadian criticism of China's human rights record and espionage activities may present complications if trade negotiations are undertaken.


2017 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 2254-2256
Author(s):  
Hongfei Yue

As we know, the Small Island Developing States face special challenges to their development. This is particularly true for the Pacific Island States, scattered as they are over a huge area of ocean.More specifically, the 22 Pacific Island countries are scattered over one third of the globe (thirty million sq. km. mostly ocean). The total population of the South Pacific excluding Australia and New Zealand is about 8 million; half of which reside in Papua New Guinea.Many stakeholders have been involving in assisting the development of Pacific Island Countries for a long time. In recent years, China has become one of the active players in the inclusive and sustainable development of Pacific Island Countries.


Significance The coalition has been in office since October 2017 under Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern. This budget combines fiscal restraint with increased social, foreign affairs and aid spending and infrastructure investment. The government will produce two further budgets before its current term ends. Impacts The budget will support Wellington’s efforts to increase its diplomatic presence in and aid to South Pacific island states. In increasing its diplomatic presence in the South Pacific, New Zealand will vie with China for influence, and try to combat climate change. Effective fiscal management will reinforce New Zealand’s financial capacity to manage environmental and economic difficulties.


Subject New Zealand's foreign policy towards the Pacific region. Significance New Zealand is 'resetting' its relationship and engagement with South Pacific island nations, which includes increasing its financial contribution to the islands’ development and widening interaction, potentially to a genuinely two-way engagement in place of past ‘paternalistic benevolence’. This is important for Pacific security and prosperity. Impacts China is expanding its influence in the Pacific Islands; frictions may rise between Beijing and Wellington. Beijing and Wellington will compete for influence via infrastructure, trade and aid projects, and naval presence. EU, US and Japanese interest in the Pacific will grow; the United Kingdom is already expanding its diplomatic presence. Rich Pacific marine resources including fish will be increasingly important as world population and food demand grow.


Subject Foreign interventions and influence in the Asia-Pacific. Significance Acting US Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary for South-east Asia Patrick Murphy warned last month that “heavy-handed” tactics by China to prise Pacific island nations from Taiwan’s diplomatic embrace may destabilise the region. Impacts Increasing economic and security pressures will put severe strains on social and political systems. Unregulated migration will cause economic dislocation and sow discord in tribal communities. Australia and New Zealand will increase their engagement with the region, particularly at a security level.


2009 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
John Overton

New Zealand's relationship with its Pacific Island neighbours stretches back centuries, being characterised by movements of people, ideas, commodities, services and finance. It has been a reciprocal and dynamic relationship. Aid from New Zealand to Pacific Island states has been but one of its elements and one that has existed by that name only in the last 50 years or so. Yet it has proved to be one of the most volatile in terms of changing policies and priorities and it is presently under another phase of review.


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