TurkStream will need Russian gas discount deal

Subject The Russo-Turkish intergovernmental TurkStream agreement. Significance An agreement signed by Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan on October 10 envisages a 31.5-billion-cubic-metres/year (bcm/y) natural gas transit line under the Black Sea and through Turkey to the Turkish-Greek border. One of two parallel pipes would supply 15.75 bcm/y gas to Turkey, replacing an existing pipeline. The second would export the same volume to European markets via a planned border 'hub' and export route yet to be announced. Impacts TurkStream's extra volume will increase Turkish dependence on Russian gas but allow more supply flexibility during peak winter demand. Delivering more Russian gas to Central-Eastern Europe will make it more difficult for other potential gas suppliers to secure market share. The agreement will bring Ankara and Moscow closer and may be followed by a new deal to restart the frozen Akkuyu nuclear plant.

Subject The decision to restart the TurkStream natural gas pipeline from Russia to Turkey. Significance The agreement on August 9 between Russian and Turkish Presidents Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdogan to resume the TurkStream project relaunches their partnership in the energy sector. This had been frozen as a result of Turkey's shooting down of Russian Su-24 jet last November. Impacts Turkey could start importing up to 15.75 bcm additional natural gas under the Black Sea by 2019. Such a reduced amount compared with the original plan would seem to allow room in the Turkish gas market for rival suppliers. TurkStream could be extended into the EU only if the European Commission and Gazprom compromise on third-party access to the pipeline.


Subject Trump enthusiasts in Central-Eastern Europe. Significance Some of the most vocal and high-ranking supporters abroad of the Republican candidate for the US presidency, Donald Trump, are in Central-Eastern Europe (CEE). The first sitting head of state or government to endorse Trump's bid was Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban; he has been joined by Czech President Milos Zeman. Given Trump's hints at waiving the US commitment to defending this strategically volatile region, this may mask a degree of cognitive dissonance. However, CEE leaders are pursuing domestic games and betting on the star of illiberalism rising, with good reason. Impacts The EU will face disunity and, potentially, disintegration, should it not alter its current 'single-speed' form. Russian President Vladimir Putin will get a freer hand; provocations against NATO and neighbouring states are likely to be ramped up. The appeal of the Western liberal order will dissipate and new, illiberal forms of development will proliferate in the world.


Significance In the weeks after the energy earthquake generated by Russian President Vladimir Putin's announcement that Russia was cancelling plans to construct the South Stream gas pipeline across the Black Sea, tremors and aftershocks are still reverberating around South-Eastern Europe. Hopes that the announcement was a bluff intended to increase Russia's bargaining power with Brussels, or that South Stream can be revived, seem misconceived. Impacts Passing the blame for the cancellation onto the EU is unlikely to work, in part thanks to the way in which Putin broke the news. Russia will lose significant leverage over the participant countries, particularly those in Eastern and South-Eastern Europe. The biggest winner could be the EU, assuming it steps into the energy vacuum and helps countries secure alternative supply routes.


Subject LNG in Greece, Croatia and Poland. Significance Liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminals and interconnectors are part of the north-south natural gas corridor advocated by EU member states in Central-Eastern Europe (CEE) as a means to reduce dependence on Russia. Impacts The LNG project in Greece could slow down Croatia's plans to build an LNG terminal off the island of Krk. Access to cheap US gas via LNG is transforming the natural gas market worldwide. Cheaper gas may facilitate the transition from coal and increase the share of renewables across the region.


Subject Trump’s effect on US-European relations. Significance Staff turnover and fragmented decision-making at the highest level in the White House and State Department are leaving mounting problems in Central-Eastern Europe (CEE) to the Defense Department and NATO. Along the Eastern frontier, concerns over Russian aggression have led to competition for more US attention from the Baltic to the Black Sea. Impacts Acceptance of the ‘America First’ doctrine will indirectly authorise nationalist politics in Europe. Trump’s admiration for their methods will empower East European ‘strongmen’. Turkey will further distance itself from core principles of NATO collaboration.


Significance Since joining the EU in 2007, Bulgaria has touted its role as an advocate for further enlargement. In reality, its contribution to the Union’s policy in the Western Balkans or the Black Sea has been meagre. Impacts The Commission may partly fund cross-border projects advanced by member states in South-eastern Europe, but implementation will be slow. Bulgaria is pitching to abolish roaming charges within the Western Balkans as well as between the region and the EU. The EU-Turkey summit in Varna could be called off at the last minute because of rows with EU member states, notably Cyprus.


2018 ◽  
Vol XIX (1) ◽  
pp. 578-582
Author(s):  
ZIDARU Marian

In the course of 2018, on the background of increasing tensions with USA on Ukraine and Siria, Russian President Vladimir Putin decide to liquidate the conflict in Ukraine by destroying Ukrainian army and invading southern part of this country. The aims of the operation, are: -Denial of Ukraine access to the Black Sea; -Getting Russia's access to Danube. -Providing Russia's access from the mainland to the Crimea; -Preventing the creation of NATO's bases in southern Ukraine. As a Secondary Direction: An attack against Dobrogea in order to distract NATO's main operation and prevent the alliance to intervene before reaching primary objective in Ukraine by Russian troops: conquering the south of Ukraine. We develop this scenario in order to show our defense weaknesses at the Black Sea area.


Kybernetes ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 47 (8) ◽  
pp. 1664-1686 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cihan Çetinkaya ◽  
Mehmet Kabak ◽  
Mehmet Erbaş ◽  
Eren Özceylan

Purpose The aim of this study is to evaluate the potential geographic locations for ecotourism activities and to select the best one among alternatives. Design/methodology/approach The proposed model consists of four sequential phases. In the first phase, different geographic criteria are determined based on existing literature, and data are gathered using GIS. On equal criteria weighing, alternative locations are determined using GIS in the second phase. In the third phase, the identified criteria are weighted using analytical hierarchy process (AHP) by various stakeholders of potential ecotourism sites. In the fourth phase, the PROMETHEE method is applied to determine the best alternative based on the weighted criteria. Findings A framework including four sequential steps is proposed. Using real data from the Black Sea region in Turkey, the authors test the applicability of the evaluation approach and compare the best alternative obtained by the proposed method for nine cities in the region. Consequently, west of Sinop, east of Artvin and south of the Black Sea region are determined as very suitable locations for ecotourism. Research limitations/implications The first limitation of the study is considered the number of included criteria. Another limitation is the use of deterministic parameters that do not cope with uncertainty. Further research can be conducted for determining the optimum locations for different types of tourism, e.g. religion tourism, hunting tourism and golf tourism, for effective tourism planning. Practical implications The proposed approach can be applied to all area that cover the considered criteria. The approach has been tested in the Black Sea region (nine cities) in Turkey. Social implications Using the proposed approach, decision-makers can determine locations where environmentally responsible travel to natural areas to enjoy and appreciate nature that promotes conservation have a low visitor impact and provide for beneficially active socioeconomic involvement of local individuals. Originality/value To the best knowledge of the authors, this is the first study which applies a GIS-based multi-criteria decision-making approach for ecotourism site selection.


2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 141-146
Author(s):  
Valentin-Costinel TOTIR ◽  
Roxana ALEXANDRU

Abstract: During history, the main channel of communication and cooperation between countries was through commerce and, consequently, through transport. Among all the transport ways, the maritime transport is the one that offers the best cost – benefits ratio. This article is addressed to all the people involved or interested in the economic and military fields and aims to highlight the importance of the Black Sea and North Sea connecting corridor in ensuring peace and stability in Europe in general and in South-Eastern Europe in special. To achieve this goal, we will review the historical conflicts among European countries for waterway control and make a descriptive analysis of the stability situation in the areas affected by them. Furthermore, using the hypothetical-deductive method, we will highlight the manner in which the connection of the Black Sea with the North Sea has influenced economic and military exchanges between riparian states and the impact on stability across European continent. At the end of the article, we will show how economic and military stability in south-eastern Europe is influenced and threatened by geopolitical changes in the wider Black Sea region and how this stability can be maintained and strengthened due to the great possibilities for economic cooperation among the countries of Western and South-Eastern Europe. The novelty of this approach is that it aims to analyze the importance of the Black Sea-North Sea channel in the context of fundamental changes in the politico-military situation in South-East Europe, generated by the expansion of the Russian Federation and the conflict between Turkey and Greece, NATO member countries.


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