Brexit increases trade uncertainties in Brazil

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Negative Impact ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Import Demand ◽  
Economic Effects ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
Currency Markets ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Near Term ◽  
Severe Recession ◽  
The Eu

Subject Brexit's impact on Brazil's trade outlook. Significance The process of UK withdrawal from the EU (Brexit) will produce complex, uncertain and far-reaching economic effects. Brazil faces Brexit while undergoing a severe recession and profound political crisis. Trade has offered the only positive economic news in Brazil during 2016, owing largely to currency depreciation and depressed import demand. Impacts If Brexit reinforces the decline in Chinese growth, this will have a negative impact on Brazil's exports. Crucially, it is also likely to delay the conclusion of the free trade agreement between the EU and Mercosur. Near-term, Brexit represents an additional source of uncertainty, with increased instability in financial and currency markets.

scholarly journals Unemployment and spell duration during the Great Recession in the EU

2015 ◽  
Vol 36 (2) ◽  
pp. 216-235 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carlos Gradín ◽  
Olga Cantó ◽  
Coral del Río
Keyword(s):  
Great Recession ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Labour Force ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Unemployment Spells ◽  
Practical Implications ◽  
The Eu

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to analyze the different dynamic characteristics of unemployment in a selected group of European Union countries during the current Great Recession, which had unequal consequences on employment depending on the country considered. Design/methodology/approach – The paper follows Shorrocks’s proposal of a duration-sensitive measure of unemployment, and uses cross-sectional data reported by Eurostat coming from European Labour Force Surveys. Findings – The results add some evidence on the relevance of incorporating spells’ duration in measuring unemployment, finding remarkable differences in unemployment patterns in time among European countries. Research limitations/implications – In this paper unemployment is analyzed for all the labor force. Future research should investigate patterns across specific groups such as young people, women, immigrants or the low skilled. Practical implications – It is generally accepted that the negative impact of unemployment on individual welfare can be very different depending on its duration. However, conventional statistics on unemployment do not adequately capture to what extent the recession is not only increasing the incidence of unemployment but also its severity in terms of duration in time of ongoing unemployment spells. The paper shows an easy and practical way to do it in order to improve the understanding of the unemployment phenomenon, using information usually reported by statistical offices. Originality/value – First, the paper provides a tool for dynamic analysis of unemployment based on reported cross-sectional data. Second, the paper demonstrates the empirical relevance of considering spells’ duration when assessing differences in unemployment across countries or in unemployment trends. This is usually neglected or only partially addressed by most conventional measures of unemployment.

Creeping authoritarianism is a real risk in Tunisia

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The United States ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Real Risk ◽  
Chief Prosecutor ◽  
Moderating Role ◽  
The Eu

Significance He did not name a new prime minister. Over July 25-26, Saied dismissed Prime Minister Hicham Mechichi, dissolved his government, suspended parliament for 30 days, lifted parliamentary immunity and declared himself chief prosecutor, triggering Tunisia’s worst political crisis in a decade. Impacts The Ennahda party could be persecuted once again, this time on corruption charges, as the reconciliation offered excludes its members. Tunisia may become a new ideological battleground, pitting Turkey and Qatar against the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Saudi Arabia and Egypt. The EU, the United States and Algeria have some influence on Tunisia and could perhaps play a moderating role.

Non-compliance behavior of de-risking force the EU to enhance anti-money laundering regulation

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Kalle Johannes Rose
Keyword(s):  
Money Laundering ◽  
Financial Institutions ◽  
Law And Economics ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Regulatory Framework ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Functional Methods ◽  
Compliance Behavior ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
The Eu

Purpose Recent research shows that because of money-laundering risks, there has been an increase in the off-boarding of certain types of corporate clients in the financial sector. This phenomenon known as “de-risking” has been argued to have a negative impact on society, because it increases the possible risk of money laundering. The purpose of this paper is to analyze whether the de-risking strategy of financial institutions results in an expansion of the regulatory framework concerning anti-money laundering focusing on off-boarding of clients and, if so, is there a way to avoid further regulation by changing present behavior. Design/methodology/approach This paper applies functional methods to law and economics to achieve higher efficiency in combating money laundering. Findings In this paper, it is found that the continuing of de-risking by financial institutions because of the avoidance strategy of money-laundering risks will inevitably result in further regulatory demands regarding the off-boarding process of clients. The legal basis for the introduction of further regulatory intervention is that some of the de-risking constitutes a direct contradiction to the aim of the present regulatory framework, making the behavior non-compliant to the regulation. Originality/value There has been very little research concerning de-risking related to money laundering. The present research has focused on the effect on society and not the relationship between the financial institutions and the regulator. This paper raises an important and present problem, as the behavior of the financial institutions constitute a response from the regulator that is contradicting the thoughts behind the behavior of the financial institutions. It is found that the paper is highly relevant if an expansion of regulation is to be hindered.

scholarly journals Transatlantic trade and investment partnership (TTIP) and the spill overs effects on the Gulf – cooperation council

2017 ◽  
Vol 59 (1) ◽  
pp. 35-51
Author(s):  
Nadia Naim
Keyword(s):  
Intellectual Property ◽  
Property Rights ◽  
Intellectual Property Rights ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Global Trade ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Transatlantic Trade ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Trade And Investment ◽  
The Eu

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the transatlantic trade and investment partnership (TTIP). The EU and the USA are negotiating the TTIP, a trade agreement that aims to remove trade barriers across different economic sectors to increase trade between the EU and the USA. The TTIP will have spill over effects on the MENA region, the GCC, Australia and the Asian sub-continent, as it raises key questions for intellectual property and international trade agreements. For instance, will the USA and EU be on an equal footing or will one triumph over the other, will third party countries like the GCC states be expected to adopt new standards. Design/methodology/approach The research design is a paper and online data collection method to find literature to date on intellectual property law development in the GCC states in relation to the three research objectives as set out above. The literature is the population, and this could prove problematic. Different databases have been used to cover all sources where data can be found. Findings As the EU-USA TTIP is aiming to conclude by the end of 2015, the GCC has an opportunity to reassess its relationship with both the EU and GCC. Up until now, the GCC was able to enter into negotiations with the EU and USA relatively independently. However, where the EU and USA can agree, there will be a harmonisation of regulations. This therefore has repercussions for the GCC. The TTIP has three main aims: to increase trade and investment through market access, increase employment and competitiveness and create a harmonised approach to global trade. To harmonise global trade, the EU and USA aim to harmonise their intellectual property rights through an intellectual property rights chapter that deals specifically with enhancing protection and recognition for geographical indications, build on TRIPS and patentability. Research limitations/implications This study is non-empirical. Originality/value The TTIP will have spill over effects for the GCC, as it has yet to finalise the EU-GCC free trade agreement and USA-GCC framework agreement. The power dynamics between the USA and EU will be a deciding factor on the intellectual property chapter in the TTIP in terms of what the provisions for intellectual property will look like and what powers will be available to investors to bring investor-state-dispute settlement claims against foreign countries.

EU immigration policy prospects dim further on crisis

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Immigration Policy ◽  
Economic Effects ◽  
Individual Member ◽  
Current Crisis ◽  
Demographic Ageing ◽  
Member States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Developments ◽  
National Governments ◽  
The Eu

Subject EU immigration policy. Significance The EU has previously legislated to encourage the immigration of workers into the bloc, to counter the negative economic effects of demographic ageing. However, immigration policy is largely determined by individual member states. The results of EU pro-immigration schemes have been weak. National responses to the current influx of refugees and migrants have highlighted underlying member states differences over immigration, driven by economic, demographic and cultural divergences. Consequently, impetus for further EU pro-immigration action had largely stalled even before the current crisis. Impacts Asymmetric economic developments across the continent will continue to impede a common immigration strategy. Any opening of more legal avenues to convert asylum-seekers into economic immigrants will remain a matter for national governments. The current crisis will increase distrust and frictions among member states, while boosting populist forces. The crisis will bring into sharp relief the distinction between extra- and intra-EU immigration as a way of filling labour market gaps.

NAFTA withdrawal would have extensive economic effects

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Free Trade Agreement ◽  
Public Support ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
The United States ◽  
Economic Effects ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The North ◽  
Indirect Impacts ◽  
Deal Making

Subject Outlook for NAFTA. Significance Representatives from Canada, Mexico and the United States completed the fifth round of negotiations on modernising the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) last month. Most US opinion sees NAFTA as beneficial for the economy, but the administration of President Donald Trump is proposing increasingly unpalatable changes from Mexican and Canadian perspectives. Impacts Political developments in Mexico suggest that it will not cave in to US demands that it considers to be unreasonable. The indirect impacts of NAFTA collapse could be large; supply chain dislocation might raise prices and interest rates, dampening activity. US NAFTA withdrawal could give impetus to other countries' cooperation; Canada and Mexico are part of the ex-US Trans-Pacific Partnership. Trump could lose much public support if he withdraws from the deal, making it much more difficult to pass other legislation. Approaching elections in all three countries in 2018 will add a sense of urgency to the renegotiation process.

Support for Scottish independence is growing stronger

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Economic Impacts ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Uk Government ◽  
Scottish Independence ◽  
The Uk ◽  
First Time ◽  
The Eu ◽  
Sustained Increase

Significance For the first time, there is a sustained increase in support for Scottish independence. The main reasons include dislike of UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his cabinet north of the border, the UK government’s pursuit of a ‘hard’ Brexit and questions about its response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Impacts Soaring Scottish unemployment when the UK furlough schemes end would undermine London’s claim to be protecting Scottish jobs. Rising support for Scottish independence could prompt the UK government to seek a closer trade agreement with the EU. The UK government will be unable to conceal the economic impacts of Brexit under the economic fallout of COVID-19. A Scottish vote for independence would put huge pressure on the UK government to resign and call early elections.

EU to United Kingdom moves will fall under any Brexit

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Immigration Policy ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Real Wages ◽  
Reduced Pressure ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Freedom Of Movement ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Eu

Subject UK immigration outlook. Significance Under most Brexit scenarios, freedom of movement between the United Kingdom and the EU-27 will end in December 2020. This will require the United Kingdom radically to reform its immigration policy, both towards EU citizens and, to a lesser extent, non-EU citizens. Impacts Immigration reductions will have a small negative impact on UK public finances, even considering the reduced pressure on public services. There will be some increase in non-EU migration, especially of relatively well-paid workers. There may be some upward pressure on wages in specific sectors, although the overall impact on real wages is likely to be small. A change of prime minister may reduce immigration policy restrictiveness, mitigating the impact without altering the direction of travel.

Unstable politics may make trade deals uncertain

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Services ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
National Elections ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Ideological Divergence ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Trade Deals ◽  
Trade Partners ◽  
The Eu

Subject Politics and trade talks. Significance Understanding the factors that determine how long trade negotiations take will help businesses navigate the uncertainty, as the UK government prepares to negotiate trade agreements once it leaves the EU. The Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) between Canada and the EU took seven years to finalise. Less comprehensive renegotiations of international agreements can be shorter, including the US-Mexico-Canada agreement, which took less than two years. Impacts UK sectors highly exposed to the EU or United States, including automotive and financial services, face prolonged investment uncertainty. Timing of national elections, lobbying and the ideological divergence between trade partners will determine post-Brexit trade deal talks. Continued polarisation of major economies' electorates will delay or stop other global deals, including on foreign aid and climate change.

EU-UK FTA leaves open the prospect of future conflict

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Free Trade ◽  
Free Trade Agreement ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Trade Flows ◽  
Member States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Eu

Significance The agreement offers zero quotas and tariffs on most goods, but there is little coverage on services while trade flows face disruption from significant non-tariff barriers. Impacts The deal will make it slightly easier to reach a UK-US free trade agreement, though strong divisions remain. The strict conditionality associated with the FTA suggests Euroscepticism will remain an important feature of UK politics. The process and costs associated with Brexit makes it less likely that Eurosceptic member states will attempt to leave the EU.

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