Peaceful Venezuela protest takes momentum from Maduro

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Situation ◽  
Diplomatic Relations ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Media ◽  
Popular Support ◽  
The Government ◽  
Run Up

Significance The opposition Democratic Unity Movement (MUD) convened the national protest to pressure the National Electoral Council (CNE) to bring forward the next phase of the recall referendum process against President Nicolas Maduro from October 24 as currently scheduled. Recourse to street mobilisation comes amid a further deterioration of the economic situation and eroding popular support for the government. Impacts The government's crackdown against opposition figures in the run-up to the demonstration will further strain diplomatic relations. If further opposition protests remain peaceful, they will intensify pressure on Maduro. A new round of demonstrations will refocus international media and political attention on the country.

Holding banks to account for the financial crisis?

2015 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
pp. 45-69
Author(s):  
Oonagh Anne McDonald
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Housing Policy ◽  
Careful Analysis ◽  
Careful Examination ◽  
Department Of Justice ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Federal Housing ◽  
The Usa ◽  
The Government ◽  
Run Up

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the ways in which the USA has sought to hold the leading banks to account for the financial crisis and to asses the validity of the methods used. This is the first of two articles which looks at the basis of the Complaints against the banks and the settlements which led to the imposition of large fines on the banks. Design/methodology/approach – The paper first provides an account of the government housing policy from 1995 to 2008 and argues that the cases brought against the banks and then at the legal basis of the charges. The methodology consists of a careful examination of the documentary evidence and an analysis of the changes in the relevant laws used by the Department of Justice when bringing charges against the banks. Findings – The paper concludes that both the basis of the cases against the banks and the purpose of large fines are open to question. Research limitations/implications – Much of the information is available. However, as the major cases against the large banks did not go the court, and the basis of the fines is a settlement between the bank and the Department of Justice, each fine is supported by a relatively brief “Statement of the Facts”. The evidence amassed by subpoenas issued by the Department of Justice is not tested in court. Practical implications – Much greater consideration must be given to more effective ways of holding banks and especially senior executives to account. Social implications – The imposition of large fines does not satisfy the public desire to see that justice is done. Such fines imposed on the ban are not likely to change bank behaviour. Originality/value – Its originality lies in setting out an account of government housing policy and its role in the run-up to the financial crisis. No one has carried out a careful analysis of the cases against the large banks brought by the Department of Justice and, in the second article, by the Federal Housing Finance Agency.

Was there a regulatory approval market for mortgages?

2015 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 354-365
Author(s):  
Peggy Crawford ◽  
Joetta Forsyth
Keyword(s):  
House Price ◽  
Underserved Area ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Community Needs ◽  
Fannie Mae ◽  
The Usa ◽  
The Government ◽  
Run Up ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
Freddie Mac

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine whether the underserved area requirements for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (the government-sponsored enterprises [GSEs]) and the community needs requirements of the Community Reinvestment Act (CRA) contributed to the house price run-up in the USA. Design/methodology/approach – This paper predicts the incidence of “Rebounds”, which indicate that a mortgage had been previously denied, to provide evidence on whether certain regulations caused excessively risky mortgage originations. As a different lender rejected the loan given the interest rate that they were willing to charge and information on the borrower, a higher incidence of Rebounds provides evidence that lenders were more frequently disagreeing about loans. This can indicate differences in regulatory pressure or oversight across lenders. Findings – This paper provides evidence that the GSEs were purchasing fewer Rebounds directly from lenders. However, evidence suggests that indirectly, the securitization market served as a conduit for Rebounds to the GSEs that needed to satisfy regulatory underserved area requirements. The necessity of complying with the CRA was found to increase Rebounds. Among regulators, the Federal Reserve was found to have been particularly associated with Rebounds. Originality/value – The paper’s contribution comes from linking Rebounds to legislative and regulatory influences. This contributes to the literature on excess credit and fraud, as well as the effect of underserved area requirements and the CRA. Also, this paper adds a new dimension to the literature on securitization, by showing the influence of regulation on the securitization of risky mortgages.

Venezuela's Maduro gains breathing space, for now

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Selection Process ◽  
Socialist Party ◽  
Bolivarian Revolution ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National Assembly ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
Popular Support ◽  
Broad Base ◽  
Breathing Space ◽  
The Government

Significance The party base of the ruling United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) began the process of nominations for primaries that will be convened in June to select candidates for the 2015 National Assembly elections. The government enters the selection process on the back of a rise in popular support catalysed by perceived US aggression and Maduro's strong anti-imperialist narrative. Impacts The broad base of the PSUV nominations process contrasts with MUD plans, fuelling doubts over MUD divisions. Chavista 'battle units' will nominate four candidates, a strategy that is boosting waning enthusiasm for the Bolivarian Revolution. The primaries process strengthens the government's commitment to the parliamentary elections, the date of which has yet to be set.

Invalid Hungarian referendum will gain Orban little

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Constitutional Amendments ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Popular Support ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Eu

Subject The Hungarian government's anti-immigration stance. Significance Prime Minister Viktor Orban and his government have been campaigning against the wave of migrants seeking refuge in Europe, and the EU's handling of the resulting crisis. The government hoped a referendum on October 2 would reject EU settlement of non-Hungarians in Hungary without parliament's consent. With a turnout of less than 50%, the referendum is null and void. Orban's Fidesz party nevertheless claimed victory, as 98.6% of those who cast a valid vote opposed relocation. Impacts The opposition to Fidesz will be able to frame the referendum as its first victory since 2010 and try to build unity on that basis. Fidesz will be unable to extend its popular support on the basis of these results. The EU is unlikely to react forcefully to constitutional amendments in Hungary, given Brexit and elections in France and Germany.

Political pressure mounts on Japanese media

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Freedom Of Expression ◽  
Press Freedom ◽  
Political Pressure ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Media ◽  
The Public ◽  
The Media ◽  
Near Term ◽  
The Government

Significance The issue of media independence has become a fraught one under Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's administration, with perceptions rising among journalists and the public that the government is subjecting the media to political pressure. Critics of the administration speak of censorship and threats to freedom of expression. Japan's ranking in the World Press Freedom Index has fallen from 22nd in 2011-12, before Abe took office, to 61st in 2015. Impacts The government seems likely to try to marginalise the criticisms of constitutional scholars, like it marginalises its other critics. International media as well as domestic journalists are likely to feel some pressure from the authorities. In the near term, the issue is unlikely to destabilise the government, or derail passage of security legislation.

Prospects for Venezuela in 2016

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Situation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National Assembly ◽  
The Government

Subject Prospects for Venezuela in 2016. Significance The conduct and results of the December 6 National Assembly elections will shape political and economic prospects in 2016. The contest will not presage stability, reform or consensus; instead, gridlock and a deepening of polarisation is expected. Amid an erosion of President Nicolas Maduro's already waning credibility, mobilisation for a recall referendum will be the focus of opposition activity. The grave economic situation will remain a background consideration for both the government and its opponents.

Nigerian banks will struggle to repeat 2017 results

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Small Businesses ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
National Elections ◽  
Treasury Bills ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Balance Sheets ◽  
Domestic Debt ◽  
The Government ◽  
Run Up

Subject Nigerian banking sector. Significance Some of Nigeria’s largest banks made significant profits in 2017 despite the country’s recession, benefitting mainly from high-yielding Nigerian Treasury Bills. This is unlikely to be repeated this year, with yields falling as the government replaces expensive domestic debt with cheaper Eurobonds, and banks attempt to shore up their balance sheets. Higher oil prices will help this process, yet many smaller banks are struggling to replicate their larger rivals' success. Impacts A restructuring of telecommunications company 9Mobile’s loan would benefit banks' non-performing loan numbers. Any uptick in Niger Delta insecurity could negatively impact banks, as most have significant loans with the upstream oil and gas sector. The CBN may issue more loans via commercial banks to small businesses and farmers in the run-up to next year's national elections.

Suriname electoral reform will boost re-election bid

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Electoral Reform ◽  
Social Spending ◽  
Legislative Elections ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Oil Development ◽  
The Government ◽  
To Come ◽  
Run Up ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject Political and economic outlook. Significance President Desi Bouterse’s government has proposed a new electoral reform designed to come into effect before the presidential and legislative elections in 2020. The reform aims to ban electoral alliances between parties, which opposition groups have argued would unfairly disadvantage smaller political parties. It represents an attempt by the Bouterse administration to shore up its position going into the 2020 elections, amid an atmosphere of popular dissatisfaction with the government. Impacts The reform would pave the way for a further NDP victory in 2020, when Bouterse will be 75 years old. The NDP will seek to maintain its legislative majority, which is likely to see a boost in social spending in the run-up to the elections. The dubious motivation behind the electoral reform is unlikely to deter investment; investors have largely priced in the NDP’s dominance. Although international influence in Suriname has waned, future interest in oil development could reverse this.

Focus of Taiwan-China diplomatic contest will change

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Common Ground ◽  
Democratic Progressive Party ◽  
Diplomatic Relations ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Sao Tome And Principe ◽  
Island State ◽  
The Government ◽  
Economic Necessity ◽  
Progressive Party

Subject Taiwan's 'diplomatic contest' with China. Significance Panama announced on June 12 that it was switching diplomatic relations from Taiwan to China, reducing the number of Taiwan’s diplomatic partners to 20. Panama is the second country to sever relations with Taipei since Tsai Ing-wen of the China-sceptic Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) became Taiwanese president in May last year. In late December, the small African island state of Sao Tome and Principe also switched recognition. Impacts Attitudes toward China in Taiwan will harden, but economic necessity will require Taipei to seek some common ground. As the next election approaches in 2020, the government will feel more pressure to be pragmatic towards China. China will be disinclined to cooperate, hoping that the China-friendly opposition will oust the current China-sceptic government.

Primary points to political instability in Argentina

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Instability ◽  
Business Environment ◽  
Vote Share ◽  
Economic Situation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
General Elections ◽  
The Government

Significance After winning over 48.2% of the national vote in the 2019 general elections, the FdT’s vote share dropped to only 31.8%. Recriminations are rife within the government, as well as disputes over how to improve the FdT’s performance in the November midterms. Impacts Despite voter doubts about both large coalitions, leftist and rightist options are gaining limited traction. The business environment will remain unfavourable amid instability and the risk of another COVID-19 wave. Radical factions within the government will lack the resources to sustain clientelistic policies in an adverse economic situation.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document