Prospects for the US economy to end-2016

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Federal Reserve ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Financial Volatility ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Eu

Subject Prospects for the US economy to end-2016. Significance A disappointing employment report for May, with only 38,000 jobs added, has fuelled speculation that the US economy may be in for a year of slowing economic growth in 2016. The Federal Reserve (Fed)'s decision on June 15 to delay further any interest rate hike only highlights that concern, which now is also exacerbated by the financial volatility induced by the United Kingdom's vote to leave the EU.

Further Mexico rate hikes likely in 2018

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Federal Reserve ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Wage Increases

Subject Monetary policy moves. Significance The Bank of Mexico (Banxico) increased its target interest rate by 25 basis points, to 7.25%, on December 14, responding to a similar move by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) the previous day. The hike was the first to be taken under new Governor Alejandro Diaz de Leon and pushes the rate to its highest level since March 2009. Impacts Tighter monetary policy will weigh on growth in 2018 and may hit the PRI’s electoral prospects. More expensive credit will hit consumption moderately, as interest rates remain relatively low by historical standards. The possibility of wage increases edging up will feed inflationary expectations.

Prospects for the US economy in 2018

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Federal Reserve ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Second World War ◽  
World War ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Third ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
The Us ◽  
Banking Committee ◽  
Second World

Subject Prospects for the US economy in 2018. Significance In 2018, US GDP should continue growing at the 2017 pace of 2.0-2.5%, and 0.2-0.3% higher if Congress can pass a tax cut. Incoming Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell yesterday gave his first testimony to the Senate Banking Committee, vowing continuity and stability in monetary policy. US economic activity has been expanding for 100 months, the third-longest expansion since 1854 and almost twice the post-Second World War average of 58 months.

The European Union oil dependency: a threat to economic growth and diplomatic freedom

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Rafael Alexis Acevedo ◽  
Maria Lorca-Susino
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
European Union ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Difficult Situation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Energy Dependency ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Data Statistics ◽  
The Eu

Purpose This paper provides a general review of the current energy dependency of the European Union (EU) and the possible threat that it poses to economic growth and diplomatic freedom. Design/methodology/approach Systematic literature review with a narrative approach to analyze historical data, statistics and energy policies and determine if the EU oil dependency represents a threat to economic growth and diplomatic freedom. In addition, a review of the US policy “America first” is also included to analyze its impact on the EU. Findings The energy dependency rate of the EU increased 12 percentage points from 1990 to 2018. Russia has become the largest oil supplier for the EU tripling Norway, the largest supplier in the 1990s. The oil dependency of the EU on Russia is a difficult situation where guaranteed energy supply and diplomatic freedom becomes a national political controversy. Even though the USA is currently a top world exporter of oil, the EU does not rely on the USA. The findings suggest that the EU needs to secure a reliable energy supplier to guarantee economic growth, reduce energy scarcity and enhance diplomatic freedom. Originality/value This paper provides a historical examination of the EU oil dependency considering its impact on economic growth and diplomatic freedom.

Low-growth economy will shape post-Obama US politics

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Federal Reserve ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Political Support ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
Government Oversight ◽  
The Us ◽  
Trade Deals ◽  
Code Reform

Significance Populist discontent with existing economic policies and anger about economic inequalities have featured in the US presidential struggle between Trump and Clinton. These anxieties have led both candidates to adopt anti-trade stances and promise growth-revitalising policies to counteract voters' pessimism about the US economy after the 2007-09 global financial crisis and ameliorate the uneven benefits of government responses. Impacts Flagging political support for new trade deals will hinder liberalisation of non-tariff barriers abroad. Immigration and tax code reform -- potential pro-growth policies -- face substantial political obstacles. Populist legislators may seek to increase government oversight of the Federal Reserve.

Prospects for the US economy in 2016

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Labour Market ◽  
Federal Reserve ◽  
Private Consumption ◽  
Full Employment ◽  
Emerging Countries ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Debt Overhang ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
The Us

Subject Prospects for the US economy in 2016. Significance The economy is close to full employment and a buoyant labour market should boost private consumption in 2016, offsetting some of the weakness in the industrial and trade sectors. Federal Reserve (Fed) officials have highlighted the external headwinds confronting the US economy from slowing growth in emerging countries and a continued debt overhang from the financial crisis.

Outlook for a future EU-US trade agreement is poor

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Trade Policy ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Member States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
The Us ◽  
Near Future ◽  
The Eu

Subject EU-US trade. Significance US President Donald Trump’s ‘America First’ trade policy threatens the highly interconnected transatlantic economy. This presents a serious challenge to the EU and certain member states more than others, and resolving this tension is unlikely in the near future. Impacts Some US protectionist trade tendencies are likely to continue post-Trump. Trump's accusations that the euro is unfairly undervalued raises the (faint) prospect of an even more profound transatlantic dispute. The importance of the US economy to European firms enables Washington to enforce secondary sanctions.

Prospects for the US economy to end-2019

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Housing Market ◽  
Labour Market ◽  
Manufacturing Sector ◽  
Financial Stress ◽  
Economic Expansion ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Third ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
The Us

Subject Prospects for the US economy to end 2019. Significance The strong US labour market and low borrowing costs for businesses and individuals are helping to sustain the decade-long economic expansion. GDP grew by more than 3% in January-March, the third quarter out of four in which it was above 3%. The lacklustre housing market, softening manufacturing sector and rising consumer financial stress may dampen economic growth in the rest of 2019, taking it to 2.3-2.5% for the year.

External factors may trigger more Mexican rate hikes

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Federal Reserve ◽  
Rate Increase ◽  
Current Account Deficit ◽  
External Factors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
Direct Trade

Significance The hike was double the 25 bp expected by most economists and took place without any similar move from the US Federal Reserve (Fed), increasing the gap between the respective rates to 375 bp. Impacts The interest rate increase will affect growth negatively, with GDP probably growing by around 2% this year. A weak peso should help to maintain the current account deficit at manageable levels. The direct trade impact of Brexit on Mexico will be marginal but any new bilateral deals will be on hold until after UK-EU exit talks.

Hungary is unprepared for normalised monetary policy

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Central Europe ◽  
Federal Reserve ◽  
Sharp Increase ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Financial Conditions ◽  
Equity Funds

Significance The MNB is bucking the trend of tighter monetary policy across Central Europe by increasing its range of unconventional tools to keep financial conditions loose. This is despite robust economic growth and a sharp increase in wages which threaten to put upward pressure on inflation. Impacts Despite the recent turmoil in financial markets, ‘hunt for yield’ is keeping flows to EM bond and equity funds firmly in positive territory. Brent crude has risen by 12% since early February, driven by mounting geopolitical tensions and signs of producers sticking to supply cuts. The new US Federal Reserve chairman has projected faster-than-anticipated interest rate increases in 2019 and 2020. This will increase the scope for further volatility in markets.

Central Europe's slow rate rises will aim at growth

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Federal Reserve ◽  
Slow Rate ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Equity Funds ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
The Eu

Significance The MNB’s first rate rise in a decade responds to headline inflation rising to the highest rate in the EU. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) decision to bring forward raising interest rates to 2023 is putting emerging market (EM) assets under increasing strain and heaping pressure on Central Europe’s central banks to begin tightening. Impacts Capital markets’ ‘hunt for yield’ will bolster EM bond and equity funds despite concerns about the Fed’s withdrawal of stimulus. The vast majority of investors are behaving as if the current surge in inflation will prove transitory. A sharp deterioration in sentiment may follow if price pressures last longer than expected. Brent crude’s rise to its highest level since October 2018, despite the recent rally in the US dollar, will fuel inflationary pressures.

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