Papua New Guinea economy set to 'muddle down'

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Papua New Guinea ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
New Guinea ◽  
Government Budget ◽  
Content Type ◽  
History Of ◽  
The Government ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject The political and economic outlook for Papua New Guinea. Significance Despite combined GDP growth of nearly 20% over the last two years, the fall in commodity prices has exposed the downside risks in the government's economic strategy and seriously damaged its political credibility. A government cash crisis driven by a 20% fall in expected revenues in 2015 is fracturing the country's politics. Papua New Guinea (PNG) has a history of getting through crises, although this has usually involved a changing of the prime minister and an IMF programme. Impacts The government budget crisis and foreign exchange shortages will hurt growth in 2016. There is a risk of forced sale of foreign-owned businesses and land. Foreign exchange shortages may be the greatest risk to businesses.

Papua New Guinea may encounter 'resource curse'

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Papua New Guinea ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Resource Curse ◽  
New Guinea ◽  
Business Environment ◽  
Asia Pacific ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Recent Policy ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject The economic outlook for Papua New Guinea. Significance Rating agency Moody’s on March 23 shifted Papua New Guinea (PNG) to 'negative watch', a further indication of the economic challenges facing the re-elected Peter O’Neill government as it prepares to host the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in November this year. PNG in February suffered its largest earthquake for nearly a century in areas surrounding the largest resource projects in the country. Impacts Despite a planned major expansion in LNG production, recent policy decisions suggest a troubled business environment. Reversals in economic policy, combined with the earthquake, will further depress GDP growth. Prime Minister Peter O’Neill is weaving together a large coalition which should cement his position until at least after APEC. Foreign exchange shortages will harm growth and discourage investment, due to fears that firms cannot pay dividends to foreign shareholders.

Political instability will worsen in Papua New Guinea

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
University Students ◽  
Papua New Guinea ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
New Guinea ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Ethnic Tensions ◽  
Investment Opportunities ◽  
Port Moresby ◽  
International Financing

Subject The outlook for politics and security in Papua New Guinea. Significance The police shooting of unarmed university students in the capital, Port Moresby, on June 8 has reverberated around the country, with ethnic tensions emerging in other campuses and growing discontent at Prime Minister Peter O'Neill's actions and those of the police. Behind the violence are growing political frustrations. Sovereign and political risk has increased as O'Neill is not perceived as responding appropriately to accusations of corruption and economic mismanagement. Impacts Unrest will cause minor disruptions to businesses, but the police and army will keep discontent under control. Nationalistic land, agriculture and business policies may reduce investment opportunities, except for well-connected large investors. The uncertainty has diminished prospects of international financing to ease government cash and foreign exchange shortages.

Investors will face more scrutiny in Papua New Guinea

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Papua New Guinea ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
New Guinea ◽  
Policy Formulation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Change Of Direction ◽  
Finance Minister ◽  
Take Back ◽  
The Government

Subject The political outlook for Papua New Guinea under a new government. Significance Legislators have elected former Finance Minister James Marape as prime minister. He replaces Peter O’Neill, who resigned ahead of a no-confidence vote. Marape has promised to “take back the economy” and a “change of direction” in handling major resource extraction projects to achieve better returns for the government and people. Impacts The change in leadership may result in better governance and more consultation on policy formulation. Dealing with disgruntled landowner groups poses real problems for resource project management. The country will remain heavily dependent on foreign investment in resource projects, particularly mining, oil and gas.

Papua New Guinea investment climate deteriorates

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
Papua New Guinea ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
New Guinea ◽  
Investment Climate ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate ◽  
The Government ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject Political and economic outlook for Papua New Guinea. Significance Papua New Guinea (PNG) has benefitted from over a decade of buoyant economic growth, culminating in a forecast GDP growth rate of 15% in 2015. However, the outlook for PNG's major commodity exports (natural gas and gold) is now declining as aggregate demand for resources falls in China and elsewhere in the region. This will lead to a fall in the growth of overall government revenues. Impacts The price for spot market liquefied natural gas exports to Asia is likely to decline. The government will extend its overall fiscal deficit despite announced intentions to reduce debt under the medium-term fiscal strategy. The much-publicised sovereign wealth fund, announced several times but still not implemented, will continue to languish. Diversifying agriculture and fisheries to provide more options for disadvantaged rural populations and SME development will be slow. Foreign investment in PNG will slow down, particularly in gold, copper and other areas of mining.

Papua New Guinea politics will enter brittle stability

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Natural Gas ◽  
Papua New Guinea ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
New Guinea ◽  
Liquefied Natural Gas ◽  
Infrastructure Investment ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Cost

Subject The outlook for politics and the economy in Papua New Guinea. Significance Prime Minister Peter O’Neill has consolidated his government since winning elections in mid-2017. However, economic growth in Papua New Guinea (PNG) has slowed, forcing the government to rein in its spending plans. A 19-billion-dollar liquefied natural gas (LNG) project has not generated the expected fiscal windfall, with most of the revenue still needed to repay the cost of the earlier infrastructure investment. Impacts Links with China are likely to strengthen after President Xi Jinping's visit next month. O'Neill will consolidate his position through the courts and police. Bougainville cannot afford independence unless it can negotiate with mining firms to reopen the Panguna copper mine.

Insecurity and drought undermine Madagascar president

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Southern African Development Community ◽  
Political Elite ◽  
The Political ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
African Development ◽  
The Government

Significance Rifts within the political elite are deepening, evidenced by the departure of former Prime Minister Jean Ravelonarivo -- and his cabinet -- last month. However, the installation of a new administration does not portend stability. Impacts The central bank's decision to cut its benchmark interest rate to 8.3% from 8.7% will facilitate borrowing by firms and households. This is unlikely to boost GDP growth given the countervailing effects of political volatility and low commodity prices. The UN secretary general's appeal (on an official trip earlier this month) for the government to tackle graft is unlikely to be heeded. If Madagascar experiences another coup, the Southern African Development Community bloc will likely expel it -- again.

Budget woes will slow Canada's hard power build-up

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Global Governance ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
White Paper ◽  
Foreign Affairs ◽  
House Of Commons ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Hard Power ◽  
Core Elements ◽  
History Of ◽  
The Government

Significance Ahead of the rollout of the Liberal government’s new defence white paper, Minister of Foreign Affairs Chrystia Freeland delivered a speech in the House of Commons arguing that Canada’s membership of NATO and history of peacekeeping are core elements of its internationalist foreign policy. The government of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau wishes to finance greater Canadian involvement in multilateral security missions and institutions of liberal global governance. Impacts Defence issues are not politically salient to Canadian voters, but government backtracking on policy is. High polling support for peacekeeping would probably evaporate in the event of Canadian losses abroad. Operational setbacks could see Trudeau’s Liberals bleed support to their New Democratic and Conservative rivals.

Papua New Guinea's economy is set to weaken

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
Papua New Guinea ◽  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
New Guinea ◽  
Macroeconomic Policy ◽  
Gas Oil ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Investor Confidence ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject The economic outlook for Papua New Guinea. Significance The outlook for the leading commodity exports from Papua New Guinea (PNG) -- natural gas, oil and gold -- remains positive, but by most counts the economy is deteriorating and will worsen as Asia’s aggregate demand for resource commodities falls. Impacts The new government may pass legislation to obtain higher returns to PNG from foreign investment. Perceived corruption and declining governance will directly damage investor confidence. As financial and economic pressures mount, there may well be changes in macroeconomic policy.

scholarly journals Standoff in Papua New Guinea: Students take issue over corruption

2016 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
pp. 13
Author(s):  
Emily Matasororo
Keyword(s):  
Civil Society ◽  
Papua New Guinea ◽  
News Media ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
New Guinea ◽  
Tertiary Student ◽  
University Of Technology ◽  
The Government ◽  
The University ◽  
Port Moresby

Commentary: A widespread student national boycott of classes and protests against the government of Peter O’Neill in Papua New Guinea during May and June 2016, supported by many civil society groups and activists. The epicentre of these protests was the University of Papua New Guinea (UPNG) in the nation's capital, Port Moresby. Demonstrations stirred by allegations of corruption against Prime Minister O'Neill grew in intensity until police opened fire on peaceful protesters on June 8. The protests were largely organised by the elected UPNG Student Representative Council, which entered into alliances with other tertiary student bodies, especially at the University of Technology in Lae, and civil society groups such as UPNG Focus and the Community Coalition Against Corruption. The essential argument of the students was that instead of thwarting investigations into allegations that $30 million of fraudulent legal bills were paid to the legal firm Paraka Lawyers, O’Neill should resign from office and present himself to the police investigators for questioning as they had demanded. This article focuses on the student leadership’s role and critiques the coverage of two major national press outlets, the PNG Post-Courier and The National, leading to the temporary shutdown of the university. It argues that there were issues of ethics and integrity at stake with both students and the news media.

Papua New Guinea: Volatile but Coupless

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
R.J. May
Keyword(s):  
Papua New Guinea ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
New Guinea ◽  
Military Force ◽  
Peace Agreement ◽  
Internal Security ◽  
The Government ◽  
Security Operations ◽  
Civilian Authority ◽  
The Military

Before Papua New Guinea’s independence in 1975, its military consisted of a Pacific Island Regiment under the Australian Army’s Northern Command. In preparation for independence, there was considerable debate over whether the independent country should have a military force. Provision was made for the Papua New Guinea Defence Force (PNGDF) in the constitution, with a strong emphasis on the supremacy of the civilian authority. In the first decade of independence, the PNGDF was called out to assist police in internal security operations, but the priority of its role in internal security was not officially recognized until 1991. The deployment of the PNGDF to Bougainville to assist police in operations against what became the separatist Bougainville Revolutionary Army involved a heavy commitment of troops to a long-running conflict and was marked by a number of confrontations between the military and political leaders. This culminated in the Sandline affair, in which the PNGDF commander stepped in to terminate a contract between the government and the military consultants Sandline International and called on the prime minister to resign (but did not attempt to take over the government). After the Sandline affair and with the Bougainville Peace Agreement, relations between government and military improved, but several incidents involving PNGDF personnel led Prime Minister Morauta to speak of a “culture of instability” within the PNGDF and to invite a review by a Commonwealth Eminent Persons Group. Confrontations between the military and government, however, have consistently stopped short of attempted coup. The most plausible explanation for this may lie in the localized, competitive, and fractious nature of political power in Papua New Guinea, the absence of a dominant ethnic group, and the difficulties that even a legitimate, elected government has in maintaining law and order and service delivery across the country.

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