Russia is expanding its military options in Syria

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Military Training ◽  
Armed Forces ◽  
Active Role ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Military Support ◽  
Russian Military ◽  
State Group

Subject Russia's diversified military capacity in Syria. Significance Russian armed forces played an active role in the Syrian government's recapture of Palmyra in March, despite the partial withdrawal of Russian aircraft from Syria. As well as air strikes, months of Russian military training and arms deliveries enhanced the Syrian army's combat capacity, contributing to a rapid collapse of Islamic State group (ISG) resistance. The operation showed how Russia has widened the instruments available: it can scale conventional air strikes up or down, provide fire support from helicopters or artillery, and use these elements to compensate for deficiencies in the Syrian military, while supplying weaponry, training and coordination to local forces. Impacts Russian military support can ensure the Syrian regime's survival, but that will require a long-term presence. The recapture of Aleppo would constitute a near fatal blow to the Syrian rebel movement. The Russian military will learn lessons about weaponry and coordination from the Syrian operation. Elements of these lessons including control of proxy forces may be applied in future foreign interventions. The use of mercenaries, trialled in Syria, offers Moscow a useful and deniable instrument abroad.

Iran regional policy will bolster IRGC political power

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Armed Forces ◽  
Military Force ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Military Operations ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Profile ◽  
Defence Budget ◽  
Syrian Civil War ◽  
The Government ◽  
State Group

Significance Iran's armed forces have suffered a number of high-profile casualties in Syria and Iraq in recent weeks. General Mohammad Ali Allah-Dadi was killed in an Israeli airstrike inside Syria in January, while General Hamid Taqavi was killed by the Islamic State group (ISG) in Iraq in late December. Taqavi was the highest-ranking officer to be killed since the Iran-Iraq war ended in 1988. Both men were members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), Iran's elite military force that conducts all of Tehran's military operations outside the country's borders. As rising instability threatens Iran's interests, the IRGC has stepped up its deployment across the region, raising the risk of military overstretch. Meanwhile, on the domestic front, the IRGC is at loggerheads with the government of President Hassan Rouhani as nuclear negotiations approach their next deadline. Impacts IRGC dominance in Tehran policy-making will prevent any wider rapprochement with Washington. Resolution to the Syrian civil war will require regional political agreement involving Iran. Tensions with Saudi Arabia are at risk of further escalation. Demands on the defence budget will increase, raising fiscal strain on government.

Kyrgyzstan security agency will struggle with threat

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
State Committee ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
Political Role ◽  
State Security ◽  
Eurasian Economic Union ◽  
Economic Union ◽  
Russian Military ◽  
State Group

Subject Counterterrorism in Kyrgyzstan. Significance Kyrgyzstan will hold parliamentary elections on October 4. While President Almazbek Atambayev's party is expected to perform well, concern is growing regarding the security situation in the country. A terrorist incident in July that state security officials have claimed as having links with the Islamic State group (ISG) means that Kyrgyzstan's State Committee for National Security (GKNB) has been presented with an opportunity to assert its role. However, the growing risk of instability will also be a serious test for the agency's capabilities. Impacts GKNB influence will grow if instability increases and it will retain its positon as the main security body. The agency's political role means that it has little incentive to reform at present. Eurasian Economic Union membership will draw Bishkek closer to Moscow's economic woes and could increase domestic tensions. A security crisis in Kyrgyzstan would add considerable strain to Russian military commitments in Ukraine, Syria and Tajikistan.

Middle East Islamist movements fragment under pressure

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Islam ◽  
The Political ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Term Stability ◽  
Sudden Rise ◽  
The One ◽  
State Group ◽  
Islamist Movements

Significance Almost two years on from Morsi's removal from office in 2013 mainstream Islamist movements in the region find themselves caught between an authoritarian crackdown led by Egypt and the Gulf on the one hand, and the sudden rise of Islamic State group (ISG) on the other. With political participation discredited, these two pressures are forcing Muslim Brotherhood-inspired movements to revise ideology and strategy as they compete to maintain and expand their constituencies. Impacts Mainstream Islamists will remain a significant political force in the region, but take years to regroup. Long-term stability will depend on allowing non-violent Islamists access to the political sphere. Younger Islamists will be increasingly attracted to radical ideologies. Egypt's slide into a more oppressive police state will continue. Saudi Arabia has put aside differences with Qatar and Turkey over political Islam for now -- but the dispute could resurface.

Central African Republic's path to peace will be rocky

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central African Republic ◽  
Armed Forces ◽  
Armed Groups ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Communal Violence ◽  
Un Peacekeeping ◽  
Military Support ◽  
Russian Military ◽  
The Military ◽  
The Eu

Subject Central African Republic's peace process. Significance President Faustin Archange Touadera’s government has been bolstered by Russian military support, with UN peacekeepers and the EU helping the state to re-establish a presence in provincial areas and African mediators drawing some armed groups into dialogue. Nevertheless, the Central African Republic (CAR) remains trapped in a profound crisis that will be difficult to escape. Impacts The retirement of 829 armed forces personnel could make room for former rebel fighters to be integrated into the military. Despite progress in rebuilding the judicial system, this is unlikely quickly to deter human rights violators on all sides. Sectarian factions in Bangui may stir new inter-communal violence and clashes with UN peacekeeping troops.

Ideological divisions will drive jihadist rivalry

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Current Lead ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Term Survival ◽  
Long Term Survival ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Islamic Tradition ◽  
Ideological Differences ◽  
State Group

Subject Ideological divisions between Islamic State group and al-Qaida. Significance Islamic State group (ISG) and al-Qaida are both rooted in the same ideology, namely jihadi-salafism, which draws heavily on the Islamic tradition native to Saudi Arabia known as Wahhabism. However, fundamental ideological differences exist between the two rival groups, contributing to their acrimonious split in February 2014. Ideology underlies their divergent strategies and priorities, and will play a key part in determining which one wins the battle for supremacy of the global jihadist movement. Impacts Reconciliation is highly unlikely, but tactical cooperation will still occur on the ground. Sectarian attacks will increase, raising perceptions of a regional Sunni-Shia war. Competition for leadership of the global jihad could see both groups attempt attacks on Western targets. Military setbacks could narrow ISG's current lead over al-Qaida in terms of popularity and profile. Al-Qaida's more conciliatory and accommodative approach to local groups may mean it has greater prospects of long-term survival than ISG.

Chechen leader campaigns for funds and re-election

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
Armed Forces ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
North Caucasus ◽  
Special Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Human Rights Abuses ◽  
The North ◽  
State Group ◽  
Unique Status

Subject Kadyrov's attacks on the Russian opposition. Significance After making a series of open threats against Russian opposition figures, Chechen President Ramzan Kadyrov recently claimed to have sent special forces to Syria to spy on Islamic State group (ISG) and guide Russian air strikes. Chechnya has unique status among Russia's regions and republics. In return for holding down the security situation, Kadyrov controls armed forces not subordinated to Moscow, introduces rules that would be unlawful elsewhere and enjoys impunity for numerous human rights abuses attributed to his men. Impacts Kadyrov will try to build a reputation as zealous defender of Russia against domestic and foreign enemies. While portraying himself as Moscow's indispensable ally in the North Caucasus, Kadyrov will not seek alliances with neighbouring regions. Further outspoken comments will alarm national and regional elites in Russia, but will not bring censure from Putin.

Islamic State will intensify global operations

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Extremist Groups ◽  
Military Support ◽  
State Group ◽  
Global Operations

Significance Islamic State group (ISG) claimed responsibility for the attacks. Nearly two years since its June 2014 offensive in Syria and Iraq, ISG still controls and governs significant territory. The organisation is preparing for a prolonged fight within those countries and has also scaled its efforts globally, gaining regional affiliates and launching increasingly sophisticated international attacks. Impacts ISG will use its territory in Iraq and Syria to support jihadists abroad, helping them to launch more frequent and sophisticated attacks. ISG efforts to provoke conflict will create opportunities for it and other extremist groups, particularly al-Qaida, to gain support. Uncoordinated Western military support to anti-ISG groups in Libya will likely prolong its civil war, enabling ISG's continued growth.

Russia's Syria intervention will empower jihadists

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Middle East ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Security Threat ◽  
The West ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Rebel Groups ◽  
Military Presence ◽  
Military Support ◽  
State Group

Significance Russia is primarily attacking the Syrian opposition, forcing rebel groups to rely more heavily on Syrian al-Qaida-affiliated Jabhat al-Nusra (JN) for military support. Meanwhile, Russia is launching relatively few strikes on Islamic State group (ISG), which is emphasising its hostility towards Russia in order to recruit, and to advance militarily. Impacts Russia's escalation will prolong Syria's civil war for several years, thereby promoting further radicalisation. Its continuation will ensure numerous extremist groups, including ISG, retain sanctuary in Syria. Russia will use ISG-linked terrorist attacks in the West to justify its expanded military presence in the Middle East. ISG will likely increase efforts to develop regional affiliates to gain strategic resilience. Russia will increase its leverage internationally, even as it exacerbates the security threat posed by ISG and al-Qaida.

Demobilisation will be a long-term challenge in Libya

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Armed Forces ◽  
Armed Groups ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Near Term ◽  
The Many ◽  
Financial Arrangements

Significance Although a ceasefire has been in place since October 2020, very little has been done during that time to integrate or demobilise the many armed forces and groups that exist across the country. The obstacles are formidable. Impacts Significant demobilisation and reintegration will not happen in the near term. Local security will continue to rest on fragile political and financial arrangements between armed groups and governing authorities. The current high levels of oil and gas revenue will tend to discourage unrest.

scholarly journals High death rate of older persons from COVID-19 in Quebec (Canada) long-term care facilities: chronology and analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Marie Beaulieu ◽  
Julien Cadieux Genesse ◽  
Kevin St-Martin
Keyword(s):  
Older Persons ◽  
Excess Mortality ◽  
Long Term Care ◽  
Human Resources Management ◽  
Armed Forces ◽  
Term Care ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Canadian Armed Forces ◽  
Care Facilities

Purpose Among the ten Canadian provinces, Quebec has experienced the most significant excess mortality of older persons during COVID-19. This practice paper aims to present the chronology of events leading to this excess mortality in long-term care facilities (LTCFs) and a comprehensive analysis of the phenomenon. Design/methodology/approach Documented content from three official sources: daily briefings by the Quebec Premier, a report from the Canadian Armed Forces and a report produced by Royal Society of Canada experts were analysed. Findings Two findings emerge: the lack of preparation in LTCFs and a critical shortage of staff. Indeed, the massive transfer of older persons from hospitals to LTCFs, combined with human resources management and a critical shortage of permanent staff before and during the crisis, generates unhealthy living conditions in LTCFs. Originality/value To our knowledge, this paper is the first to analyse official Quebec and Canadian statements concerning COVID-19 from the angle of quality of life and protection of older adults in LTCFs.

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