West may help resolve Macedonia's political impasse

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Bargaining Power ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
The Political ◽  
National Unity ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Social Democratic ◽  
Eu Countries

Significance Opposition Social Democratic Alliance (SDSM) supporters are angry with the president's unexpected pardon for all those being investigated for involvement in Macedonia's wiretapping scandal, which disproportionately benefits officials of the ruling Internal Macedonian Revolutionary Organisation-Democratic Party for Macedonian National Unity (VMRO-DPMNE). The pardon coincided with the VMRO-DPMNE speaker of parliament fixing early elections for June 5 and the VMRO-DPMNE caretaker prime minister, Emil Dimitriev, annulling key decisions (including personnel appointments) of the SDSM's interior and labour ministers. Parliament had been dissolved in April over SDSM objections, which retaliated by boycotting the elections. Impacts All influential players at home and abroad have a vested interest in a workable compromise despite Macedonian brinkmanship and rhetoric. Deep political divisions within the ethnic majority will increase the role of minority Albanian politicians. This will improve minority bargaining power both domestically and internationally. VMRO-DPMNE and SDSM agree on the migrant issue and have the support of interested EU countries. Macedonia's borders will, therefore, be vigorously protected despite the political crisis.

Opposition boycott tactics are destabilising Albania

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Institutions ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Socialist Party ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
The Political ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Eu Integration

Significance The governing Socialist Party (PSSh) under Prime Minister Edi Rama is expected to win again. This implies policy continuity by what has hitherto been a successful reformist government. However, the decision by the opposition Democratic Party (PDSh) to boycott the elections creates significant uncertainty about the process and aftermath. Impacts PDSh’s boycott of parliament is blocking the completion of judicial reforms that require approval by a two-thirds majority of deputies. A PDSh boycott of elections would constitute a failure of political institutions and halt Albania’s progress towards EU integration. Disenfranchising a large constituency would escalate the political crisis and could lead PDSh supporters to resort to violence.

Albanian crisis will hold off reform needed for EU

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Democratic Party ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Business Environment ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
The Political ◽  
Local Elections ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Work Abroad ◽  
The Eu ◽  
Political Battle

Significance In the political battle between Prime Minister Edi Rama and President Ilir Meta, parliament -- which is dominated by Rama’s Socialist Party (PS) -- wants to impeach the president following his attempt to cancel the June 30 local elections. Meta’s move was prompted by the decision of the main opposition parties, including the centre-right Democratic Party (PD), to boycott the poll. Impacts Failure to resolve the political crisis will delay the opening of Albania’s accession talks with the EU. The political uncertainty will dampen economic growth, which slowed markedly in the first quarter of 2019. A deteriorating business environment will weaken foreign direct investment inflows. If economic performance remains subdued, it could result in more Albanian migrants seeking work abroad.

Romanian protests will invigorate pro-reform forces

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Democratic Party ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The Political ◽  
Social Democratic Party ◽  
Checks And Balances ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Social Democratic ◽  
East European ◽  
Political Landscape ◽  
Dominant Parties

Subject The political fallout from anti-government demonstrations. Significance Popular protests unprecedented in size since the restoration of democracy in 1990 have forced a major government retreat. On February 5, Prime Minister Sorin Grindeanu withdrew emergency decrees intended to decriminalise corruption offences and pardon politicians convicted of graft. The ruling Social Democratic Party (PSD) is struggling to adapt to the much-altered political landscape. Impacts Fears that Romania is following an East European pattern where dominant parties dismantle checks and balances will be quieted for now. Iohannis’s boldness in the crisis will make him a strong counterweight to the PSD. Reforms designed to clean up politics will be buttressed by the commitment of Romania’s main Western allies.

Thai charter vote foreshadows post-transition politics

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Democratic Party ◽  
Political System ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Status Quo ◽  
The Political ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
Authoritarian State ◽  
The Status ◽  
The Military

Subject Outlook for the post-transition political system. Significance The August 7 constitutional referendum will be conducted under tightened controls on political organisation, making a 'yes' vote more likely. Although the Democratic Party criticises the draft for its attempt to return Thailand to a semi-authoritarian state, efforts by deposed former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra's 'red-shirt' supporters to organise protests offer the only real opposition to the junta's plan. This struggle foreshadows the political system that is likely to emerge after the next parliamentary elections. Impacts Regulatory risk to investors post-transition would be limited: the military, the Democrats and the PTP are pro-business. China will not alter the status quo in its Thai relations, but will need to invest in building ties with the next monarch. Washington will tolerate most eventualities, except a violent crackdown against the military's opponents.

Disparate new Montenegrin government looks fragile

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Democratic Party ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The Political ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Landscape

Significance Decades of one-party rule by the Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) ended at the August 30 elections, which delivered a stinging rebuke to veteran strongman Milo Djukanovic. For 30 years he has dominated the political landscape, alternating between the roles of prime minister and president, occasionally exercising power from behind the scenes. Impacts Brussels in particular will seek reassurance that the new government will adhere to Djukanovic’s generally pro-Western line. The election shows that, contrary to external assessments, democracy is alive in Montenegro and even a long-standing autocrat can be ousted. Despite its leaders’ protestations, the coalition’s composition suggests a closer relationship with Serbia and Russia. The change from the familiar Djukanovic regime with its favoured client links can be expected to weaken FDI, already reduced by COVID-19. Attacks on Bosniaks in Montenegro may lead to demonstrations by co-religionists in Bosnia, destabilising an inherently unstable country.

Radical opposition could form next Kosovo government

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Ethnic Minority ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
War Crimes ◽  
The Political ◽  
Coalition Government ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Future ◽  
Persistent Poverty

Subject New coalition government. Significance Three months on from early elections, Kosovo has a new coalition government comprising the incumbent Democratic Party of Kosovo (PDK), the Alliance for the Future of Kosovo (AAK), the Initiative for Kosovo (Nisma), the New Kosovo Alliance (AKR) and Srpska List, headed by Prime Minister and AAK leader Ramush Haradinaj. Its prospects for survival are not good. Impacts Excluding Vetevendosje from government may bring further unrest, motivated by persistent poverty and anger with the political establishment. Serbia has charged Haradinaj with war crimes; his appointment will therefore complicate relations between Prishtina and Belgrade. Kosovo’s dynamics will have read-across in Macedonia, where the second-largest party has also gained power with ethnic minority support.

Tunisia Nidaa divisions will benefit Ennahda in 2019

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
The Political ◽  
Coalition Government ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Coalition Partner ◽  
Government Coalition

Significance Negotiations between coalition government parties and other major political players to agree on a new document outlining the government’s path forward (the ‘Carthage II Agreement’) stalled in late May over whether to replace Prime Minister Youssef Chahed and reshuffle the cabinet. A faction of the ruling Nidaa Tounes party led by its executive chairman, Hafedh Essebsi (son of Tunisia’s President Beji Caid Essebsi), called for the dismissal of the prime minister, who is also from Nidaa Tounes. Nidaa’s government coalition partner, the Islamist Ennahda, opposed the move. Impacts Insecurity over the government’s future will complicate key economic and security reforms. The political crisis will deter foreign investment. Friction between rival Nidaa Tounes factions will weaken popular confidence in politics.

Prospects for Israel in 2020

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
The Political ◽  
National Unity ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Scene

Subject Prospects for Israel in 2020. Significance The political scene is currently in deadlock after a second inconclusive election in September; Benny Gantz, leader of the opposition Blue and White alliance, currently has the mandate to form the next coalition after incumbent Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu failed. Talks are ongoing around how to form a national unity government.

Moldovan political crisis heralds possible snap poll

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
The Political ◽  
International Organisations ◽  
National Scale ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Mayoral Elections ◽  
International Pressure

Significance This follows the June 12 resignation of Prime Minister Chiril Gaburici, after his alleged misleading of parliament about his educational record. His resignation culminates a short but troubled time in office, dominated by the repercussions of a damaging banking scandal that has cost Moldova 1 billion dollars. Despite their strong showing in the June 14 local and mayoral elections, Moldova's pro-EU parties may struggle to replicate their success on a national scale and -- importantly -- to form a robust future coalition. Impacts As Moldova remains too weak to assert its role in the Transnistria crisis, the breakaway province will remain firmly under Russian control. International organisations may suspend the introduction of new assistance programmes until the political crisis has been resolved. International pressure on Chisinau to find those responsible for the missing 1 billion dollars will grow and protests could escalate.

Kyrgyz president's ally is likely to succeed him

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Party ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
Coalition Building ◽  
The Political ◽  
Social Democratic Party ◽  
Presidential Power ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Social Democratic ◽  
Single Term ◽  
Strong Contender

Significance The incumbent president, Almazbek Atambayev, is stepping aside as his single term is expiring. Jeenbekov is a strong contender as he comes from the president's Social Democratic Party of Kyrgyzstan (SDPK), but other leading politicians have reasonable chances in the October polls. Impacts This will be only the second democratic handover of presidential power anywhere in Central Asia; Atambayev's 2011 election was the first. The SDPK has presided over politics since 2010 but its continued dominance is less certain, although it is adept at coalition-building. Signs of fractures in SDPK and Ata-Jurt point to shifts in the political party landscape, affecting the parliamentary process.

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