Malaysian opposition grouping unlikely to oust Najib

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil Society ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
State Level ◽  
The State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Opposition Parties

Subject Cooperative measures among Malaysian opposition parties and civil society groups. Significance A grouping of opposition critics of Prime Minister Najib Razak's government has announced a series of 'roadshow' protests including a public 'Save Malaysia' protest meeting on March 28, to be attended by various leading political figures. This follows the March 4 signing of the Citizens' Declaration, the latest challenge to Najib and his government in the wake of the 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB) controversy. Impacts The government will probably permit protests for now, to gauge their degree of support. The Save Malaysia group will seek thousands of public signatories of the Declaration. Political proxy fighting at the state level could unnerve investors.

Mongolia mine move raises nationalisation fears

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Public Support ◽  
The State ◽  
Russian Government ◽  
Mining Company ◽  
Foreign Investors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
Main Obstacle ◽  
The Government

Subject The sale of the Erdenet mine. Significance The day before parliamentary elections in June last year, Prime Minister Saikhanbileg Chimed announced the sale of 49% of shares held by the Russian government in the Erdenet Mining Corporation and the Mongolrostsvetmet mining company to Mongolia Copper Corporation, an unknown private Mongolian company. Subsequent parliamentary inquiry concluded that the sale was unconstitutional and the government ordered the shares transferred to the state on February 16 this year. The government’s actions received wide public support while polls reveal that the electorate views corruption as the main obstacle to Mongolia’s development Impacts Talk of 'nationalisation' in the Western media threatens to derail Mongolia's efforts to fix its image and attract foreign investors. The unusual circumstances of the sale raise suspicions of corruption and collusion between Mongolia's previous government and largest bank. The new government's will to scrutinise sale demonstrates the strength of Mongolia’s democracy.

Malaysia's Najib faces continuing challenge from 1MDB

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil Society ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The Political ◽  
Investment Fund ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
National Investment ◽  
National Organisation

Subject Malaysia's political outlook following the Bersih 4 protests. Significance Former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad is to be officially questioned about his presence at the 'Bersih 4' mass protests organised by the Coalition for Clean and Fair Elections (Bersih) on August 29 and 30, local press reports said today. By allowing the rallies to proceed peacefully, Prime Minister Najib Razak had sought to extend the political respite brought by his July 28 cabinet reshuffle. His position nationally and within the governing United Malays National Organisation (UMNO) is under threat amid political difficulties relating to the 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB) national investment fund. Impacts The Malaysian parliamentary opposition's weakness means civil society will provide most opposition to the government for now. The Bersih movement's mostly urban support limits its challenge to the government, which enjoys strong rural support. Public doubts about the effectiveness of Malaysian anti-corruption frameworks will stunt their development.

Guinea’s constitutional crisis may escalate further

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil Society ◽  
Public Sector ◽  
International Investment ◽  
Education Sector ◽  
Legislative Elections ◽  
National Front ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Climate ◽  
The Government ◽  
Opposition Parties

Significance The National Front for the Defence of the Constitution (FNDC) coalition, a grouping of opposition parties and civil society groups, has vowed to continue protests until the government drops its plans. A referendum over a new constitution could be held as early as December alongside planned legislative elections. Impacts The crisis could put the economy under growing pressure, resulting in reduced international investment and potential aid freezes. The worsening economic climate could see public-sector strikes intensify, particularly in the education sector. Persistent protests may trigger defections from the governing Rally of the Guinean People (RPG) and its allies. A potential compromise is that Conde pursues a new constitution as a legacy project, while agreeing to abandon any third-term bid.

Putin will stand back from Russia's Duma polls

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Communist Party ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Force ◽  
Popular Support ◽  
Economic Problems ◽  
Vladimir Putin ◽  
Opposition Parties

Subject The Russian president's options for winning September elections. Significance The September 2016 elections to Russia's parliament, the State Duma, are the first to coincide with a severe economic crisis since President Vladimir Putin came to power. The authorities are determined to prevent social discontent escalating into the kind of protests seen after the last polls in December 2011, which unsettled Putin's plans for re-election in March 2012. Popular support for Putin remains high, and 'loyal opposition' parties such as the Communists are blaming economic problems on Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev instead. Impacts Signs that the recession is slowing will reduce the scope for a protest vote. Putin is keen to get EU sanctions lifted by July, not least for the electoral benefits. Buoyed by growing popular support, the Communist Party may evolve into a more active political force.

Pakistan’s Khan will not challenge military's power

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil Society ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The State ◽  
General Election ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type

Subject Military influence in Pakistan. Significance Army Chief Qamar Javed Bajwa earlier this month visited Beijing to reassure China about Pakistan’s commitment to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Pakistan’s military strongly influences the country’s policy. It is widely believed that Prime Minister Imran Khan had the military’s support in winning the July general election. Impacts Any meeting between Khan and US President Donald Trump is likely to be uncomfortable, further straining Pakistan-US ties. Pakistan will strongly defend its commitment to CPEC. The state will increase harassment of political opponents and civil society critics.

India’s Naxalite threat is much reduced

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Land Reform ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The State ◽  
General Election ◽  
Religious Violence ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National Poll ◽  
The Government

Subject Declining threat of India's Maoists. Significance Some 62 Naxalites -- Maoist rebels -- recently surrendered to security forces in Chhattisgarh, where around 125,000 police and paramilitary troops were deployed to safeguard this week’s first phase of the state elections, which the Naxalites want boycotted. Home Minister Rajnath Singh last month said Naxalites would be eliminated in India within 1-3 years. Impacts The government is unlikely to prioritise land reform in the lead-up to the 2019 general election. Some states are likely to see outbreaks of Hindu-Muslim religious violence ahead of the national poll. Singh will likely remain home minister if Prime Minister Narendra Modi wins a second term.

Israel’s government will likely limp through crisis

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Healthcare System ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Public Trust ◽  
The State ◽  
Trust In Government ◽  
State Budget ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government

Significance Resurgent COVID-19 cases and policy chaos have weakened Netanyahu politically and are undermining public trust in government. Meanwhile, allies of the prime minister have implied that he may seek to trigger fresh elections later this year amid frustrations over impasses within his government. Impacts Despite resurgent case numbers, the healthcare system appears able to cope with the additional burdens. The government will be reluctant to order a second full lockdown, fearing the economic hit and that people may simply ignore the rules. The preoccupation with the pandemic has delayed addressing other issues, most notably the state budget.

COVID-19 response may disrupt power balances in Iran

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Civil Society ◽  
Effective Action ◽  
The State ◽  
Islamic Revolution ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Trading Mechanisms ◽  
The Government

Significance The Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC), together with its Basij militia, has partly restored its reputation for effective action. At the same time, new local civil society groups have mobilised. Impacts The state will likely increase its role in the ailing economy, creating cooperatives and centralised trading mechanisms. The Expediency Council would become a key actor if the government were challenged by conservative forces. The lack of effective cooperation from European partners will shift Iran’s foreign policy further towards China and Russia.

Reforms will strengthen Singapore opposition

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Local Politics ◽  
Constitutional Reform ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
To Receive ◽  
Constitutional Changes ◽  
Opposition Parties

Subject Constitutional reform in Singapore. Significance Parliament is expected in August to receive recommendations on electoral and constitutional changes that will affect opposition politics and executive powers. The government raised the initiatives in parliament in January; Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said they would be beneficial to Singapore and its government. However, the measures are also likely to benefit the People's Action Party (PAP), which has ruled Singapore since independence in 1965. Impacts Presidential elections are unlikely to become more competitive. Opposition parties would gain parliamentary exposure if the reform recommendations are enacted. Government scrutiny of corporations' activities in the community and local politics will intensify.

Land sale scandal in Japan will have broader impact

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Private School ◽  
Civil Service ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Public Trust ◽  
The Political ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Land Sale ◽  
Political Scandal ◽  
Opposition Parties

Subject The 'Moritomo Gakuen' scandal. Significance A political scandal has re-emerged concerning the sale of government land at a heavy discount to a nationalist private school operator reportedly linked to Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and his wife, Akie. The latest revelation is that the finance ministry falsified documents to conceal Akie's involvement. The opposition parties are divided and weak in terms of their numbers in parliament, but they have managed to use the events of recent days to destabilise Abe. Impacts This and other cases of misrepresentation will further shake public trust in the government. Trust in the political impartiality of the civil service will also be damaged. Even if Abe survives and is re-elected, damage to his ‘brand’ could undermine his campaign to revise Japan's constitution.

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