Russian sell-offs must be both lucrative and fair

Subject The government's resumption of state asset sales. Significance Economic conditions and the urgent need for budget funds have compelled the Russian government to act on long-delayed privatisation plans. The approved list of assets for sale in 2016-17 includes companies in the oil, mining, transport and banking sectors. The economic development ministry has identified oil majors Rosneft and Bashneft and the diamond firm Alrosa as the most likely to undergo full or partial privatisation in 2016. Impacts The aim of these privatisations is to raise money in the short term, not pave the way for structural reforms. Purchases will be partly financed by capital returning to Russia from offshore jurisdictions. Despite regulation, sales to oligarchs at depressed prices are likely to cause public disquiet.

1973 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 432-454 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. M. Maravall

THIS ARTICLE ATTEMPTS TO DISCUSS A NUMBER OF QUESTIONS RELATED to the development of a working-class movement of dissent under non-democratic conditions. In this discussion particular attention will be given to the consequences of economic development. It is not that economic development will be considered as a cross-culturally invariant factor in the explanation of social and political conflict and dissent, but that given i) a non-democratic political context and ii) social and economic conditions allowing for working-class movements whose open manifestation is hence restricted by the political set of constraints, the effects of economic development upon such contradictory conditions, and the way they influence the pattern of development of the working-class movement will be especially considered.


Subject Pakistan's divestment drive. Significance Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif's government describes divestment of public sector enterprises (PSEs), involving 69 firms, as an essential part of its 2013-18 economic reform agenda. Progress thus far is limited, but the government faces rising pressure from the IMF, which made divestment a core condition of its 6.6-billion-dollar, three-year loan in September 2013. Impacts Another government led by Sharif would continue gradual divestments after 2018. Since PSEs are an important vector for distributing political patronage, structural reforms will face stiff resistance. Divestment of profitable PSEs defeats the purpose of the exercise, but the government will use them for a short-term cash boost.


Significance The planned railway is the latest development in warming relations between Tanzania and Rwanda. Increasing ties could pave the way for a larger Tanzanian role in the region while also providing Rwanda with economic and political benefits. Impacts Improved bilateral relations will spur economic improvement and bilateral trade. Closer relations with Rwanda will shift some regional influence to Tanzania. Economic gains from the partnership could advance economic development plans that underpin Kigali's legitimacy.


Significance Recent demonstrations focused on the government’s failure to hold long-delayed municipal elections and voiced frustration with dysfunctional service delivery and deteriorating socio-economic conditions. As a result, President Alpha Conde has unveiled a new electoral code which could allow elections to be held in 2018. Impacts Conde’s grip on the military should ensure short-term stability. Modest growth is unlikely to lead to broader job creation and improvements in public service delivery. Protests in mining communities will persist over jobs and social services.


Significance While the measures have been welcomed by investors, they depend on Pretoria reaching a deal with civil servants, whose unions have denounced the government’s plans. Impacts Despite commitments to a series of growth-boosting structural reforms outlined last year, progress will likely remain halting. Renewed funding for embattled South African Airways (SAA) will be a recurring source of public and political contention over the short term. Debt costs could rise further if a ratings downgrade sees investors demand even higher yields on South African debt.


Significance This Fund-supported programme will help Ecuador address the economic shock caused by the sharp drop in oil prices and the COVID-19 pandemic. It also paves the way for the settlement of a USD17.4bn debt exchange between Ecuador and its creditors. Impacts Strikes will increase as pandemic restrictions ease, with workers demanding protection from mass-firings and income losses. Environmental activism against extractive projects will continue to pose challenges for the oil, gas and mining sectors. Small banks will be highly vulnerable to worsening economic conditions given their exposure to consumer loans and microfinance. Inflows of Venezuelan refugees and migrants will exert renewed pressure on fiscal costs once the sanitary crisis subsides.


2016 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 362-384 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tanveer Ahsan ◽  
Man Wang ◽  
Muhammad Azeem Qureshi

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to find out firm, industry, and country level determinants of capital structure of Pakistani listed non-financial firms. Design/methodology/approach The authors use a fixed effects panel data model over a 39 years (1972-2010) unbalanced panel data of Pakistani non-financial listed firms to determine the factors that influence capital structure of these firms. Findings The authors find that Pakistani firms prefer retained earnings to finance their business projects, and debt is easily available for experienced firms. Moreover, socio-economic collusive networks, poor corporate governance mechanism along with weak legal system provide these firms an opportunity to pass on their risk to the creditors (banks). Research limitations/implications The data set does not contain factors characterizing inter-industry heterogeneity, therefore, the authors use mean industry leverage and mean industry profitability to explore if any relationship exists between leverage of firms, and their respective industry leverage/profitability. Practical implications Pakistani non-financial firms are highly leveraged increasing their probability to face financial distress in erratic economic conditions. As such, the policy makers need to develop capital markets of Pakistan to enable a resilient corporate capital structure. Further, erratic economic conditions of Pakistan create uncertain business environment yielding short-term opportunities and to finance them Pakistani firms use short-term debt as a main financing source. The policy makers need to improve corporate governance mechanism and strengthen legal system that will go a long way to develop Pakistani capital market on sound and sustainable footing. Originality/value This is the first study that uses an extended number of variables and discovers financial behavior of firms in a bank-based economy having limited financing options, and facing erratic economic conditions.


Subject Prospects for Dagestan. Significance Dagestan appears to be winning the struggle with terrorists, guerrillas and mafia gangs; violence in the province subsided last year and the trend seems to be holding for the first half of 2015. Ramazan Abdulatipov, Dagestan's president, declared a new anti-terrorism strategy from the start of his tenure in January 2013. While continuing traditional law-enforcement, he laid out a broad plan of economic development and institutional reform to eliminate the root causes of instability. However, the investment needed for Abdulatipov's plan can only come from Russia's federal budget, which is under serious pressure. Impacts The Kremlin may decide that the Chechen approach of allowing the local elite wide autonomy is preferable to the current Dagestan model. The anti-corruption campaign may exacerbate tensions. Security structures in the Russian government will rise to positions of greater prominence should Dagestan's situation worsen.


Subject Italy's government relations. Significance Italy’s coalition partners agreed on January 10 to take in a dozen stranded migrants from the Sea Watch 3 NGO ship in Malta after the two parties initially took divergent stands on the issue. Migration has been a source of growing division between the anti-immigrant League party and the anti-establishment Five Star Movement (M5S), among other issues such as the environment and tax. However, in the short-term, staying in government is in the interest of both parties. Impacts Government stability should see bond yield spreads between Italy and Germany stabilise. Longer-term structural reforms are likely to go unaddressed as the coalition partners turn their focus to European elections. The EU could be forced to accommodate Italy’s migration policy, particularly with respect to the redistribution of migrants.


Subject Sonangol priorities. Significance Early structural reforms by new President Joao Lourenco and more positive economic projections for 2018 suggest a potential uptick in Angola’s fiscal fortunes. Since assuming power in September, Lourenco has overhauled the leadership of state-owned oil company Sonangol and dismissed several prominent officials associated with his predecessor Jose Eduardo dos Santos. Separately, Lourenco has moved to tackle the overvalued kwanza. While this will raise debt-servicing costs, this will be partly ameliorated by the recent oil price of over 60 dollars per barrel. Impacts Scrapping the dollar currency peg will help ease the foreign exchange crisis and end payment constraints in the aviation and oil sectors. A more realistic exchange rate will fuel inflation in the short term but will likely improve medium-term economic prospects. Urban support for the People's Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA) could decline further if reforms remain elite-focused.


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