Armenia could be 'bridge' if Iran opens to the world

Significance Vaezi was speaking after talks with visiting Armenian Economy Minister Karen Chshmaritian. Since Iran's nuclear deal with the international powers, Armenia is in a key position to engage with Iran, building on a recent deepening of bilateral relations. With a sizeable minority community in Iran and a record of historical cooperation, Armenia is well positioned to leverage the opportunities inherent in Iran's reintegration into the global economy. Impacts With two of its four borders closed, better links to Iran would be of great benefit to Armenia. Iran could have ambitions of becoming a mediator in South Caucasus's intractable 'frozen' conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh. Iran could offer Armenia its oil and gas at a discount to take market share from Russia.

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 1444
Author(s):  
Jungran Cho ◽  
Emma Kyoungseo Hong ◽  
Jeongho Yoo ◽  
Inkyo Cheong

Various risks and uncertainties are strengthening the downside of the global economy. This paper aims to estimate the impact of the US–China conflict and the World Trade Organization (WTO) Appellate Body’s shutdown on global logistics demand and to show the seriousness of the situation. Existing literature studies on protectionism or the US–China trade conflict were considered, with a focus on the effects of specific issues or impact on bilateral relations. No research has quantitatively considered the adverse effects of the Appellate Body’s shutdown. In this situation, questions can be raised whether the current global shipping logistics system can be sustainable or not. This paper attempts to estimate the shrinking demand for shipping logistics due to global protectionism. Using a dynamic general equilibrium model and trade-cargo-container conversion methodology, which differentiates this paper from previous studies, the paper suggests that the combination of tariffs and NTBs can severely reduce international trade and the demand for maritime logistics services. Depending on the scenario, port cargo is expected to decrease by 3.95 to 6.9 trillion tons, which can be half of the global cargo. Based on these estimates, this paper suggests that a catastrophe could occur in global trade order as well as global maritime logistics. Finally, underlining that the international trade order should not be severely damaged, this paper proposes that countries around the world should seriously discuss this issue at the 12th WTO Trade Ministers’ Meeting in Kazakhstan in June 2020.


Significance The pandemic has seen an unprecedented reduction in global travel. Previously unthinkable travel bans and border closures have been implemented throughout the world in an attempt to control the spread of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. Many countries are now beginning to ease restrictions, aiming to achieve a new and sustainable normal. Travel is a crucial component of the global economy and the sector is restarting, but it faces major challenges. Impacts Domestic air travel will begin its recovery much ahead of international travel as it will not have to deal with border restrictions. Large outbreaks could lead to quarantines for individuals traveling to and from the affected country until control has been regained. Improvements in testing quality and capacity will significantly aid the global recovery process.


Subject Civil aerospace outlook. Significance The November Dubai Airshow may herald a slowdown in the global civil aerospace business as neither Airbus nor Boeing registered large airline orders. The falling cost of fuel has led many airlines to delay expensive modernisation plans. Concerns over the state of the global economy will also dampen short-term demand. Impacts Bottlenecks in supply chains may constrain future production expansions. Airbus will face an expensive decision in the early 2020s about launching an all-new narrow-body to replace the A320neo. New programmes will be affected harder by a downturn, with companies fighting for sales in the competitive regional airliner market. The battle for market share could force at least one contender out of business over the next five years.


Subject Prospects for the global economy in 2017. Significance The IMF, the OECD and the World Bank see the world economy growing by about 3.0% next year, little changed from its 2012-16 average growth but down from the 5.1% average achieved during 2003-07. Factors influencing the outlook include weak trade and poor productivity along with high debt levels and policy limitations: these feed into each other, creating a downward spiral of growth expectations. Nonetheless, many economies are well placed to cope with this 'new normal'.


Subject Global economy prospects. Significance The world economy is expected to grow by around 4% this year, slightly higher than expected six months ago. Yet this is likely to be the peak of this cycle.


Subject Prospects for the global economy to end-2019. Significance The world economy is likely to grow by around 3% this year. This is the lower end of the 3.0-3.5% range expected six months ago. World trade is weakening amid the US-China conflict and productivity is not picking up. China is expanding fiscal policy and others may follow, perhaps Germany and the United States. Monetary tightening is off the table and some countries may loosen policy. However, this will mainly shore up growth rather than raising it.


Subject Imminent recession fears may be misplaced. Significance The worrisome factors putting the world economy at risk do not make recession inevitable by 2020-21. Sentiment is being buffeted and heavily depressed by febrile global governance and trade, as well as unusual economic tensions and volatility. However, a true global recession requires a synchronised shock to the world economy to affect most of the key economies and sectors. Whatever cyclical analysis suggests, especially for the United States, such large global events have no fixed timetable. Impacts Each part of the global economy moves at its own varying pace, so it will take a severe and as yet unseen provocation to drive recession. A relatively unusual convergence of negative factors across key regions and sectors would be needed to generate a 2008-style crash. A sharp decline in world trade could trigger such a crash, but this might have little visible impact on official measures of real GDP.


2019 ◽  
Vol 26 (2) ◽  
pp. 265-289 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel J. McCarthy ◽  
Sheila M. Puffer ◽  
Daniel M. Satinsky

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the dramatically changed role of Russia in the global economy since the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, as the Soviet institutions collapsed and were either reformed or replaced in a new Russian institutional landscape. The paper presents a fact-based and balanced view of Russia’s evolving role in the global economy, as distinguished from the sometimes one-sided view presented by some Western commentators. The authors establish that the two countervailing views are fundamentally based on different cultural perspectives about institutions, primarily the roles of business and government. Design/methodology/approach This paper is developed as a perspectives article drawing upon the decades of academic and business experience of all three authors with Russian business, management and the economy. The paper focuses on the structure of Russian institutional change and places it within the historical context of the challenges of various periods of time from the late 1980s to the present. The authors posit that cultural foundations complicate that institutional evolution. Findings Russia will remain a major player in world markets for energy, raw materials and armaments for the near future at least. Principal institutional questions facing Russia have to do with how to reduce the country’s overall dependence on raw material exports, with its vulnerability to world market fluctuations, and how to modernize Russian economic and political institutions. The degree of success in addressing these questions will depend largely upon the ability of the new and reformed economic institutions to show the flexibility to respond to changes in the global order, on whether political considerations will continue to supersede economic issues, and how markedly cultural traditions will continue to impede positive changes. Research limitations/implications The entire system of international trade is under question, disrupted by the growing nationalism that is threatening the globalization that became institutionalized over decades in the wake of the Second World War. Russia’s future role is partially dependent upon how new patterns of international trade develop in response to the current disruption of established trade regimes, and by how political conflicts are expressed economically. The authors observe that Russia’s historical and cultural traditions, especially acquiescence to a highly centralized government with a strong autocratic leader, limit the country’s options. The authors explore how Russia’s reactions to Western sanctions have led to a new strategic approach, moving away from full engagement in the global economy to selective economic, and sometimes political, alliances with primarily non-Western countries, most notably China. The authors contrast Russia’s situation with that of China, which has been able to make substantial economic progress while still embracing a strong, centralized political institutional structure. Originality/value Many Western analysts have viewed Russian institutional evolution very critically through the lens of Western politics and sanctions, while Russia has continued along its own path of economic and institutional development. Each view, the authors argue, is based upon differing cultural perspectives of the roles of business and government. As a result, a distinct difference exists between the Western and Russian perspectives on Russia’s role in the world. This paper presents both points of view and explores the future of Russia’s position in the world economy based upon its evolving strategy for national economic policy. The authors contrast the situations of Russia and China, highlighting how Western-centric cultural views have affected perceptions of each country, sometimes similarly and at times with decided differences.


Significance Protectionism has risen in the last decade while globalisation, having accelerated after the Second World War and especially the 1980s, has stuttered. The pandemic is exacerbating profound fault lines in the functioning of the global economy, reviving fears of ‘peak trade’. Impacts Reshoring, and weaker trade and FDI, may narrow the chances for developing nations in industrial GVCs, especially at higher-value stages. Digitalisation may give developing states more opportunities in services GVCs; political stability, education and digital access are key. Large firms will increasingly dominate global exports; while these firms will innovate, new entrepreneurs may struggle to gain market share.


2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Christoph Wronka

Purpose The current COVID-19 pandemic has already proven to be one of the world’s deadliest crises in modern history with far-reaching impacts on different sectors of the global economy. The financial sector is among the most widely affected by the economic crisis occasioned by the COVID-19 pandemic. One of the most notable effects is related to financial crime. It is against this backdrop that the present study aimed to examine the impact of COVID-19 on financial institutions with the main focus being on financial crime Design/methodology/approach Its twofold objectives were to critically examine the global emerging patterns of financial crime and their association with the COVID-19 pandemic; and to investigate how financial institutions across the world have been responding to, managing, and dealing with the emerging patterns of financial crime brought about by (or linked to) the COVID-19 pandemic. Findings It was found out that as the pandemic ravages the world and pushes people and businesses to the very limits of their endurance, many financial sector stakeholders and players are responding in ways that put the entire financial sector and all its stakeholders at great risk. Specifically, COVID-19 pandemic has led to the emergence of new patterns of financial crime that were either unheard of or were not as rampant in the past. Originality/value Both the descriptive and correlation analyses produced by this study provide new insights into the impact of COVID-19 on financial institutions with a main focus on financial crime.


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