Singapore ruling party faces critical contest

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Electoral Politics ◽  
September 11 ◽  
General Election ◽  
Foreign Workers ◽  
Founding Father ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The City ◽  
Ruling Party ◽  
Opposition Parties

Subject Outlook for Singapore's 2015 general election. Significance Singapore will hold a general election on September 11, its first since the death of the city-state's founding father, Lee Kuan Yew. Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong has braced his long-incumbent People's Action Party (PAP) for a more difficult contest at the polls than in 2011, with opposition parties expected to better the 10% share of parliamentary seats they held on the dissolution of parliament on August 25. Impacts The People's Action Party will need to define a post-Lee Kuan Yew legacy. The post-September government will need to balance popular concern over foreign workers with Singapore's need for labour. Singaporean electoral politics will become increasingly competitive.

Abe's ambitious plan targets Japan's key risks

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Foreign Workers ◽  
Social Policies ◽  
Demographic Pressure ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Temporary Foreign Workers ◽  
Fiscal Planning ◽  
Ruling Party

Subject The Abe government's new fiscal plans. Significance Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's government has set out a six-year programme that combines fiscal planning with social policies to promote economic growth under severe demographic pressure. Impacts The plans are unlikely to encounter serious opposition within the ruling party or parliament. Visa reforms will admit temporary foreign workers in much greater numbers, but will restrict the scope for immigration. Making education free of charge aims to boost fertility, but even if this works the demographic boost is decades away. Cutting taxes on car and house sales will reduce revenue unless it stimulates very significant increases in sales.

Pakistan’s ruling party may be hard to dislodge

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The United States ◽  
General Election ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Opposition Party ◽  
Sindh Province ◽  
Ruling Party

Subject Electoral chances of Pakistan's opposition. Significance Despite Nawaz Sharif’s disqualification and resignation as prime minister on July 28, his Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) remains in power under new Prime Minister Shahid Khaqan Abbasi. Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) is now regarded as the opposition party most likely to challenge the incumbent government. A by-election on September 17 in the seat vacated by Sharif -- Lahore’s NA-120 -- will be a test of popularity ahead of the general election due in 2018. Impacts Pakistan’s military will look for greater support from the civilian government if the United States cuts its funding. Abbasi will resist pressure to devalue the rupee as a means of bolstering Pakistan’s exports. The Muttahida Qaumi Movement in Sindh province may regroup.

Oromo coalition will trouble Ethiopia’s ruling party

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Addis Ababa ◽  
Electoral System ◽  
Coalition Building ◽  
National Party ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Home State ◽  
Democratic Dialogue ◽  
Ruling Party ◽  
Opposition Parties

Subject Coalition-building ahead of Ethiopia's 2020 elections. Significance Following months of negotiations, the leaders of the three biggest Oromo opposition parties -- the Oromo Federalist Congress (OFC), Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) and Oromo National Party (ONP) -- on January 3 announced the formation of the Coalition for Democratic Federalism (CDF). This new platform will pose a serious electoral challenge to Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s newly formed Prosperity Party (formerly the Ethiopian Peoples’ Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF)) in Oromia, Abiy’s home state. Impacts As the OFC is already a member of the Forum for Democratic Dialogue in Ethiopia (MEDREK) opposition alliance, the CDF may also join. Ethiopia’s first-past-the-post electoral system will encourage further coalition-building, especially among opposition parties. If the CDF pushes claims of Oromo ‘ownership’ over Addis Ababa, this would complicate relations with other actors.

Spread of Modi’s BJP may play on civil violence

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Vice President ◽  
General Election ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
Civil Violence ◽  
Election Commission ◽  
Ruling Party

Subject Expansion of India's ruling party across the country. Significance Victories for candidates of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in recent elections for the president and the vice-president of India signal the consolidation of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s authority. Modi and party President Amit Shah aim not only to win the general election in 2019 but also to control as many states as possible and make the BJP the ‘party of the nation’. Impacts India’s Election Commission may have to investigate increasing claims of electoral impropriety. If Modi is re-elected, the BJP may attain a majority in the Rajya Sabha (upper house of parliament) in his second term. Shah's popularity will rise, though he is unlikely to want to succeed Modi in the long term.

Japan's ruling party is secure under any new leader

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
General Election ◽  
Revolving Door ◽  
Content Type ◽  
One Year ◽  
Bureaucratic Reform ◽  
Ruling Party

Significance The winner will become prime minister and lead the party into a general election that must take place before the middle of November. Four candidates are running. The incumbent bureaucratic reform minister and 'vaccine czar' Taro Kono is the clear frontrunner, but much could change over the next twelve days. Impacts More North Korean missile tests and other provocations would benefit the more hawkish candidates, Fumio Kishida and Sanae Takaichi. A win for Takaichi, who is backed by former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, would make Abe the 'power behind the throne'. Japan's foreign partners are wary of a return to the 'revolving door' pattern of weak leaders serving one-year terms, but this is unlikely.

Indian opposition parties will disrupt parliament more

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Supreme Court ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
General Election ◽  
Government Policies ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Chief Justice ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
The Supreme Court ◽  
Civil Violence ◽  
Opposition Parties

Subject Parliamentary disruptions and increasing riots in India. Significance Prime Minister Narendra Modi earlier this month led a public fast in protest at disruptions inside parliament, which cost the budget session nearly 250 hours in lost deliberations. While the Indian legislature’s role in holding the executive to account is curtailed, popular riots provide a means to challenge government policies. India’s general election is due in 2019, when Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will seek to retain power. Impacts Opposition parties’ attempts to have the Supreme Court chief justice impeached are unlikely to succeed. Spikes in civil violence are likely ahead of forthcoming state elections. The BJP and its allies may achieve a majority in the upper house after 2019, if Modi's party retains power.

Kishida will raise confidence in Japan's ruling party

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Impact ◽  
Energy Policy ◽  
Nuclear Power ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Foreign Minister ◽  
General Election ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Run Up ◽  
Ruling Party

Significance Kishida is a veteran politician from the party mainstream, who served as former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's foreign minister for many years and then as party policy chief. Parliament will convene on October 4 and elect him as the new prime minister. He will lead the party into a general election now expected on either November 7 or 14. Impacts Stimulus measures to deal with the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic will be an early priority. The run-up to the COP26 climate conference will see details of the new government's energy policy emerge, which will include nuclear power. The LDP's status as ruling party is not under threat, but losing seats in the election would immediately weaken Kishida's position.

Early polls give Baldizon election edge in Guatemala

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Electoral Politics ◽  
Local Communities ◽  
General Election ◽  
Investment Policy ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Foreign Companies ◽  
Legislative Activity ◽  
Run Up ◽  
Ruling Party

Subject The outlook for the September presidential elections. Significance Guatemala is due to vote for a new president, congressional representatives and local mayors at a general election in September 2015. Constitutional restrictions prevent incumbent President Otto Perez Molina from standing for a second term. Ruling party candidate Alejandro Sinibaldi currently trails challenger Manuel Baldizon in the polls. Impacts The pace of legislative activity will slow further in the run-up to the vote as legislators concentrate on campaign activities. Foreign companies perceived by local communities to be interfering with electoral politics may become targets of protest action. Economic and investment policy is anticipated to remain broadly similar under Perez Molina's eventual successor.

Modi’s party will likely renew emphasis on caste

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Identity Politics ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
General Election ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Election Campaigns ◽  
Economic Management ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Congress Party ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
Opposition Parties

Subject India's ruling party's likely election strategy emphasising caste. Significance Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) was last week displaced from government in three of its heartland states by the main opposition Congress party, following elections. The poll results suggest a loss of support for the BJP among rural voters and Dalits (formerly regarded as ‘untouchables’). Ahead of the general election likely in April or May, party President Amit Shah is overseeing the BJP’s strategy. Impacts The BJP will highlight India’s robust quarterly GDP growth figures, claiming good economic management besides engaging in identity politics. Opposition parties could highlight the plight of Dalits working as manual scavengers as part of their election campaigns. Shah will likely be a future prime ministerial candidate for the BJP.

Indian opposition parties will find it tough to unite

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
West Bengal ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
General Election ◽  
Content Type ◽  
North East ◽  
The North ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
Opposition Parties

Significance The dialogue centred on how to work more cooperatively to challenge Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government ahead of the next general election, due in 2024. The National Democratic Alliance, led by Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), had landslide wins in the 2014 and 2019 polls. Impacts The BJP will try to destabilise rival parties by encouraging their lawmakers to quit them. West Bengal state’s ruling All India Trinamool Congress, a major BJP opponent, will become more influential in the north-east. Muslims may feel increasingly vulnerable to verbal and physical attacks.

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