Iran gas can diversify European supplies in long term

Significance The deal reached between Iran and the P5+1 negotiating group (UN Security Council permanent members plus Germany) on July 14 promises to end most sanctions on the country, in return for suspension and monitoring of its nuclear programme. If ratified by all parties, it will create opportunities for an expansion of Iran's gas production and exports. Iran is the holder of the world's largest gas reserves, according to BP estimates. It is also the third-largest producer (after the United States and Russia, and probably having overtaken Qatar during 2015), and the fourth-largest consumer. Impacts Iran could increase gas exports by advancing projects stalled by sanctions, although most of these will take some years to come to fruition. Iran would seek to attract foreign investment into its gas industry to increase production and exports in the longer term. If this occurs, Iran will compete with other gas exporters, particularly Russia, into the 2020s.

Significance Last week, its partners in the ‘Quad’ grouping -- the United States, Japan and Australia -- agreed to help increase its vaccine manufacturing and exporting capacity. Each of the Quad members is wary of China, which like India is gifting and selling coronavirus jabs around the world. Impacts India’s manufacturing sector will attract more foreign direct investment. Greater cooperation over supply chains will help strengthen India-Australia ties. Indian pharma will in the long term aim to ease dependence on imports of active pharmaceutical ingredients from China.


Significance Russia on June 28 rejected as “lies” similar allegations by the United States, United Kingdom and France at the UN Security Council. The exchanges come against the backdrop of rising diplomatic tensions between Russia and France in CAR. Impacts Touadera’s ongoing offensive against rebel forces threatens to deliver a fatal blow to the peace deal he struck with them in 2019. Expanding Russian control over key mining sites could be a persistent source of frictions absent sophisticated local arrangements. Human rights concerns will deter some African leaders from engaging with Russia, but not all.


Significance The outcome comes as little surprise, given the repressive tactics used by the Ortega administration in the run-up to the vote, which included the disqualification or imprisonment of numerous opposition candidates. The United States and other international actors are now poised to put increased pressure on the re-elected government. Impacts The prospect of extended sanctions will act as a further disincentive to foreign investment. Ortega’s efforts to boost regional support through increased alignment with Honduras may lead to greater bilateral trade. More undocumented Nicaraguan migration looks inevitable, whether due to continuing political repression or worsening economic hardship.


Author(s):  
Franz Neumann

This chapter considers a variety of methods of treating Germany. The main objective of the United Nations in the treatment of Germany is to prevent it from ever again becoming a threat to the security of the world. The problem of securing this objective could be approached through destruction of Germany's industrial potential, destruction of Germany as a political entity, and removal from German society of the causes of aggression. The chapter shows that the first two solutions should be deferred until it is clear that the third alternative proves unworkable. In order to eliminate the causes of aggressiveness in German society, temporary and long-term disabilities should be imposed upon Germany. The chapter also examines the causes of German aggression, the United States' policy toward Germany, short-term measures during the period of military government, conditional measures during the probationary period, and permanent impositions upon Germany.


2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 321-345
Author(s):  
Aruna Apte

PurposeThe purpose of this research is to understand whether an organization knows if it is ready to respond to a disaster and whether it has the capabilities to deliver relief. Our initial motivation was to identify unique resources possessed by the United States Navy (USN) and United States Marine Corps (USMC) due to their unique and critical capabilities for humanitarian operations. The recent frequency of disasters around the world suggests these events will continue to create demand for relief capabilities. For this reason we need to understand readiness metrics not just for USN and USMC but for humanitarian organizations (Hos) in general.Design/methodology/approachWe survey relevant literature for understanding how HOs define and develop readiness metrics and associated factors. We studied documents including peer-reviewed scholarly articles, government documents, white papers, research papers and Department of Defense (DoD) briefings. We study literature that is significantly written for DoD, one, the vast experience of USN and USMC and two, the lessons learned have been documented. The literature offers substantial information on what readiness means and why it is important. This documented information is critical because it is known to the researchers in humanitarian operations that data is hard to come by.FindingsThe framework for readiness proposed at the end of this article is context the emergency responder probably uses in an informal fashion. The validation of readiness framework, we find exists in the supporting literature we review.Originality/valueThe understanding of readiness metrics for humanitarian operations for the organizations we study may offer insight into other HOs. The insights we gain may not be pivotal or counterintuitive to the conclusions based on commonsense. However, they are supported by the literature review. We formalize the concept based on conclusions of a set of diverse set of researchers and practitioners such as academic scholars, DoD personnel and government officials involved in humanitarian missions, USAID representatives that are repeatedly tasked for being ready, military and government officers from host and foreign countries and many more.


Subject The implications of new regulations on fracking. Significance The Department of the Interior on March 20 unveiled the first comprehensive federal rule to cover hydraulic fracturing ('fracking') operations on federally-owned and Native American lands. The rule adjusts construction standards to protect water resources and requires companies to disclose the chemical content of fracking fluid, as well as to give advance public notice of fracking activity. Impacts The United States may provide the template for shale regulations in other parts of the world. Water scarcity will lead to additional public policy constraints on fracking. The California drought will imperil the viability of the Monterey shale basin for years to come.


Significance The ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) should easily get the most votes, but it faces a likely setback and a dent in its authority. Weakening support from its voters and Turkey's proportional representation system are likely to drive its number of parliamentary seats down from the 327 out of 550 seats it won in 2011, perhaps even to the point where an overall majority is in doubt. Impacts Market confidence and the lira may weaken, but will not deteriorate drastically, unless AKP is forced out of office -- a remote scenario. Fiscal and monetary policy may be loosened to win support until a new government able to last for a full four-year term is in office. A politically weaker AKP risks long-term splits, but these will not emerge unless there have been months of instability. Growing internal discord -- and the government's defiant response to its critics at home and abroad -- may isolate Turkey internationally. The United States and EU will continue to avoid confrontation with the Erdogan government as far as possible.


Significance US natural gas prices have surged over the past six weeks thanks to falling supply, strong demand from the power sector and rising exports. The uptick in prices has provided a glimmer of hope to gas producers in the United States, hard hit by a prolonged slump in prices. Impacts Declining gas production and rising demand will mean increased pipeline imports from Canada over the coming months. Mexico will pay higher prices for US natural gas imports as the Henry Hub benchmark, potentially hitting demand. US producers that have more gas-producing assets in their portfolio will benefit from rising prices.


Significance A new justice has the potential to change the tenor of the Supreme Court's rulings significantly for many years to come, on issues including the scope of federal regulation, campaign finance and the federal government's powers. Scalia was a vocal political and judicial conservative, and the upcoming political fight to appoint his successor will reflect the broader conservative-progressive debate about civil liberties, the scope of the Constitution and the role of government in society. Impacts The Obama administration is likely to see many of its administrative actions upheld, at least until his term ends next January. An open Supreme Court seat may boost turnout by conservative Republican voters worried about a moderate or liberal appointment. Appointment politics and numerous federal vacancies are likely to persist as a feature of divided government in the United States.


Subject Palace politics Significance Military courts earlier this month handed down the most severe sentences thus far in lese majeste cases, sentencing two people to 30 and 28 years in prison for criticising the monarchy on Facebook. The sentence, which has drawn sharp criticism from the United States and the UN, reflects a broader trend of tighter political and legal controls by the military in the context of the monarch's declining health. Impacts Domestic consumption will suffer as long as political uncertainty regarding the return of civilian rule persists. The palace has become more partisan since 2006; this is likely to continue after the royal transition. Lese majeste prosecutions will damage US-Thai relations, but Washington will not expand sanctions.


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