Business confidence mars Chile investment outlook

Subject The impact of falling investment. Significance Since 2013, investment has been declining in many Latin American countries in a trend related to lower commodity prices. However, in Chile, the contraction has been particularly marked and is also attributed to a loss of business confidence caused by domestic political factors. Impacts An expected increase in international interest rates will play against higher private investment next year. Increased competitiveness as a result of peso depreciation may boost investment in some non-commodity export industries. Local businesses, accustomed to Chile's economic and political stability, will find it difficult to adjust to increased uncertainty.

Subject The impact of US monetary policy tightening. Significance Following the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) historic decision to raise rates for the first time since 2006, the start of the Fed's monetary tightening cycle is accentuating the hawkish stance of Latin America's main central banks. This comes amid a dramatic sell-off in commodity markets, persistent concerns about China's economy and a severe deterioration in economic conditions across the region. Impacts EM asset prices have remained relatively resilient to the rise in US interest rates, in stark contrast to the 'taper tantrum' in 2013. Hitherto-resilient regional local currency government bond markets will face foreign capital outflows due to falling commodity prices. The Brazilian real is 2015's worst-performing major EM currency, but due largely to political and economic difficulties at home.


Significance Recovery in the corporate sector is unevenly divided between large and smaller companies. More robust global demand and rising commodity prices boosted the profitability of large exporters, whereas the recovery of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) was delayed by pandemic restrictions and falling real disposable incomes. Impacts High metals prices will constrain investment in infrastructure. Rising interest rates will limit capital market borrowing by medium-sized companies. Government price controls threaten to undermine private investment in agriculture, metallurgy and chemical production. A deterioration in banks' corporate portfolio will be adequately offset by high earnings and previous provisioning.


2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Shailesh Rastogi ◽  
Adesh Doifode ◽  
Jagjeevan Kanoujiya ◽  
Satyendra Pratap Singh

PurposeCrude oil, gold and interest rates are some of the key indicators of the health of domestic as well as global economy. The purpose of the study is to find the shock volatility and price volatility effects of gold and crude oil market on interest rates in India.Design/methodology/approachThis study finds the mutual and directional association of the volatility of gold, crude oil and interest rates in India. The bi-variate GARCH models (Diagonal VEC GARCH and BEKK GARCH) are applied on the sample data of gold price, crude oil price and yield (interest rate) gathered from November 30, 2015 to November 16, 2020 (weekly basis) to investigate the volatility association including the volatility spillover effect in the three markets.FindingsThe main findings of the study focus on having a long-term conditional correlation between gold and interest rates, but there is no evidence of volatility spillover from gold and crude oil on the interest rates. The findings of the study are of great importance especially to the policymakers, as they state that the fluctuations in prices of gold and crude oil do not adversely impact the interest rates in India. Therefore, the fluctuations in prices of gold and crude may generally impact the economy, but it has nothing to do with interest rate in particular. This implies that domestic and foreign investments in the country will not be affected by gold and crude oil that are largely driven by interest rates in the country.Practical implicationsGold and crude oil are two very important commodities that have their importance not only for domestic affairs but also for international business. They veritably influence the economy including forex exchange for any nation. In addition to this, the researchers believe the findings will provide insights to policymakers, stakeholders and investors.Originality/valueGold and crude oil undoubtedly influence the exchange rates but their impact on the interest rates in an economy is not definite and remains ambiguous owing to the mixed findings of the studies. The lack of studies related to the impact of gold and crude oil on the interest rates, despite them being essentials for the health of any economy is the main motivation of this study. This study is novel as it investigates the volatility impact of crude oil and gold on interest rates and contributes to the existing literature with its findings.


2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 361-380 ◽  
Author(s):  
Patricia Viveiros de Castro Krakauer ◽  
Gustavo Hermínio Salati Marcondes de Moraes ◽  
Roberto Coda ◽  
Davi de França Berne

Purpose The paper aims to investigate the existence of typical preferred behaviours that might characterize Brazilian women’s entrepreneurial profile and whether this profile influences their motivation to undertake a venture. Design/methodology/approach Following the evolution of the literature on women entrepreneurship, the study criticizes the rational view that conceives entrepreneurship as a universal phenomenon and immune to gender. A quantitative approach based on multivariate data analysis (structural equation modelling) was applied to a sample of 418 women entrepreneurs with regard to six hypotheses associated with a specifically conceived conceptual model. Findings The behavioural categories tested in the model that most influence Brazilian women’s entrepreneurial profile are planning, identifying opportunities, sociability and leadership, corroborating the results of other international studies. Behaviours connected with persistence did not correlate to Brazilian women’s entrepreneurial profile. The hypothesis that women’s entrepreneurial profile positively influences their entrepreneurial intention was confirmed. Research limitations/implications As the study is based on an intentional, non-probabilistic sample, further research needs to be conducted using other forms of sampling, extending the findings to other contexts internationally and to other Brazilian regions. Practical implications Women can perceive whether their behavioural profile is suited to embracing entrepreneurship challenges, helping them to make effective career choices. Originality/value The study provides a robust model with high explanatory value. It contributes to the women’s entrepreneurship literature from the perspective of a Latin American developing country, offering valuable insights regarding the impact of entrepreneurial behavioural profile on women’s entrepreneurial activities.


2018 ◽  
Vol 21 (4) ◽  
pp. 242-257 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dana L. Haggard ◽  
K. Stephen Haggard

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the effects of culture, legal origin and religion on four measures of the ease of starting a new business; the number of procedures required, the number days required, the ease of getting credit and the cost to start a business. Design/methodology/approach The authors use linear regression to test the hypotheses using publicly available data on legal origin and religion from La Porta et al. (1999), cultural dimension information from Hofstede (2009) and measures of the ease of starting a business from the World Bank’s (2017) Doing Business Initiative. The final sample consists of 71 countries for which information was available on all the variables of interest. Findings Legal origin affects the number of procedures and the length of time needed to start a business, as well as the ease of getting credit. Culture (power distance) and religion are important for explaining gender differences in the ease of starting a business. The cost of starting a business is unrelated to culture, legal origin or religion. Originality/value Economic development is an important determinant of a country’s political stability and standard of living. Although politicians play a significant role in how a friendly a country is toward business, the study demonstrates that other longer-term and less dynamic factors have a material influence on economic development.


2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (270) ◽  
Author(s):  
Carlos Janada ◽  
Iulia Ruxandra Teodoru

This paper argues that structural weaknesses may make private investment particularly sensitive to business confidence relative to other traditional investment drivers and global shocks. It gauges the importance of confidence over recent years in selected countries in Central America, including Costa Rica, the Dominican Republic, El Salvador, and Guatemala. Using a vector error correction model to carry out the empirical work, a system representing global activity and the domestic economy, including a set of investment drivers (interest rates, unit labor costs, and confidence) is analyzed. The findings suggest that confidence has been, on average, the most important driver of investment in these countries, exceeded only by global factors. Since confidence, arguably, can be influenced by policymakers’ decisions, structural reforms to improve the business climate and reduce uncertainty play an important role in promoting investment and economic growth.


2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 17-44 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rosylin Mohd Yusof ◽  
Farrell Hazsan Usman ◽  
Akhmad Affandi Mahfudz ◽  
Ahmad Suki Arif

Purpose This study aims to investigate the interactions among macroeconomic variable shocks, banking fragility and home financing provided by conventional and Islamic banks in Malaysia. Identifying the causes of financial instability and the effects of macroeconomic shocks can help to foil the onset of future financial turbulence. Design/methodology/approach The autoregressive distributed lag bound-testing cointegration approach, impulse response functions (IRFs) and forecast error variance decomposition are used in this study to unravel the long-run and short-run dynamics among the selected macroeconomic variables and amount of home financing offered by both conventional and Islamic banks. In addition, the study uses Granger causality tests to investigate the short-run causalities among the selected variables to further understand the impact of one macroeconomic shock to Islamic and conventional home financing. Findings This study provides evidence that macroeconomic shocks have different long-run and short-run effects on amount of home financing offered by conventional and Islamic banks. Both in the long run and short run, home financing provided by Islamic banks is more linked to real sector economy and thus is more stable as compared to home financing provided by conventional banks. The Granger causality test reveals that only gross domestic product (GDP), Kuala Lumpur Syariah Index (KLSI)/Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI) and house price index (HPI) are found to have a statistically significant causal relationship with home financing offered by both conventional and Islamic banks. Unlike the case of Islamic banks, conventional home financing is found to have a unidirectional causality with interest rates. Research limitations/implications This study has focused on analyzing the macroeconomic shocks on home financing. However, this study does not assess the impact of financial deregulation and enhanced information technology on amount of financing offered by both conventional and Islamic banks. In addition, it is not within the ambit of this present study to examine the effects of agency costs and information asymmetry. Practical implications The analysis of cointegration and IRFs exhibits that in the long run and short run, home financing provided by Islamic banks are more linked to real sector economy like GDP and House Prices (HPI) and therefore more resilient to economic vulnerabilities as compared to home financing provided by conventional banks. However, in the long run, both conventional and Islamic banks are more susceptible to fluctuations in interest rates. The results of the study suggest that monetary policy ramifications to improve banking fragility should focus on stabilizing interest rates or finding an alternative that is free from interest. Social implications Because interest plays a significant role in pricing of home loans, the potential of an alternative such as rental rate is therefore timely and worth the effort to investigate further. Therefore, Islamic banks can explore the possibility of pricing home financing based on rental rate as proposed in this study. Originality/value This paper examines the unresolved issues in Islamic home financing where Islamic banks still benchmark their products especially home financing, to interest rates in dual banking system such as in the case of Malaysia. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, studies conducted in this area are meager and therefore is imperative to be examined.


2018 ◽  
Vol 30 (4) ◽  
pp. 255-268 ◽  
Author(s):  
Karla María Alvarado-Ramírez ◽  
Víctor Hipólito Pumisacho-Álvaro ◽  
José Ángel Miguel-Davila ◽  
Manuel F. Suárez Barraza

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to compare the practices of continuous improvement that are applied in medium and large manufacturing and service companies in two Latin American countries. At the same time, benefits and barriers experienced by these companies with regard to sustainability of continuous improvement are explored.Design/methodology/approachIn order to generate a comparative study between two Latin American countries, interviews were conducted with managers linked to continuous improvement in medium and large companies in the State of Puebla and the Metropolitan District of Quito, which are important areas in Mexico and Ecuador, respectively. Data were collected by means of document analysis, semi-structured interviews, and direct observation.FindingsCompanies in both countries identify the use of various techniques and/or tools for continuous improvement. The results of the empirical evidence show how the impact of the application of the techniques has been beneficial in economic and human terms. Thus, the exploratory study has permitted the identification of the drivers and inhibitors in the maintenance of continuous improvement.Research limitations/implicationsThe research is based on only two areas of the Latin American countries: Mexico and Ecuador. Their results can therefore not be generalized. The approach is applied in a specific environment, namely, the State of Puebla and the Metropolitan District of Quito. This study incorporates the perception of managers, directors, and/or supervisors involved in continuous improvement processes.Practical implicationsThis paper seeks to provide analytical input. The study is of great interest to researchers, managers, consultants, and professionals linked to projects of continuous improvement who wish to incorporate continuous improvement practices which are sustainable over time. A new managerial behavior is the basis of continuous improvement, where the training and development of the human resource increases the commitment to achieve organizational changes.Originality/valueThis research makes an empirical contribution to the literature through the understanding of practices of continuous improvement in a Latin American context, highlighting the factors that improve or impede the process of continuous improvement. Particularly in Mexico and Ecuador, the empirical evidence on this subject is still scarce despite the existence of theoretical academic literature.


2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Esteban López-Zapata ◽  
Armando De Jesús Ramírez-Gómez

PurposeThis study analyzes the impact of intellectual capital on organizational ambidexterity by evaluating the mediating effect of the different types of organizational cultures (adhocracy, clan, market and hierarchy) on the said relationship.Design/methodology/approachFrom a sample of 124 directors of Colombian firms, the information is analyzed using Structural Equation Models through the Partial Least Squares method (SEM-PLS).FindingsThe results show that intellectual capital has a positive relationship with organizational ambidexterity and that market culture presents a positive mediating effect in the said relationship, while the mediating effects of adhocracy culture, clan culture and hierarchy culture are not significant.Practical implicationsDirectors can favor the development of organizational ambidexterity by investing in the intellectual capital of their firms and by promoting the development of market culture attributes.Originality/valueThis work contributes empirical evidence on the mediating role of organizational culture in the relationship between intellectual capital and ambidexterity, highlighting the importance of market culture over other types of culture for the simultaneous development of exploration and exploitation capabilities, in the context of an emerging Latin American economy such as Colombia.


2020 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 217-228
Author(s):  
Tarek Eldomiaty ◽  
Rasha Hammam ◽  
Rawan El Bakry

Purpose Financial inclusion is an approach for mobilizing saving and facilitating investments that help promote economic development and pave the way for sustainable development. This paper aims to examine the impact of world governance indicators (WGIs) on the improvement of financial inclusion across world economies. Design/methodology/approach This paper uses the global database of financial inclusion indicators (global findex) for the years 2011, 2014 and 2017. The WGIs are used as proxies for the effects of governmental institutional arrangements. Using panel data analysis, a fixed generalized linear model is estimated for four common financial indicators; namely, borrowed from a financial institution, saved at a financial institution, credit card and debit card ownership. Findings The empirical results reveal that control of corruption, government effectiveness, political stability and voice and accountability are the significant WGIs that influence financial inclusion significantly. Originality/value This paper contributes to the literature in two ways. First, this paper offers validating the results previously reported in related studies. Second, this paper offers robust estimates of the effects of the institutional WGIs on the promotion of financial inclusion.


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