Tensions to shape, but not derail, Ivory Coast poll

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Civil War ◽  
Ivory Coast ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
User Fees ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Foreign Investors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High User ◽  
Infrastructure Investments

Significance The most serious challenger to President Alassane Ouattara's re-election, N'Guessan's candidacy probably marks the end of election boycotts by FPI, but rifts linger from the 2010-11 civil war. Impacts Large-scale infrastructure investments will facilitate medium-term economic growth, despite possible volatility around the election. Foreign investors are likely to refrain from making major decisions before the poll but inflows will pick up in 2016. High user fees for the new Henri Konan Bedie toll bridge in Abidjan will probably reduce congestion by commuters. High global cocoa prices and robust output (Ivory Coast is the world's largest producer) will buoy government revenues.

Even if politicians deal, Lebanon faces a bleak future

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Aid ◽  
Rural Areas ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Economic Reforms ◽  
Financial Strain ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
Food Shortages

Significance The audit and wider structural economic reforms are preconditions for urgently needed foreign aid. Economic conditions in Lebanon are still worsening, with power cuts, food shortages and rising poverty. Impacts A new government would allow reform planning to resume and temporarily stall the decline of the currency. The easing of the global pandemic will somewhat reduce the financial strain, as Lebanon reopens its economy. Soaring poverty rates could provoke large-scale ‘bread riots’ in the coming months. Further devaluation of the currency will make poor Lebanese more dependent on sectarian protection and strengthen patronage. If the situation worsens, sectarian rural areas could revert to warlordism in the medium term.

The cultural dividend: a hidden source of economic growth in emerging countries

2017 ◽  
Vol 24 (4) ◽  
pp. 590-616 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shaomin Li ◽  
Seung Ho Park ◽  
David Duden Selover
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Labor Productivity ◽  
Productivity Growth ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Cultural Factors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Productivity ◽  
Large Scale Data ◽  
Productivity Gains

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to develop the theoretical linkage between culture and economic growth and empirically test the relationship by measuring culture and how it affects labor productivity. Design/methodology/approach This study uses a cross-section study of developing countries and regresses economic productivity growth on a set of control variables and cultural factors. Findings It is found that three cultural factors, economic attitudes, political attitudes, and attitudes towards the family, affect economic productivity growth. Originality/value Many economists ignore culture as a factor in economic growth, either because they discount the value of culture or because they have no simple way to quantify culture, resulting in the role of culture being under-researched. The study is the first to extensively examine the role of culture in productivity growth using large-scale data sources. The authors show that culture plays an important role in productivity gains across countries, contributing to the study of the effects of culture on economic development, and that culture can be empirically measured and linked to an activity that directly affects the economic growth – labor productivity.

West Africa ports compete for regional dominance

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
West Africa ◽  
Private Sector ◽  
Ivory Coast ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Infrastructure Projects ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Port Infrastructure ◽  
Port Expansion

Subject West Africa ports development. Significance Economic growth and rising trade volumes with Asian countries are straining West Africa's commercial port capacities. Various port infrastructure projects are underway as states compete to become shipping gateways for the region. Ever larger container ships are also forcing states to offer deeper water berth ports. Ivory Coast, Ghana and Nigeria are leading the race. Impacts Low oil prices should not affect port expansion as the costs are borne by competing private sector operators. The question of whether the operator-driven port model delivers equivalent benefits to individual economies will grow as profits rise. European private sector port operators continue to dominate, but competition from Asian companies such as DP World is growing.

Philippines institutional erosion likely to intensify

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Political Power ◽  
Strong Support ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Internal Security ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Public ◽  
Institutional Stability

Significance Duterte is a powerful president with strong support among elected Philippine politicians and the public. Nevertheless, his methods are stoking controversy with concerns of an 'elected dictatorship' which could undermine Philippine judicial, legislative and executive institutions' integrity. Impacts Investor concern is unlikely unless they perceive that the crime crackdown is out of control. Growing personalisation of political power will weaken the congress, including its capacity and will to scrutinise laws. The medium-term risk to institutional stability and credibility could see ratings downgrades. Equally, a successful crime crackdown could aid economic growth and internal security.

Higher Chile growth faces domestic and external risks

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Economic Growth ◽  
The United States ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Growing Economy ◽  
Fiscal Austerity ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Imf

Significance After four sluggish years, economic growth has been picking up steadily since mid-2017. However, as noted by Moody’s, medium-term prospects remain hampered by reliance on copper exports as, in the shorter term, has also been apparent in the context of the tariff war between the United States and China. Impacts According to the IMF, Chile will be the region’s fastest-growing economy this year, just ahead of Peru. The government will walk tightrope between a need for fiscal austerity and social demands. The tariff war will underscore the pressing need for diversification out of commodity exports.

Fidesz victory will bring more Hungary-EU conflict

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Political Influence ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type

Significance The ruling party’s landslide promises Hungary more of the same. However, a degree of uncertainty lingers in the short-to-medium term. The party has structural weaknesses, but to exploit them, the opposition needs unity and a more articulate vision. Impacts After such a crippling defeat, large-scale opposition reorganisation is inevitable. Central Europe's Eurosceptic populist bloc will strengthen, accelerating moves towards an EU of various integration ‘circles’. Russia’s and China’s economic and political influence in Europe will remain stable, with Hungary committed to friendship with both.

Corruption may undermine Kenyan government credibility

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil Society ◽  
Political System ◽  
Zero Tolerance ◽  
The Political ◽  
Public Confidence ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Foreign Investors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Government Institutions

Significance Kenya has been rocked by a string of corruption scandals in government institutions over recent weeks. The episode has served as a powerful reminder to both ordinary Kenyans and foreign investors that public-sector corruption remains pervasive -- and that President Uhuru Kenyatta’s government has failed to make significant inroads on the issue despite its rhetorical claims of ‘zero tolerance’. Impacts The lack of progress in anti-corruption efforts will raise concern among donor countries. Along with other barriers, evidence of corruption will limit FDI and constrain GDP growth in the medium term. Failure to tackle graft will erode public confidence in the political system, leading to further civil society protests.

Modi faces race against time to make reforms work

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Trade Unions ◽  
Foreign Investors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Downward Spiral

Significance Modi came to power promising liberalising reforms and has staked his reputation on creating a USD5tn economy by 2024. The economy has taken a severe hit from the fallout of the COVID-19 crisis and appears to be in a downward spiral. Impacts Anti-government protests involving farmers’ groups and trade unions will proliferate, but they will not threaten Modi’s hold on power. Modi will step up appeals to foreign investors as he tries to restore economic growth. The alliance led by Modi’s party may have a majority in parliament’s upper house by 2022.

Go West initiative may increase China’s self-reliance

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Western China ◽  
Foreign Firms ◽  
High Tech ◽  
Foreign Investors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Core ◽  
Self Reliance ◽  
Ethnic Tensions ◽  
Self Sufficiency

Significance It is also designed to enable greater reliance on domestic resources and markets in an increasingly hostile international geopolitical environment. Infrastructure is the core of the strategy. Impacts The most visible impact will be the construction of infrastructure, especially in transport, energy and the high-tech sector. Foreign investors are likely to play little if any role in Go West. Some foreign firms may benefit if costs fall and incomes rise in Western China; others will lose out if China’s self-sufficiency increases. Economic growth will not reduce ethnic tensions in Xinjiang and Tibet if ethnic Han benefit disproportionately.

ECB sovereign QE could support inflation trends

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Euro Area ◽  
Risk Sharing ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
The United States ◽  
Wealth Effects ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
European Institutions ◽  
The Us ◽  
Asset Backed Securities

Significance The programme expands existing purchases of asset-backed securities and covered bonds with large-scale buying of bonds issued by euro-area governments, agencies and European institutions. Purchases will amount to a combined total of 60 billion euros (69 billion dollars) per month, starting in March. They will continue until at least September 2016 -- or until there is progress towards the central bank's medium-term inflation goal. Impacts The larger than expected size of the programme will be achievable thanks to partial risk sharing among national central banks. Wealth effects will be smaller than in the United States and United Kingdom, as euro-area capital markets are less deep. The QE programme will amount to 12% of euro-area GDP, while the US programme was larger, at 25% of GDP.

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