Nigeria readies for far-reaching, complex oil reform

Significance The announcement mirrors the structural reforms first envisaged in the long-delayed Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB). President Muhammadu Buhari's policy direction in the oil and gas sector will determine the economy's stability in a global context of declining oil prices, set the pace for other important economic reforms, and be indicative of the government's ability to rein in vested interests. Impacts Brent crude's latest price drop from early June reveals persistent downside demand pressures. Nigeria has partially offset the slowdown in exports to the United States; Indian refineries recently became the largest buyers. Economic vulnerabilities will persist so long as the government fails to diversify its base of foreign exchange receipts.

Significance As in 2020 and 2021, this projected growth will be driven by the ongoing expansion of the oil and gas sector, and related investment and state revenues. These rising revenues will support the government’s ambitious national development plans, which include both increased social and infrastructure spending. Impacts The government will prioritise enhancing the oil and gas investment framework. Investment into joint oil and gas infrastructure with Suriname will benefit the growing oil industry in both countries. The expansionary fiscal policy may lead to a rise in inflation, leading to further calls for wage increases. In the medium term, strong growth in the oil and gas sector could lead to increased climate change activism in the country.


Subject Proposed reforms in the oil and gas sector. Significance In the face of strong resource nationalism, President Joko 'Jokowi' Widodo's government faces strong pressure to improve the balance between public control and private participation in the oil and gas sector. To that end, the government proposes to amend the 2001 oil and gas law. Its draft amendment proposes, most notably, that state enterprises should control all production operations, while private investors provide technology and capital. The government is also considering revisions to the upstream regime, which is currently based on production-sharing contracts (PSCs). These changes require parliamentary approval. Impacts Private firms, especially foreign ones, are likely to delay fresh investment in energy assets, given the oil and gas market glut. Indonesia's vast natural resource endowment will attract private interest, but regulatory uncertainty will be an abiding problem. Transparency in the extractive sector will continue to rise at the national level, but local level reforms will be slow.


Significance Another field, Chouech Essaida, has been shut since February 28 because of labour unrest. Demonstrations extend beyond the oil and gas sector. Months of protests across Tunisia are beginning to exact a toll on the coalition government as demonstrators return to the streets of the capital to challenge the latest effort to pass a controversial ‘economic reconciliation’ bill that would in effect give amnesty to businessmen who engaged in corrupt practices under the former regime. Impacts The unity of the coalition government will come under further pressure as ministers struggle to respond to demonstrations. Political parties risk becoming more isolated from the electorate without major internal reforms. The government will be tempted to return to more authoritarian techniques of rule as protests deepen.


Subject US-Iran cyberwars Significance Microsoft on October 4 revealed that Iranian hackers are targeting US President Donald Trump's 2020 re-election campaign. It also emerged last month that the United States had carried out a covert cyberattack on Iranian systems in late September after an attack on Saudi oil facilities widely attributed to Iran. Washington had debated responding to Iran’s shooting down of a US surveillance drone on June 20 with air strikes, but eventually settled on a cyberattack on an Iranian database. Impacts Given Trump’s sanctions pressure on Iran’s nuclear programme, Tehran will have an interest in preventing Trump from getting re-elected. Iranian disinformation efforts will intensify ahead of the 2020 US presidential election. Iran may draw inspiration from US cyberattacks and seek to disrupt US companies that are poorly defended. Attacks are unlikely to focus on the financial sector as banks have made significant progress in increasing their cybersecurity. More likely are targets in the oil and gas sector and utilities companies.


Significance A report released by international NGO Global Witness in January found that violence against such individuals was growing, and was frequently linked to vested interests in the political and military spheres. While the murder of high-profile indigenous activist Berta Caceres last March -- cited in Amnesty International's Annual Report released yesterday -- prompted the government to pledge a crackdown on such violence, the trend does not yet appear to be reversing. Impacts A new anti-corruption accord with the Organization of American States should underpin Hernandez’s domestic security credentials. Increased criminal deportations from the United States could have a serious impact on security. The international attention generated by Global Witness may encourage the Mission against Corruption and Impunity to shift its priorities.


Significance While there is scepticism over the government’s figures, officially recorded deaths are low at 51. However, all sectors of the economy have been negatively impacted -- most notably the pivotal oil and gas sector. While President Teodoro Obiang’s government has pinpointed reforms to help the economy climb out of recession, political openings may be further restricted. Impacts The 78-year-old president is unlikely to hand over power before the 2023 polls. The government will seek closer relations with China for capital financing. Growing economic hardship could drive a rise in offshore piracy. The decision to halt construction of a border wall will ease tensions with neighbouring Cameroon.


Significance The economy has faced major challenges recently: recurring disruptions to the oil and gas sector, state fragmentation and war between the government in Tripoli and the armed forces led by eastern commander Khalifa Haftar. Following agreements last year between Tripoli and Haftar to lift a nine-month oil blockade, oil production recovered sharply in the last quarter of 2020, reaching 1.28 million barrels per day (b/d) in December. Impacts The government may make ambitious new pledges on public and infrastructure spending. Major new projects will still be slow to materialise, though the prime minister is likely to initiate rebuilding projects. Plans for reconstruction projects will probably accelerate, but implementation will lag. The oil sector will manage infrastructure upgrades efficiently.


Significance This would displace the incumbent Nationale Democratische Partij (National Democratic Party, NDP) of President Desire ‘Desi’ Bouterse, which has been in power since 2010. Bouterse has challenged the results and called for a recount, indicating that any transfer of power will be fraught and vulnerable to political negotiations and potential unrest. Impacts Prolonged political uncertainty will exacerbate the negative economic impacts of the COVID-19 shutdown. Electoral protests could deter some investment, such as in the nascent oil and gas sector. A successful push by Bouterse to remain in power could embolden the government in neighbouring Guyana to do the same.


2008 ◽  
Vol 45 (3) ◽  
pp. 653 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonathan Horlick ◽  
Joe Cyr ◽  
Scott Reynolds ◽  
Andrew Behrman

Under the United States Alien Tort Statute, which permits non-U.S. citizens to bring lawsuits in U.S. courts for human rights violations that are violations of the law of nations, plaintiffs have filed claims against multinational oil and gas corporations for the direct or complicit commission of such violations carried out by the government of the country in which the corporation operated. In addition to exercising jurisdiction over U.S. corporations, U.S. courts have exercised jurisdiction in cases involving non-U.S. defendants for alleged wrongful conduct against non-U.S. plaintiffs committed outside the U.S.The exercise of jurisdiction by U.S. courts over non-U.S. defendants for alleged wrongful conduct against non-U.S. plaintiffs committed outside of the U.S. raises serious questions as to the jurisdictional foundation on which the power of U.S. courts to adjudicate them rests. Defences that foreign defendants can raise against the exercise of jurisdiction by the U.S. courts are an objection to the extraterritorial assertion of jurisdiction, the act of state doctrine, the political question doctrine, forum non conveniens, and the principle of comity. These defences are bolstered by the support of the defendant’s home government and other governments.


Significance The government will appeal the rulings, which follow action by renewables firms. With constitutional battles over energy investments already unfolding, the future of Mexico’s energy framework has been thrown into turmoil. Impacts Increasing energy prices will probably push inflation above Banxico’s upper target limit of 4%. AMLO’s apparent disregard for international trade agreements will strain relations with the United States. AMLO’s pro-austerity fiscal stance could take a toll on his popularity.


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