Syriza is likely to win autumn elections in Greece

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Euro Area ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Way ◽  
The Imf ◽  
Opposition Parties

Significance The reforms will allow the release of fresh funding for banks and a bridging loan to meet debt obligations to the IMF and ECB. A quarter of Syriza deputies rebelled, but mainstream opposition parties voted in favour, paving the way for negotiations with euro-area partners for a third bailout. Another package must be passed on July 22 when again there is expected to be a rift in Syriza's ranks. Impacts The dissenters say they support the government but not the measures it has been required to implement to secure bailout aid. Tsipras must decide whether to live with such uncertainty or discipline the dissenters forcing an early election. He will shuffle his cabinet to replace ministers who failed to support the legislation in parliament.

Uganda’s opposition will gain ground despite poll loss

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Youth Unemployment ◽  
National Politics ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Legal Challenges ◽  
The Government ◽  
Opposition Parties

Significance The opposition has rejected the results and is preparing legal challenges to Museveni’s victory. Impacts NRM internal cohesion will fray as Museveni becomes a more polarising figure in national politics. The NRM will increasingly try to co-opt opponents to neutralise the growing momentum and collaboration among opposition parties. The government will likely launch developmental efforts to tackle youth unemployment and thus avert unrest.

Guatemala’s economy on the way to recovery

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Latin America ◽  
Violent Crime ◽  
Business Environment ◽  
Policy Support ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Containment Measures ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Way

Significance National GDP nevertheless contracted by just 1.5% in 2020 -- less than almost any other country in Latin America. Resilient remittances and exports, coupled with unprecedented policy support, have mitigated the effects of the pandemic and subsequent containment measures, leaving the country better placed for recovery than its neighbours. Impacts Enduring poverty, inequality and violent crime, and the impacts of accelerating climate change, will drive further migration from Guatemala. The government will pursue banking law reforms, to reduce risks to financial activities in the post-pandemic business environment. Infighting and corruption scandals will hinder the opposition's ability to benefit from the decline of the president's popularity.

De samenvoeging van de gemeenten : Studie van het besluitvormingsproces

Res Publica ◽  
1970 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 221-244
Author(s):  
Rudolf Maes
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Local Government ◽  
The Other ◽  
Socialist Party ◽  
The Government ◽  
Linguistic Groups ◽  
The One ◽  
The Way ◽  
Opposition Parties

In the years 1975-1976 the Belgian government has given high priority to the restructuring of local government, resp. by the means of mergers of communes : the number of communes has decreased by that way from 2,359 to 596.In the decision-making emphasized were the initiatives taken by the Minister of the Interior as wel! on the domain of the elaboration of the proposals to delimitate the territory of the new communes as on the domain of the defining of the terms of execution with regard to the personnel, the finances, the transition of goods, etc.  About the proposals on the delimitation of the territory the local governmentscould only give advice ; they have been sanctioned by the legislative assemblees at the end of 1975 after rather difficult and heated debates.During this period an important resistance developed : on the one side from the communal milieu itself and on the other side from the opposition parties, esp. the Belgian Socialist Party not participating in the government that had made the drawing of the new map of communes according to a broad plan to its aim.Nevertheless, the decision-making also has to be seen from the fact that the opposition parties agreed with the principle of the mergers : they mainly contested the way in which the mergers were executed.The abolition of the federations of communes around the Brussels agglomeration, decided in the same context, has to be seen in the light of the typical Belgian problem of the coexistence of different linguistic groups.

German shift on austerity would risk 'wrong' lessons

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Euro Area ◽  
Credit Rating ◽  
Bond Yields ◽  
Trade Surplus ◽  
Fiscal Stimulus ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Black Spots ◽  
Angela Merkel ◽  
Deficit Financing ◽  
The Government

Significance Chancellor Angela Merkel faces a rising tide of euro-area members in favour of a policy shift away from austerity and possibly towards more favourable debt deals for euro-area black spots. Adding to the pressure for change, her own voters may prefer a slower pace of debt reduction: German government debt has already been falling as a percentage of GDP -- from over 80% in 2010 to under 77% at the end of 2014 -- and debt is starting to fall in absolute terms as well. The government has delivered enough stabilisation (ie, austerity) and growth to tame the 2009-10 debt surge and maintain its AAA credit rating, but is now over-achieving in terms of its own tough targets because the greater-than-expected fall in debt interest costs is pushing the budget into surplus. Some modest spending adjustments look likely to curb this windfall surplus, yet many will argue that more could be done to re-energise the sluggish economy -- and boost the euro-area. Impacts The plummeting euro will provoke another rise in German exports (already near 50% of GDP) and tensions over Germany's bulging trade surplus. While a fiscal stimulus and/or higher wage payments could address these tensions and raise imports, there is no sign of such action. Germany's critics are gathering support to end austerity, to the point of ignoring the risks of deficit financing and reneging on debts. Ultra-low German bond yields, encouraged by the prospective supply fall, are dragging down euro-area yields, delivering wider benefits.

Ghana's IMF bailout to persist despite souring ties

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Bank ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Credit Rating ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Bank Financing ◽  
Electricity Crisis ◽  
Manufacturing Activity ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Imf

Significance Earlier this month, the government passed a bill allowing for central bank financing of the budget deficit, contravening a core requirement in its agreement with the Fund. Earlier breaches led to the fourth tranche of the bailout (worth 114 million dollars) being withheld. Impacts Other donors will withhold aid disbursements until the impasse between Accra and the IMF is resolved. The electricity crisis will continue to undermine manufacturing activity, contributing to disappointing GDP growth. Ivory Coast's pro-business reforms mean it could attract investors deterred by Ghana's economic woes. Prolonged tensions with the IMF coupled with a deterioration its Ghana's fiscal metrics may drive a credit rating downgrade.

Port expansion will aid Morocco's trade hub ambitions

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Performance Index ◽  
Business Environment ◽  
Election Campaign ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The World ◽  
The Government ◽  
Policy Priority ◽  
Logistics Performance Index ◽  
Port Expansion ◽  
The Imf

Subject Logistics performance. Significance Morocco's aspiration to become a trade and industrial hub for the Atlantic and Mediterranean basins has received a setback with the publication of the World Bank's 2016 Logistics Performance Index on June 28. Morocco's ranking fell to 86th place, from 50th in 2012. Impacts Morocco's fall in logistics performance and corruption rankings could be used to attack the government in the election campaign. It could also provide an incentive to reform the business environment, which the IMF has highlighted as a policy priority. Morocco's advantages compared to its regional peers will outweigh investor concerns over the rankings.

Hardening German attitudes on Greece risk a rupture

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Bank ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Capital Controls ◽  
Financial Assistance ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Bank Deposits ◽  
Reform Programme ◽  
System Collapse ◽  
Greek Government ◽  
The Government

Significance Pressure is intensifying on the negotiators representing the Greek government and its creditors -- most importantly Germany -- to reach some form of agreement allowing the release of sufficient financial assistance for Greece to meet its payment obligations due by the end of June. However, the governing Greek coalition does not appear stable enough to adopt the reform programme demanded by its creditors. Meanwhile, German economic opinion on Greece is hardening, in the gathering belief that the risks to the rest of the euro-area from any concessions to Athens are now greater than those of a possible rupture. Impacts If the Greek negotiations drag on, the government may have to introduce capital controls to stem the outflow of bank deposits. Greece's central bank remains reliant on the ECB to continue authorising ELA, but opposition to ELA in Germany is growing. If the ECB withdrew ELA, Athens's choices would be to meet its creditors' demands, see a financial system collapse or exit the euro.

Higher Chile growth faces domestic and external risks

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Economic Growth ◽  
The United States ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Growing Economy ◽  
Fiscal Austerity ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Imf

Significance After four sluggish years, economic growth has been picking up steadily since mid-2017. However, as noted by Moody’s, medium-term prospects remain hampered by reliance on copper exports as, in the shorter term, has also been apparent in the context of the tariff war between the United States and China. Impacts According to the IMF, Chile will be the region’s fastest-growing economy this year, just ahead of Peru. The government will walk tightrope between a need for fiscal austerity and social demands. The tariff war will underscore the pressing need for diversification out of commodity exports.

Guinea’s constitutional crisis may escalate further

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil Society ◽  
Public Sector ◽  
International Investment ◽  
Education Sector ◽  
Legislative Elections ◽  
National Front ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Climate ◽  
The Government ◽  
Opposition Parties

Significance The National Front for the Defence of the Constitution (FNDC) coalition, a grouping of opposition parties and civil society groups, has vowed to continue protests until the government drops its plans. A referendum over a new constitution could be held as early as December alongside planned legislative elections. Impacts The crisis could put the economy under growing pressure, resulting in reduced international investment and potential aid freezes. The worsening economic climate could see public-sector strikes intensify, particularly in the education sector. Persistent protests may trigger defections from the governing Rally of the Guinean People (RPG) and its allies. A potential compromise is that Conde pursues a new constitution as a legacy project, while agreeing to abandon any third-term bid.

Nicaragua pandemic downplaying is a political gamble

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Social Impacts ◽  
Political Support ◽  
Health Crisis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Government ◽  
Trade And Investment ◽  
Economic And Social Impacts ◽  
Opposition Parties

Significance Some initiatives have been introduced to help counter the economic and social impacts of the pandemic, but the government’s actions appear to be driven less by the need to address the health crisis than by a desire to shore up political support ahead of elections next year. Impacts Opposition parties are beginning to forge electoral alliances in the hope of benefitting from popular frustration with the government. Trade and investment into Nicaragua will remain minimal, with external firms wary about the potential prevalence of COVID-19. The outcome of the US presidential elections in November will affect the potential for US aid and investment.

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