Multipartner military exercises may become flashpoints

Significance The exercise was described by NATO as a "show of force", while the Dutch foreign minister referred to it as "a warning" to Russian President Vladimir Putin. Multinational military exercises have become more frequent over the past 25 years. The United States participates in dozens of exercises annually and spends billions of dollars to do so. However, there are significant questions over the utility and purpose of such multinational exercises, which serve both a practical function for the militaries involved, as well as a diplomatic signaling effect. Impacts Like BALTOPS, regular exercises will assume greater salience when their regional focus sees new external threats. This could prompt policy changes from adversaries, as they attempt to respond to the exercises. As a result, exercises designed to deter may risk escalating tensions.

Significance It had threatened to do so during a fortnight of ever more violent rhetoric against South Korea and its president, spearheaded by supreme leader Kim Jong-un’s sister, Kim Yo-jong. Pyongyang now threatens to nullify the 2018 peace accord by reactivating vacant border guard posts and holding military exercises near the Demilitarised Zone. Impacts President Donald Trump’s impulsiveness and a live dispute over history between Seoul and Tokyo hamper a coordinated response. Trump is unlikely to perceive yielding to pressure from Kim as something that will boost his chances of re-election. Tokyo’s recent suspension of a new missile defence project will reduce its ability to protect the United States from North Korean missiles. Increasing hostility between Washington and Beijing may reduce the latter’s willingness to put pressure on Pyongyang.


Subject Budapest's balancing between traditional and non-traditional ties. Significance Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban recently received two important visitors in Budapest: German Chancellor Angela Merkel (February 2) and Russian President Vladimir Putin (February 17). The short interval between them is symbolic of Hungary's foreign-policy balancing act. However, the Fidesz government's 'Eastern opening' strategy has increasingly shown its limits in the past year, prompting Orban to make gestures towards his Western allies. Impacts Central European allies are likely to distance themselves further from Hungary following Putin's visit to Budapest. Despite addressing discriminatory taxes on TV advertising, political control will continue to limit foreign media investments. Anti-Russian sentiment within Hungarian public opinion may open a window of opportunity for opposition parties.


Subject China's plan to blacklist foreign firms for denying supplies to Chinese customers. Significance China’s Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) is responding to US export controls by creating a new tool to punish foreign businesses that curtail supplies to Chinese enterprises for non-commercial reasons: the Unreliable Entity List (UEL). China has not shied away from targeting foreign businesses for political reasons in the past. The UEL gives it a much more powerful tool to do so. Impacts The United States is the target for now, but once in place the UEL can easily be used against other countries. An export control bill now in the works will hasten the decoupling of China and the West. Foreign firms in sensitive sectors may opt to curtail their presence in China preventatively, or curry greater favour with Beijing.


2004 ◽  
Vol 37 (4) ◽  
pp. 429-459 ◽  
Author(s):  
Galia Golan

Although Russian President Vladimir Putin has been faced with numerous crises since coming to office in 2000, most importantly the war in Chechnya, the Iraq War was the first major international crisis with which his administration was confronted. As in the case of Kosovo for Yeltsin, and the Gulf War for Gorbachev, the Russian President had to deal with conflicting domestic pressures and apparently still more conflicting Russian national and international interests. Indeed, one result of such a situation was a post-war accusation that Putin actually had no policy or at least no consistent policy with regard to the Iraq crisis [Golan, G., 1992. Gorbachev’s difficult time in the Gulf. Political Science Quarterly 107 (2), 213–230]. One may remember similar accusations of Gorbachev’s ‘‘zigzaging’’ in the Gulf War and claims that the Yeltsin government failed to forge a Kasovo policy altogether [Levitin, O., 2000. Inside Moscow’s Kosovo muddle. Survival 42 (1), 130]. Yet, a certain pattern did appear to repeat itself in the Iraqi crisis, namely, pre-war efforts to prevent a military conflict from breaking out, then gradual escalation of rhetoric if not actual involvement, and finally gradual but relatively rapid retreat to conciliatory posture toward the United States (in all three crises). Moreover, Putin was indeed consistent throughout the pre-crisis, crisis and post-crisis periods in his opposition to the Americans’ use of force against Iraq and in the need to remain within a United Nations framework. Actually, one might ask (and we shall below) why Putin did not abandon the first part of this policy, in order to maintain the second component, when it became certain that the U.S. was going to attack, with or without UN Security Council approval.


2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
David J. Finch ◽  
Norm O'Reilly ◽  
David Legg ◽  
Nadège Levallet ◽  
Emma Fody

PurposeAs an industry, sport business (SB) has seen significant growth since the early 2000s. Concurrently, the number of postsecondary sport management programs has also expanded dramatically. However, there remain concerns about whether these programs are meeting the demands of both employers and graduates. To address these concerns, this study examines the credential and competency demands of the SB labor market in the United States.Design/methodology/approachResearchers conducted an analysis using a broad sample of employment postings (N = 613) for SB positions from two different years, 2008 and 2018.FindingsResults support that a complex set of SB qualifications exist, and the credentials and competencies included in SB employment postings have evolved over the past decade.Originality/valueA noteworthy finding is that meta-skills are found to be particularly important for employability, including items such as communication, emotional intelligence and analytical thinking and adaptability.


2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 296-314 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hélène B. Ducros

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to explore a grassroot festival in rural France organized around the concept of soup. The annual fête de la soupe held in a village in Auvergne provides a small-scale example of the ways in which space, time and festivalization interact in placemaking. Design/methodology/approach Ethnographic research highlights the motivations and experiences of the organizers and volunteer-participants, as well as some of the organizational challenges. Findings Revealing that the profit motive and economic outcomes are not dominant, this paper shows instead that the fête constitutes a space of relation-building between place and people, between people themselves and an introspective moment over the past and future of place as “rural”. While preserving rurality symbolized and mediated by the exchange of soup as the ultimate peasant dish, the festival is also an opportunity for villagers to revitalize the rural and showcase it as a place of creativity. Originality/value The study addresses the experience of volunteers and organizers in festivals, uses qualitative methods to do so and focuses on festivals in the rural setting, filling three gaps identified by others in the literature.


Significance Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba on November 29 called for action "now, not later" to "deter" Russia. The same day, US Defense Department spokesman John Kirby said the Pentagon was watching Russian troop movements near Ukraine "with great concern". Fears of imminent conflict stem not just from the number of troops and tanks moved closer to Ukraine, but from Moscow's more than usually hostile rhetoric and its deliberate ambiguity, through hints that Ukraine may provoke it into some form of action. Impacts The threat of Russian action will accelerate and expand the defence assistance Ukraine gets from the United States and other NATO members. Moscow would hope its importance as a gas supplier mitigates EU sanctions imposed for military action against Ukraine. The Ukrainian government will be tempted to use the Russian threat to curb domestic opposition.


Author(s):  
Gerard Toal

When U.S. President George W. Bush first met Russian president Vladimir Putin, he praised him as “an honest, straightforward man who loves his country.” Bush indicated that, more than a decade after the Cold War ended, it was “time to move beyond suspicion and towards straight talk.” Thereafter, both presidents established a good working relationship based, in part, on candor and frankness. Putin’s speech at the Munich security conference did not please his hosts, but it had the virtue of clarifying important differences. Similarly, his speech to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)–Russia Council meeting in Bucharest was forthright and blunt. The compromise language of the Bucharest Declaration—Georgia and Ukraine “will become members of NATO”—was a personal rebuke to the Russian leader, for he had made it clear that NATO expansion to these countries was a “red line” for Russia. Two years earlier Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov warned publicly that Georgia and Ukraine joining NATO could lead to “a collossal shift in global geopolitics.” But those promoting NATO membership for both believed the Russian position amounted to anachronistic sphere-of-influence thinking, and they were determined to prevent what they described as a “Russian veto” on NATO expansion. Putin’s remarks on Georgia in Bucharest—discussed in chapter 4—attracted few headlines. His alleged comments on Ukraine, however, were viewed with alarm at the time by some and considered ominously prophetic by many after 2008, and especially so in the spring of 2014. According to an unnamed NATO country official, an irate Putin turned to Bush and said: “George, you do realize that Ukraine is not even a state. What is Ukraine? Part of its territory is Eastern Europe but the greater part is a gift from us!” Putin reportedly then indicated that should Ukraine join NATO, the state may cease to exist. Russia would then tear off Crimea and eastern Ukraine from the rest of the country. Six years later it appeared Russia was doing precisely this.


Significance Mass protests took place yesterday in Niger's capital against the insurgency, while Chad's military announced training exercises with the United States to "warm up" for the fight. Over the past year, Boko Haram militants have encroached from north-east Nigeria into remote border areas of Cameroon, Chad and Niger. The regionalisation of the insurgency and the response will see the intensity and impact of the conflict increase. Impacts Population displacements could become a significant problem, bringing added instability risks to the border region. The risk of attacks on international aid organisation personnel will grow as they seek to deliver aid to affected communities. The conflict will not yet impinge on oil operations in Chad and Niger; existing fields and infrastructure are not close to affected areas.


Subject Russian agriculture Significance On June 24 President Vladimir Putin signed a decree to prolong Russia's food embargo in retaliation for the continuation of Western sanctions. Putin said the counter-sanctions would benefit domestic producers. The extension will last until August 2016. Russia's food embargo was initially introduced in August 2014 against EU members, the United States, Canada, Australia and Norway. The August 2014 embargo applied to most imports of fruit, vegetables, meat, fish and dairy and milk products. Impacts Russia will remain a large global exporter of grain, but increased investment will be needed, particularly on machinery. Moscow may expand the embargo to new sectors to inflict greater pain on Western producers. Simultaneously, it will seek to increase agricultural ties with non-Western markets to ensure food security.


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