Some Cameron demands will meet EU resistance

Significance Cameron is gauging his counterparts' positions before presenting his reform agenda at the June 25-26 EU summit. He seeks the other EU states' support for a package of reforms that will enable him to claim that he has secured a better deal for the United Kingdom in the EU, and thus campaign for an 'in' vote in the EU membership referendum he has promised by end-2017. Cameron is seeking to build backing for some reforms that would apply across the EU, rather than only seek special treatment for the United Kingdom. However, some of the reforms he has mooted are unacceptable to many other EU states. Impacts The greatest impact of the reforms that Cameron secures could be on the scale of the split in the Conservative Party over EU membership. Some of Cameron's reforms could bring important changes across the bloc, as well as set precedents for other member states. The UK renegotiation will generate bargaining between member states that will affect their negotiation of other issues.

Subject The package of reforms on a new EU-UK relationship. Significance The agreement between the United Kingdom and its EU partners sets the stage for the UK referendum on EU membership, which Prime Minister David Cameron has set for June 23. Cameron said he had negotiated new terms that would allow the United Kingdom to remain in the EU. Impacts The deal bolsters the campaign to remain in the EU, but the referendum outcome is still highly uncertain. The deal will only come into effect if the outcome is for remaining, forestalling a second referendum for better terms. If the outcome is for leaving, a new relationship with the EU would have to be negotiated during a two-year transition period. It would also probably lead to a second Scottish independence referendum and UK break-up.


Significance The process has been plunged into further uncertainty by the outcome of the June 8 UK general election, which has sparked renewed debate about what kind of Brexit the United Kingdom wants and what kind of future economic relationship with the EU it should seek to negotiate. Impacts The UK government’s weakness is a cause for concern elsewhere in the EU, raising fears that it may not be able to compromise on key issues. Many businesses will begin implementing strategies for dealing with Brexit early next year, before knowing the outcome of the negotiations. Pressure for a lengthy transition period will continue to build. The political turmoil and slowing economic growth in the United Kingdom may increase support for EU membership elsewhere in the bloc.


Author(s):  
Olha Ovechkina

In connection with the decision to withdraw the UK from the EU a number of companies will need to take into account that from 1 January 2021 EU law will no longer apply to the United Kingdom and will become a "third country" for EU Member States, unless the provisions of bilateral agreements or multilateral trade agreements. This means that the four European freedoms (movement of goods, services, labor and capital) will no longer apply to UK companies to the same extent as they did during the UK's EU membership. The purpose of the article is to study, first of all, the peculiarities of the influence of Great Britain's withdrawal from the European Union on the legal regulation of the status of European legal entities. Brexit results in the inability to register European companies and European economic interest groups in the UK. Such companies already registered before 01.01.2021 have the opportunity to move their place of registration to an EU Member State. These provisions are defined in Regulations 2018 (2018/1298) and Regulations 2018 (2018/1299).British companies with branches in EU Member States will now be subject to the rules applicable to third-country companies, which provide additional information on their activities. In the EU, many countries apply the criterion of actual location, which causes, among other things, the problem of non-recognition of legal entities established in the country where the criterion of incorporation is used (including the United Kingdom), at the same time as the governing bodies of such legal entities the state where the settlement criterion is applied. Therefore, to reduce the likelihood of possible non-recognition of British companies, given the location of the board of such a legal entity in the state where the residency criterion applies, it seems appropriate to consider reincarnation at the actual location of such a company. Reducing the risks of these negative consequences in connection with Brexit on cross-border activities of legal entities is possible by concluding interstate bilateral and multilateral agreements that would contain unified rules on conflict of law regulation of the status of legal entities.


Subject Prospects for Europe in the third quarter. Significance For the rest of June and the third quarter, the EU will grapple with the future positions within the bloc of two member states, the United Kingdom and Greece. The period will see the resolution, one way or another, of the immediate crisis in Greece's relations with its international creditors. The way in which this takes place will have profound implications for the future of the single currency.


Subject The government's preferred timetable for the UK referendum on EU membership. Significance The EU membership referendum will be a major event in both EU and UK political and commercial life. Prime Minister David Cameron's official position is that the poll could take place any time before end-2017. He is less concerned about the likely outcome of the referendum, which he is confident will produce an 'in' result, than about achieving a margin in favour of membership that decisively settles the question and minimises the damage to the Conservative Party arising from the process. Impacts The most likely referendum date is September 15, 2016. This timetable would make the key renegotiation period the first half of 2016, when the sympathetic Dutch government chairs the EU Council. The German government would also prefer the UK referendum to be dealt with relatively quickly.


Significance This comes after the Telegraph reported last week that Soros had donated 400,000 pounds to the group. There is an ongoing debate as to whether the United Kingdom will in fact leave the EU. Central to it is the question of whether the UK government can unilaterally revoke its decision to trigger Article 50 in March 2017. Impacts Voters would be less likely to support the revocation of Article 50 if the Council imposed conditions that made membership less attractive. Revoking Article 50 and remaining in the EU would reduce damage to the UK economy. If Article 50 is revocable, Eurosceptic governments could be tempted to use the prospect of triggering it as leverage in EU negotiations.


Significance However, member states have the dominant foreign policy role in the EU. After Brexit, that will be France and Germany despite the United Kingdom insisting that it wants to maintain as close a relationship with the EU as possible. Impacts EU reformers will light on foreign policy as an area to drive forwarded integration. However, the EEAS lacks the competencies and institutional horsepower to be a force for integration. The strategic needs of the 27 post-Brexit EU members will be various, thus acting as a drag on integration. Smaller EU member states will see more advantage than larger ones in collectively pursuing foreign policy goals through Brussels. Larger member states will be unwilling to submit their national defence policies to greater EU authority.


Subject UK-EU trade talks. Significance The United Kingdom will leave the EU on January 31, 2020, but will abide by EU rules as part of the transition period, which runs to December 31, 2020. During this limited period of time, London and Brussels will seek to negotiate a permanent trading relationship. While the transition deadline can be extended, the UK government has committed not to seek an extension. Impacts The impact of no trade deal or a 'thin' one may force the UK government to increase taxes in order to meet spending pledges. UK financial services will rely on an equivalence deal with the EU; London hopes to agree this by mid-2020. The EU’s future trade policy will focus on having stronger sanction powers as well as legal ones for those that unfairly undercut EU firms.


Subject The impact of Brexit on the English-speaking Caribbean. Significance The Caribbean is a region with strong links to the United Kingdom that will be affected significantly by the UK voters' decision to leave the EU ('Brexit'). The region includes sovereign and non-sovereign countries and both groups will be affected, albeit in different ways. Impacts Caribbean concerns will not be a priority for either the United Kingdom or the EU. Uncertainty may further undermine already weak regional economies. CARICOM will need a new trade accord with the United Kingdom, its main export market.


Subject Reactions to Brexit among eastern EU member states. Significance Leaders of the Visegrad Group (V4) of the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia have called for a major institutional overhaul of the EU following the UK vote to leave the EU ('Brexit'). They singled out the EU's handling of the migration crisis as a key factor behind the 'Leave' victory in the UK referendum, and rejected calls from Brussels and several member states for closer integration, instead demanding that powers be repatriated to national capitals to restore citizens' trust and make the EU more democratically accountable. Impacts The V4 will seek to mend relations with Berlin, in the relatively favourable political constellation in Germany before the 2017 elections. V4 governments will aim to hold 'mini-lateral' consultations with the United Kingdom on the terms of its planned exit from the EU. Brexit will dominate Slovakia's EU presidency, with V4 coordinating their responses to help limit the negative fallout for the region.


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