Fiscal squeeze will slow Iraq oil sector expansion

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Oil Companies ◽  
Financial Difficulties ◽  
Oil Exports ◽  
Trade Sanctions ◽  
Oil Sector ◽  
State Group ◽  
Oil Revenues ◽  
The Impact

Subject The impact of a fiscal squeeze on oil sector investment. Significance Despite continuing turmoil in parts of the country, Iraq's oil exports are rising, averaging close to 3 million barrels a day (b/d) in March, the highest since 1990 when financial and trade sanctions were imposed after the occupation of Kuwait. April exports are on course to top 3 million b/d. Yet financial difficulties caused by the decline in global oil prices and the high cost of the war against the Islamic State group (ISG) are affecting the government's ambitious investment plans for the sector, prompting the oil ministry to request international oil companies (IOCs) in southern Iraq to scale back their expansion plans. Impacts Government plans to increase southern production from almost 3 million b/d to 8 million b/d by 2020 will need to be revised. Introduction of new heavy grade oil expands Iraq's oil marketing potential. Decline in oil revenues will lead to reduced government spending and a higher fiscal deficit in 2015.

Libya will fuel North Africa terrorism risk

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
North Africa ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Military Operations ◽  
Peace Agreement ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Terrorism Risk ◽  
Local Resources ◽  
Will Force ◽  
State Group ◽  
The Impact

Subject Effect of Libya on North Africa Significance The inability to produce a peace agreement in Libya and the prospect of a foreign intervention to counter the spread of Islamic State group (ISG) in the country raises questions on the impact this could have on Libya's North African neighbours. Impacts Military pressure on ISG in Libya will motivate the group to strike targets abroad to demonstrate its capabilities. ISG could use more sophisticated weapons against potential Western airstrikes and military operations. Insecurity in Libya will force its neighbours to maintain high levels of military spending at a time of lower government revenues. An influx of refugees into Tunisian and Algerian border areas could strain local resources.

Oil price to stay low in near and likely medium term

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil Price ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Transportation Demand ◽  
Profit Margins ◽  
Services Sector ◽  
Oil Companies ◽  
Financial Pressure ◽  
Global Economic Growth ◽  
Oil Revenues ◽  
The Impact

Subject Oil market dynamics. Significance The price of crude oil, already weakened by the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on demand, has plummeted this month after Russia refused to agree to further output cuts in coordination with OPEC. The plunge in the oil price will exert huge financial pressure on economies heavily dependent on oil revenues, including Saudi Arabia. Oil companies, particularly US shale oil producers, will also be under pressure. Impacts Budgetary pressures will sharply reduce petro-economies’ GDP growth this year, exerting a sizeable drag on global economic growth. Net importing nations will see little benefit from the sharp price drop until transportation demand recovers from the impact of COVID-19. Oil is losing market share in transportation usage, but cheap oil poses a risk to this; regulation will maintain the direction of travel. The oil services sector will face huge pressure on profit margins.

Crackdown will complicate economic reform in the Gulf

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Security Policy ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Civil Conflict ◽  
Political Freedom ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
External Threats ◽  
Employment Goals ◽  
State Group ◽  
The Impact

Subject Narrowing political freedom in the Gulf. Significance Political freedoms in the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states have been severely curtailed by a series of security policy responses to the 2011 Arab uprisings. Cyber crime laws have become more restrictive, the definition for terrorism much more expansive, and the six states have passed a controversial agreement coordinating internal security. Although the impact of the new measures has varied from one country to another, it has been most pronounced in Kuwait, which traditionally has had the most vocal and participatory political landscape. Impacts Intra-GCC security coordination will intensify as external threats such as the Islamic State group and the civil conflict in Yemen grow. Silencing of dissent reduces credibility of GCC representative bodies already afflicted by opposition boycott and low turnout. Gulf officials will emphasise the importance of political stability in justifying the political crackdown to Western counterparts. Such co-ordination will facilitate cross-border arrests, narrowing the space for political opposition across the Gulf. Intensification of patronage politics (through increased public sector employment) will undermine long-term employment goals for nationals.

South Sudan oil sector optimism is premature

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South Sudan ◽  
Oil Production ◽  
Peace Agreement ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Oil Companies ◽  
Oil Sector ◽  
Oil Revenues

Subject The performance and prospects of South Sudan’s oil sector. Significance The signing in September of a notional peace agreement has raised the question of whether South Sudan’s authorities can now boost oil production and revenues -- and whether they will use any new revenues to support peace. Impacts Output is unlikely to rise far above 130,000-150,000 b/d in 2019. Details about oil revenues and their distribution will remain largely hidden. Major oil companies will continue to shun South Sudan as an investment destination.

Saudi Arabia will check internal Islamic State threat

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Economic Transformation ◽  
Muslim World ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Suicide Bombings ◽  
Oil Sector ◽  
State Group

Significance His speech came a day after a series of suicide bombings, almost certainly carried out by Islamic State group (ISG)'s local affiliates. The attacks, intended to mark the end of the holy month of Ramadan, were largely unsuccessful, but were unusual due to their apparent nationwide coordination, and their targeting of one of Islam's holiest sites, the complex of the Prophet's Mosque in Medina. Impacts Continuing ISG attacks will reduce confidence in the economy, setting back the ambitious plan for economic transformation by 2030. However, the group's limited capabilities mean it is unlikely to pose a serious threat to business and the oil sector. The Medina attack is likely to damage ISG's standing among salafi-jihadists, and increase support for Saudi Arabia in the Muslim world.

Global counterterrorism focus will weaken free speech

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil Rights ◽  
Free Speech ◽  
Hate Speech ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Internet Freedom ◽  
Intermediary Liability ◽  
State Group ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Western Democracies

Subject The impact of the global focus on counterterrorism on free speech. Significance Calls for restrictions on online extremism and hate speech have risen amid the expansion of the so-called Islamic State group (ISG) and its use of online recruitment strategies. The terrorism threat has led to proposals to expand surveillance powers in several Western democracies, which are then used as justification to restrict civil rights in more restrictive countries. Impacts Proposals for private sector liability for online expression could erode global norms on free speech and internet freedom. It could also negatively affect businesses in countries where protections against intermediary liability have typically been strong. Venues online for anonymous speech are likely to become more limited amid the backlash against online extremism and terrorist attacks.

Baghdad will head off Basra autonomy bid

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil Recovery ◽  
Scale Up ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Energy Investment ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Role ◽  
Local Actors ◽  
The Government ◽  
State Group ◽  
Oil Revenues

Significance The increase reflects the introduction of the Basra Heavy oil grade at the start of June. With northern and western Iraq under Islamic State group (ISG) control, Basra is the last fully secure economic base of the government and the country's key strategic asset, facilitating over 80% of Iraq's oil revenues and nearly half its refining sector. Impacts Basra oil exports alone could rise to 3 million barrels per day towards the end of 2015. Western energy investment in the province will scale up. The federal government will struggle to contain muscular local actors from gaining a stronger political role. This could create complications for investors in the medium term. The key restraint for the growth of foreign investment is payment risk, with Baghdad struggling to pay oil recovery costs.

The mediation role of public governance in the relationship between entrepreneurship and economic growth

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 316-333
Author(s):  
Allam Mohammed Hamdan ◽  
Reem Khamis ◽  
Ammar Abdulla Al Hawaj ◽  
Elisabetta Barone
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
Entrepreneurial Activity ◽  
Public Governance ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National Economic ◽  
Oil Revenues ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate the mediation role of public governance in the relationship between entrepreneurship and economic growth in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Design/methodology/approach To achieve this aim, the study uses a 20-year time series analysis (1996–2015) and tests the effect of entrepreneurship on economic growth, through public governance, via a mediator model. Findings The study has determined that public governance buoys the positive effect that entrepreneurship activities exert on economic growth in the UAE. Based on this determination, the study posits a set of recommendations that focus on supporting entrepreneurship activities that play a significant role in economic growth. Originality/value The study adds to the literature on the impact of entrepreneurship on economies dependent on oil revenues vis-à-vis a public policy perspective. The study provides insights into the type of entrepreneurship that most efficaciously suits the Emirati social and cultural milieu in terms of fostering national economic growth. In addition, the study limns a vision of the role of public governance in creating an enabling environment that stimulates entrepreneurial activity and, in turn, increases economic growth in the Emirates.

Rise of Shia militias will reshape Iraqi politics

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
National Guard ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Power Struggle ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
State Group

Subject The rise of Iraq's Shia militias. Significance Shia militias, known as Popular Mobilisation Units (PMUs), are the most capable offensive forces at the federal government's disposal in its fight against Islamic State group (ISG). Yet Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi's cabinet only exercises limited control over these forces, many of which receive backing from Iran. While Iraq's battle against ISG is progressing steadily, the emergence of these powerful Shia militias could represent a larger medium-term challenge to state stability. Impacts Shia militias will probably be less effective in Sunni-only areas. Iraq boasts insufficient offensive forces to attack Mosul in the first half of 2015. The National Guard initiative will take months to be ratified in parliament. Politics in the oil-rich south will be complicated by a power struggle between Shia politicians and militia leaders.

Libya beheadings strengthen anti-Islamist agenda

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Air Force ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Armed Group ◽  
State Group

Significance The strikes were in response to a video released by the Islamic State group (ISG) yesterday showing the beheading of 21 Egyptian Copts who had been kidnapped from Sirte on two separate occasions on December 31 and January 3. Brigadier Saqer al-Joroushi, who commands the air force for the armed group of former General Khalifa Haftar, said the strikes were carried out in coordination between them and Egypt. He added that further strikes were going to take place. Impacts The beheadings are sharpening divisions within the moderate Islamist Libya Dawn camp. This might trigger a confrontation between its more moderate elements and the more radical ones. The killings will reinforce popular Egyptian support for Sisi and his anti-Islamist agenda.

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