South Africa urban reforms will weigh on 2016 election

Subject Urban governance in South Africa. Significance Amid preparations for 2016 local elections, the Treasury has warned that 86 out 278 municipalities are in "financial distress". Urban debt woes are causing fiscal risks elsewhere in the state apparatus, notably for power utility Eskom. Political interference in senior appointments and consequent high executive turnover and skills deficits are partly to blame. However, it is also clear that some municipalities are unviable. Impacts Municipalities in former 'homeland' areas will be hard to reform due to the added layer of government created by traditional chiefs. High wage demands from public sector unions may force municipalities to cut capital or maintenance spending, hurting service delivery. The fortunes of large cities such as Johannesburg will continue to diverge from smaller municipalities.

Significance Uncertainty persists over SAA’s turnaround strategy, as well as that for other ailing SOEs including arms manufacturer Denel and the Land Bank. Operational problems at troubled power utility Eskom have resulted in renewed ‘load shedding’ (power outages), hampering economic activity. Impacts More state funding for SAA could embolden public-sector unions in their ongoing pay dispute with government and undermine a recent IMF loan. The rumoured bolstering of the public enterprises minister's powers over SOE boards will raise fears of renewed political interference. SAA's retrenchment packages and related add-ons will set the bar high for other potential SOE retrenchment processes, most notably Eskom.


Author(s):  
Oswald Mhlanga

Purpose This paper aims to identify drivers of efficiency and their influence on airline performances in South Africa. Unfortunately, the methods currently used to measure airline efficiency fail to address the heterogeneity problem, which blurs inefficiency. Design/methodology/approach To remedy the heterogeneity problem, this paper adopts the meta-frontier framework to identify drivers of efficiency. The interesting feature of the model is that it ensures that heterogeneous airlines are compared based on one homogeneous technology. The model is tested using a panel data sample of nine South African airlines, which operated from 2015 to 2018. Findings The paper demonstrates that structural drivers, namely, “aircraft size”, and “airline ownership” and one executional driver, namely, “the cost structure” significantly influence (p < 0.05) airline efficiency thereby corroborating evidence from some prior studies. Research limitations/implications First, because of the small size of the industry, fewer airlines and a lack of detailed data, the study could not consider other important factors such as optimal routing and network structure. Second, a more rigorous analysis over a period of time would yield better understanding about the growth of the industry in South Africa and recognise the variation in the influence of drivers of efficiency on airline performances over time. Practical implications The results have potential policy implications. First, as the market in South Africa is too small to operate with a smaller aircraft probably, for airlines that operate with smaller aircraft to operate efficiently they should first identify niche markets where they can have a route monopoly. Second, while all state-owned airlines are perfect statehood symbols that define and represent countries, most state carriers in South Africa are highly inefficient. The researcher recommends policymakers to privatise state airlines or seek equity partners. Many nationalised airlines have turned losses to profits in the run-up to privatisation. British Airways, once a large burden on the British taxpayer, is now one of the world’s most efficient airlines. After the privatisation of Air France and Iberia, all two turned from loss-making concerns into profitable airlines. It, therefore, makes no sense for the South African government to expect state carriers to pursue a commercial mandate with such political interference. The very notion of efficiency itself is at risk. Originality/value This paper is a first attempt to identify drivers of operational efficiency using a bootstrapped meta-frontier approach in the airline industry in South Africa. By applying the meta-frontier approach the paper ensures that all heterogeneous airlines are assessed based on their distance from a common and identical frontier.


Subject Prospects for South Africa in 2020. Significance Fiscal woes and muted growth prospects are weighing heavily on President Cyril Ramaphosa’s government as it attempts to stabilise ailing state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and rein in public debt amid the prospect of further rating agency downgrades. Anti-corruption reforms are gaining momentum, while opposition parties undertake leadership changes and strategic manoeuvring ahead of the 2021 local elections.


Headline SOUTH AFRICA: Power utility probe will hit confidence


Significance The budget framework presented on February 20 provided a record 69-billion-rand (5-billion-dollar) rescue package for ailing power utility Eskom over three years. Despite measures to cut the large public-sector wage bill, growing revenue shortfalls have combined to lift deficit forecasts, while a longstanding expenditure ceiling has been raised. Impacts Plans to cap civil servants pay and perks will face opposition from the ANC’s trade union partners. An early retirement package for civil servants risks a possible exodus of more experienced and skilled staff. Efforts to overhaul SARS should result in improved revenue collection over the medium term but will prove costly in the interim.


Significance Tsotsi faces a potential no-confidence vote over his handling of the utility's mounting crises which are imperiling power supplies and recently spurred the utility's second 'junk' credit rating. On March 12, Tsotsi had persuaded the board to suspend the utility's top four executives but it now accuses him of acting in bad faith, possibly under pressure from powerful political interests. Impacts The suspended chief executive's reinstatement is unlikely to improve Eskom's performance given his lack of energy sector experience. Fiscal constraints will keep an expanded nuclear power programme a distant ambition. Governance woes may strengthen US moves on South Africa to increase physical security around its enriched uranium reserves.


Subject South Africa's upcoming credit rating and interest rate decisions. Significance Fitch Ratings yesterday said it would not downgrade South Africa to 'junk' when it conducts its mid-year sovereign credit rating review. This is despite structural weaknesses in the economy, uncertainty over the management of power utility Eskom and possible disruptive strikes. The relatively doveish South African Reserve Bank (SARB) will monitor closely the effects of a strengthening dollar on the wider economy. Impacts The Eskom board's plan to remove controversial chairman Zola Tsotsi could be complicated by his alleged links to President Jacob Zuma. The murky nuclear 'deal' with Russia allows the state to appear to have a long-term energy plan, but raises governance concerns. Frustration over Eskom's mismanagement could expedite legislation allowing greater state intervention, but this could worsen the problem. The fiscal shock of a high public wage settlement could be cushioned by a 'contingency fund', but risks incentivising future high demands.


Significance President Cyril Ramaphosa's government has been criticised for tardy and inefficient vaccine procurement, as well as lack of transparency and accountability. It has recently responded with a vigorous media offensive, which however remains notably short of specifics. Impacts Resolute leadership and a strongly focused outreach programme will be key to successful mass immunisation given notable vaccine hesistancy. A haphazard vaccination roll-out would hurt Ramaphosa and the ANC ahead of scheduled local elections later this year. Ramaphosa has promised undocumented migrants can receive COVID-19 vaccines, but many will be wary of attracting the authorities' attention.


2020 ◽  
Vol 47 (3) ◽  
pp. 547-560 ◽  
Author(s):  
Darush Yazdanfar ◽  
Peter Öhman

PurposeThe purpose of this study is to empirically investigate determinants of financial distress among small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) during the global financial crisis and post-crisis periods.Design/methodology/approachSeveral statistical methods, including multiple binary logistic regression, were used to analyse a longitudinal cross-sectional panel data set of 3,865 Swedish SMEs operating in five industries over the 2008–2015 period.FindingsThe results suggest that financial distress is influenced by macroeconomic conditions (i.e. the global financial crisis) and, in particular, by various firm-specific characteristics (i.e. performance, financial leverage and financial distress in previous year). However, firm size and industry affiliation have no significant relationship with financial distress.Research limitationsDue to data availability, this study is limited to a sample of Swedish SMEs in five industries covering eight years. Further research could examine the generalizability of these findings by investigating other firms operating in other industries and other countries.Originality/valueThis study is the first to examine determinants of financial distress among SMEs operating in Sweden using data from a large-scale longitudinal cross-sectional database.


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